The Algerian people are rising up against their president – but this is no Arab Spring 2.0

A mass street movement has forced President Bouteflika to back down from a fifth term – yet the potential for regime change is slim

Algerians have got what they asked for. They have finally forced the ailing president Abdelaziz Bouteflika to back down on his plans to run for president for the fifth time. Instead (and under the weight of the pressure from mass protests), he has decided to postpone the upcoming election while extending his fourth term.

This was Bouteflika’s intention from the beginning. He suffered a severe stroke which has forced him out of the spotlight since 2013, and since then his brother Said, and a very close circle around him (including army generals), are in effect running the country. Last week, it was reported in Switzerland, where he was being kept in intensive care unit, that he had lost the ability to speak and was close to death.

In the meantime, hundreds of thousands had taken to the streets asking him not to run in the election, which was supposed to take place in April. Yet it felt like Algerians, who suffered a bloody civil war between extremists and the army throughout the 1990s, were choosing their demands carefully. Hesitance could be sensed in protesters’ attitude and slogans. The Algerian people were not asking for regime change, however corrupt, outdated and incompetent the regime is. They were simply asking for a president with a different name.

Watching the celebrations and joy in all Algerian cities recalled the Arab Spring mood. Arabs, for the first time since 2011, appeared to be able to decide what their future should look like through a dash into the lion’s den. Throughout the past eight years, rulers in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and Tunisia could not help but use the fate of Syria, Yemen and Libya as part of a “project fear”. And it paid off.

The “Algerian Spring” is different to those previous uprisings. This nation has always maintained some sort of power balance between the regime and the people. There is a national anxiety towards challenging the government, based on the “dark decade” experience. Algerians endured an inert political reality under Bouteflika without protest for longer than their Arab cousins were able to – but that has finally changed. While young people in neighbouring rival Morocco are opening up to western culture, technology consumption and economic growth, Algerians were left behind to live in the past. Little has changed since the 1990s in the country under Bouteflika, who is part of the respected and long-lasting “old warriors”.

What we witnessed in the past three weeks is a healthy nation waking up – the street protests a limited but well-calculated bargain. It left no choice for the government but to accept its terms.

In Egypt, where the government seemed most rattled by developments in Algeria, it is a completely different story. Egypt is the hotspot where all attention turns to once people decide to take their demands to the streets anywhere in the region. It is the central gravity of change in the Middle East and North Africa. People who want revolution in the region look to Egypt for inspiration. They all know well they will inevitably be next.

But the people of the Arab Spring axis (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Yemen) are exhausted. They have experienced how their gutsy adventures can end up. They have witnessed vicious atrocities, bloody military conflicts, economic breakdowns and seen refugees disappear by the millions. None of the revolutions have truly achieved meaningful change. In fact, most of them have stumbled onto an even greater level of authoritarianism. A new brand where people are commonly killed or simply disappear.

Being tired of asking for change is the enemy of real transformation. Standing alone without assistance from abroad is another obstacle.

The Arab Spring was a spontaneous reaction to the figure of US president Barack Obama. The rise of a democratic and human rights defender to the White House can create a storm in the Middle East: the butterfly effect in action. Donald Trump’s existence in the White House is similarly heavily felt in the region. Activists are being locked up, tortured and losing their jobs. Trump is no inspiration for those in the Arab world.

In Algeria, Bouteflika has wrestled back the momentum. Last week his campaign manager announced, on behalf of the president, that after winning the fifth term he would stay in power for a year so as to help put a new regime and constitution in place, and maintain the country’s stability. In reality, he means the regime’s stability.

After further pressure he announced the big news late yesterday that the president is not going to run for a fifth term. The Algerian people have forced a concession but the outcome will not be that different from the president’s initial promise. Instead of cutting the fifth term down to a year, he is just extending the fourth term by a year.

This is not Arab Spring 2.0. While key nations are in turmoil and occupied by a sense of uncertainty and fear, it could take quite some time before another all-out mutiny in the Middle East and North Africa.

The fact that nothing has changed since 2011 still irritates young Arabs, but luckily, for their rulers, they still seem tired – at least for now.