Post-Brexit travel: a flight of fancy

Have a question? Ask our expert Simon Calder

Ryanair can announce new routes because it’s not a British company (AFP/Getty)

Q You have said that in the event of no deal British airlines will not be able to increase the number of flights to the European Union. Will the EU be able to increase the number of flights into Britain after 2019? If so, why are they able to do so? Why can the EU increase their flights and not Britain?

Peter C

A I studied the EU’s proposals for a “bare bones” aviation agreement in the event of a no-deal Brexit with mounting alarm, as I saw that departures on UK airlines to the European Union would be capped at 2018 levels.

“The total seasonal capacity to be provided by UK air carriers for routes between the United Kingdom and each member state shall not exceed the total number of frequencies operated by those carriers on those routes during, respectively, the IATA [International Air Transport Association] winter and summer seasons of the year of 2018,” says Brussels.

The reason for my concern: air travel from the UK to the EU is planned to increase significantly next year, with British Airways, easyJet and Jet2 among the British airlines planning new routes and increased frequencies. And the rules stipulate individual states – such as Spain, Portugal and Greece – should negotiate separate “sweetheart” deals on flights. As you observe, these apply only to British carriers. That means Ryanair – which yesterday announced new or restored routes from Stansted to Kalamata, Rodez and Vigo – can continue to expand as it is an Irish airline.

The UK government could, of course, retaliate with a similar cap. But that would reduce choice and increase fares still further, and is unlikely to prove popular in a nation deeply split on Brexit. In addition, since the 1980s the British government has championed competition in aviation. And an effort to demonstrate that the UK appears open and outward-looking is hardly likely to be enhanced by telling foreign airlines not to fly here.

UK airlines, of course, hope that a transition deal will be signed to allow them to continue to flourish.

Every day our travel correspondent Simon Calder tackles a reader’s question. Just email yours to s@hols.tv or tweet @simoncalder