Even Diane Abbott has split from Corbyn over Brexit – so why won’t he back Remain and save his party?

If there were a new referendum, it is inconceivable that Labour would do anything but campaign to stay in the EU, so the party will have to say so soon enough

Jeremy Corbyn surprised some members of his close circle at the shadow cabinet meeting on Tuesday by putting off a decision on Labour’s Brexit policy. This was not what John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, predicted.

He had told a City audience the day before to expect “white smoke”, and said: “Out of shadow cabinet tomorrow I’m hoping that a more definitive position will emerge.”

And this morning Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, replied to a Labour supporter on Twitter: “Like you I have supported Labour’s Brexit strategy so far. But like you I am beginning to worry…” How strange to comment in public – and in the past tense – as if she is simply an interested spectator.

McDonnell and Abbott are not the usual pro-EU advocates of a second referendum on Labour’s backbenches: they are two of Corbyn’s most trusted comrades on the long march from the margins of ultra-leftism.

Yet the Labour leader seems to be listening more to other close allies, such as Seumas Milne, his director of communications and strategy, and Len McCluskey, leader of the Unite union, who have been resistant to an explicit policy in favour of a new referendum in which Labour would campaign to remain in the EU.

Yesterday, Corbyn’s spokesperson said it was wrong to suggest that the Labour leader was being dictated to by one group or another: “Jeremy is quite capable of taking his own decisions and the idea that he’s under the control of anyone else is laughable.”

Unfortunately for the leader’s spokesperson, it had already been reported that Corbyn told the shadow cabinet he was still trying to persuade Unite and the Communication Workers Union to accept a more explicit policy of remaining in the EU. And McDonnell’s comment in the shadow cabinet meeting that the policy was “like a slow-moving car crash” had also leaked.

Corbyn’s spokesperson said: “He’s trying to find a common position that people can row behind in the next few weeks.” He both hinted that the policy would change – “If we’re going to move the position further …” – and explained why it was so hard to change it: “We are committed to respecting the referendum result.”

Fending off repeated questions from journalists, he said: “The country voted for leaving the EU – that component of our policy is there on the table.” But the priority at the moment was “the campaign against a no-deal Brexit”, he said.

As I understand it, the debate in the Labour leader’s inner circle is more subtle than is often portrayed. It is not really a split between hardcore EU-sceptics and Remainers. McDonnell, Abbott and Corbyn have all long regarded opposition to EU membership as one of the core features of what they think of as true socialism.

Today’s disagreement is about electoral politics. McDonnell and Abbott think Labour has to move towards Remain to see off the threat from the Liberal Democrats and Greens – adding their support together, the two Remainer parties are outpolling Labour by 26 per cent to 24 per cent.

Other Corbyn advisers say that such a move would lose Labour votes from people who supported Leave in the 2016 referendum, without necessarily winning back the votes lost to Remainer parties. McDonnell is believed to have responded with frustration, saying that the longer the party dithers over the policy, the harder it will be to win back voters who want to stay in the EU.

My view is that it is too late for Corbyn to turn back now. Last week he committed the party to a “public vote” – and plainly meant a referendum rather than a general election – on “any Brexit deal”. If there were a new referendum, it is inconceivable that Labour would do anything but campaign for Remain, so the party will have to say so soon enough.

What is more, Labour has little chance of fishing for Leave votes at the next general election, whether that is an early one triggered by the new prime minister, or one as late as 2022. Voters who feel strongly about leaving the EU are mostly going to choose between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.

Three quarters of Labour voters, and nine in 10 party members, now want to stay in the EU. There is only one way the party is going to go.