No-deal Brexit would mean flight numbers capped at 2018 levels, causing more travel uncertainty

The man who pays his way: Whatever Brexiteers say, there are still more questions than answers when it comes to travel after 29 March

You and I elected them, so ultimately the political pantomime currently draining the spirit from the nation and extracting the joy from daily life is our fault.

But with every day that MPs squabble dishonourably or stay unhelpfully silent over Brexit, uncertainty about travel after 29 March increases.

The essence of travel is overcoming barriers to find what lies beyond. The hurdles may be prosaic, such as festive rail engineering work linking arms with strikes and staff shortages to defeat all but the bravest attempts to travel by train over Christmas and the new year, and battling through the crowds and checkpoints at one of Britain’s drone-prone airports. Or they may be emotional barricades: cultural, linguistic or even gastronomic frontiers, all of which ultimately enrich the traveller.

The essence of Brexit is building barriers. The “Why vote leave?” page of the official Brexit campaign depicts an old hard-cover British passport and the assertion: “We’ll be in charge of our own borders.” (You’ll find it immediately after the claim “We will be able to save £350m a week” for priorities like the NHS.)

Some of the 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU may say they were motivated by lowering barriers to the rest of the world. But fundamentally, travel and Brexit conflict.

UK passport holders currently enjoy complete freedom to travel in Europe. But after the Brexiteers achieve their aim, the EU will take back control. With the Labour Party leadership calling only for a different deal, we should assume Brexit will happen one way or the other.

For British travellers, therefore, the vital question is: what will those barriers be? Eleven weeks before Brexit, there are still many more questions than answers.

Joe Herron, for example, asks: “We are travelling to France in June and staying for 96 days. Do we need a visa for the extra days?”

While I am delighted that Joe has plans to spend over three months in France, frontier staff may not be. All I could advise was: with so much uncertainty, plan for no more than 90 days, and even then be prepared to show evidence to border officials about how you plan to support yourselves during that time.

I thought about adding: for more advice, ask your MP. But our elected representatives appear to have a shakier grasp of the knowns, unknowns and perhapses than many of their constituents.

For proof, look no further than the pronouncements of the transport secretary, Chris Grayling.

Most of us reach the European Union by air. With the looming possibility of a no-deal Brexit, the EU issued its conditions for flights by UK airlines to Europe to continue. Mr Grayling seized upon this to assure the public: “Whether for business or leisure, travellers can continue to book with confidence.”

The trouble is: this assertion is as easily disprovable as the fib about £350m extra a week for the NHS.

Anyone who actually reads the European Union’s conditions will realise that any such confidence is sadly misplaced for flights on UK airlines to the EU after 29 March 2019. The default position is that flights will continue – but with no increase on 2018 numbers.

UK airlines operated around 80,000 flights to Spain last summer. But the no-deal cap means that number cannot be increased. So while Jet2 promises “more flights and holidays to popular destinations such as Spain, Portugal, Canary Islands, Balearic Islands …” it may not be able to deliver.

Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the International Air Transport Association, warned this week that this lack of certainty “will create significant disruption with travellers being unable to fly and airlines unable to honour​ booked tickets”. The impact? “With European passenger capacity estimated to increase by 6.1 per cent in 2019 it is clear it will be very significant.”

January is usually an excellent month for surveying the year ahead and planning journeys. Not in 2019, if you are aiming for Europe.

One absolute certainty: as Brexiteers know full well, there will be no return to the old, hard-cover British passport. It’s nothing to do with Brussels – the International Civil Aviation Organisation in Montreal prescribes the size, shape and flexibility of travel documents. The idea is to make global movement smoother, swifter and more certain. Brexit seems designed to do the opposite.