Care about the economy more than anything else this election? Abortion bans and gun crime are costing us billions

A recent study found that since the Supreme Court overturned Roe, the 16 states with near-total abortion bans have cost the US economy $68 billion a year

People gather outside of the Berkeley Art Museum and Pacific Film Archive to watch the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (AP)

On Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee for president Donald Trump met face-to-face in Pennsylvania for what was the first (and, according to the former president, likely to be the only) debate between the two political rivals.

ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis kicked off the debate with a question about the economy and the cost of living. In response, Harris touted her plan to provide a $6,000 tax cut for families who have just had a baby — what she described as “the largest child tax credit that we have given in a long time” and one that will allow working class parents to afford “a crib, buy a car seat” and “to buy clothes for their children.” She also described her plan to give a $50,000 tax deduction to start-up small businesses, while touching on housing prices and touting her childhood as a “middle-class kid.”

Trump rambled on about tariffs before pivoting to immigration — his go-to response throughout the debate — and regurgitating debunked, racist lies about immigrants “taking over towns,” “destroying our country,” and eating pets in Ohio.

It’s not surprising that Muir and Davis would begin the debate with the economy — according to recent polling, nearly four in 10 voters say “the economy and inflation” is the most important issue determining their vote come November. But what debate moderators, political pundits and both presidential candidates often fail to mention is that abortion access is an economic issue. And while it was certainly true before the Supreme Court desecrated more than 50 years of legal precedent, the cost of living in a post-Roe world is a strain on our nation’s economy.

Studies have long shown that when a person is denied access to abortion care, they are four times more likely to live below the federal poverty level and therefore more likely to rely on government assistance programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or Medicare. In 2021, state and local governments spent $862 billion on public welfare — the majority of which covered medical care payments to various vendors.

(For the record, in 2023 the United States allocated $816 billion to its defense budget — that’s more than the next nine countries combined. Public assistance programs are vital, full stop.)

Another recent study conducted by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research found that since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, the 16 states with near-total abortion bans have cost the US economy $68 billion a year. According to the study, the increase in cost is associated with a “reduced labor force participation and lower earnings for women,” as well as “higher employee turnover rates and more lost work hours.”

Studies also show that states with severe abortion restrictions have higher maternal mortality rates, higher rates of pregnancy complications and higher infant mortality rates. In Texas, the state’s near-total abortion ban — enacted prior to the unprecedented Dobbs decision — has subsequently caused a rise in infant deaths.

One 2023 analysis of states hostile to abortion found that those states had 12,911 more maternal mortalities, 7,518 more hysterectomies, 234,376 more cesarean deliveries, over 102,000 more hospital readmissions, 93,911 more neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions, and more than 3,000 more infant deaths — all totaling $34.2 million in higher health care costs per year.

Women who are denied abortion care are also more likely to experience adverse mental health outcomes, like depression and anxiety, contributing to an estimated $282 billion in economic costs annually, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In other words, these dire outcomes — in addition to costing people their physical and mental health, often their reproductive futures and in many cases their lives — cost money.

Of course, abortion care is not the only “social issue” that negatively impacts our nation’s economy. According to one 2021 study, the health care costs directly associated with a single act of gun violence costs $1 billion annually. In 2020, medical care costs for victims of gun violence totaled $290 million. The short- and long-term cost of mental health care treatment for survivors and victims families reached an estimated $225 billion in 2019 alone.

The cost of a single life lost to gun violence each year? Incalculable.

When LGBTQ+ youth who are not accepted by their family, friends and community, they are more likely to experience anxiety, depression, and suicidal ideation. The economic cost of suicide and nonfatal self-harm averages $510 billion annually, according to one study. 

The cost of a single LGBTQ+ life lost to bigotry and hatred each year? Incalculable.

And while Republicans continue to demonize trans people, a study published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine found that it is cost-effective to pay for gender-affirming care. In fact, the cost is no higher than the cost of depression treatment, substance abuse programs and paying to treat other negative outcomes associated with denying a trans person their innate identity.

So when voters say they care about the economy, knowingly or unknowingly they are also caring about access to abortion care, the epidemic of gun violence and the rights of LGBTQ+ people — the “social issues” that media outlets and political talking heads like to exclude from the so-called “kitchen table.”

And until this country provides unfettered access to abortion care, passes common-sense gun laws that protect communities, and honors the humanity of LGBTQ+ Americans, the cost to this nation’s moral compass and its bottom line will not only remain; it will increase.