No zero-risk flight paths left over Middle East, aviation group warns

Ops Group warns of dangers ranging from Houthi rebel attacks to air traffic control overload

Risk assessment: Ops Group map of Middle East airspace (Ops Group)

A flight operations group has warned that the conflict in the Middle East is presenting serious challenges for pilots navigating the airspace around Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran

Passenger aviation has never been safer but “there simply is no ‘risk-zero’ route available” says Ops Group, an international membership organisation for pilots and other aviation staff.

The group has published a blog called Dodging Danger: The Three Routes Through the Middle East.

The writer, Chris Shieff, says: “It no longer seems to be a simple question of ‘is this route safe?’ but instead, of one’s own appetite for known risks.”

The article analyses the three routes that are currently being used by major airlines: south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia, central via Turkey and eastern Iraq, or north over the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan.

All of them avoid territory rated by Ops Group as Do Not Fly. But each has drawbacks.

South

This track “avoids the potential for a sudden escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran” and offers safer diversion options.

But Ops Group warns of potential risks associated with Houthi rebels in western Yemen firing missiles aimed at Israel.

“This essentially creates three risks to overflying aircraft – a direct hit by a missile (extremely unlikely), debris fields from inflight break ups or successful interceptions, and misidentification,” the blog warns.

Another risk is posed by the sheer popularity of the southern route, leading to air-traffic control overload. Ops Group says one flight crew reported that they had been unable to talk to controllers “during an entire portion between the north coast of Egypt to the Red Sea”.

Central

“The overriding question from this route is: ‘Is it safe to overfly Iraq?’ In our opinion, yes but with some disclaimers,” says Ops Group.

“Extensive GPS interference (including spoofing) can be expected in northern Iraq and on at least one occasion has led an aircraft to almost inadvertently enter Iranian airspace without a clearance.”

GPS interference is also a problem in Turkish airspace, “especially anywhere near the border with Iran or Iraq”.

North

This is the favoured route between Europe and Asia, crossing northern Turkey or the southern Black Sea, Georgia, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan. Planes bound for east Asia – destinations such as Hong Kong, Seoul and Tokyo – typically continue over the “Stans” along routes that are not regarded as hazardous. But aircraft destined for south Asia, particularly India, often fly over Afghanistan. The nation’s airspace has been uncontrolled since the Taliban takeover in 2021.

Flights traverse Afghanistan many times a day without problems. The main concern of Ops Group is the risk of having to land in the country in the event of engine failure, fuel shortage or depressurisation.