Travel Question: Flybe, or fly bust?

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The beleaguered airline is looking for buyers – is booking wise? (Simon Calder)

Q Shall I hold off booking Flybe flights for next summer in case they go bust?

Andy C

A Europe’s biggest regional airline is going into a difficult winter. Flybe is on course to lose £22m by next March, and says it is talking to possible buyers as it struggles to limit its losses.

The airline has two big strategic problems. First, it is competing for passengers with Europe’s two budget giants, easyJet and Ryanair. Once Flybe has built up a link to a sizeable scale, then a bigger airline with lower costs moves in and takes all the market. So routes which should be a natural for a regional airline like Flybe, such as Glasgow or Edinburgh to Bristol, have now been taken over by easyJet. Then there’s Air Passenger Duty. On an Aberdeen-Belfast City flight costing £80 return, almost one-third goes straight to the chancellor in tax. That doesn’t leave much for aircraft leases, fuel and crew. So no wonder Flybe is hurting and looking for a partner.

The company also says it is reviewing other “strategic options”, including cutting more routes.

As a result I would be surprised if every Flybe flight that is currently on sale for the summer of 2019 actually takes off. I think it unlikely that the airline will cease to exist – the fact that several potential suitors are talking indicates it has value – but the current route network is an odd shape. I think the central core of routes from the south coast (Exeter and Southampton) through Birmingham and Manchester to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow will endure, because it is an efficient and coherent network. The Channel Islands services should mostly also look the same. But I would be surprised if, say, Cardiff, Doncaster-Sheffield and Norwich continue to have the same scale of Flybe operations as they do now.

That wouldn’t stop me booking a ticket – using a credit card ensures there will be no financial loss – but using flights from those airports I would be cautious about committing to other travel purchases, such as car rental or accommodation, until nearer the time.

Every day our travel correspondent Simon Calder tackles a reader’s question. Just email yours to s@hols.tv or tweet @simoncalder