The silver lining to a no-deal Brexit? Cheap booze and tobacco

The Man Who Pays His Way: Never mind a possible shortage of food and medical supplies, the days of the Dover-Calais booze cruise are back

“The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage.” With that understatement, Emperor Hirohito announced his nation’s surrender on 15 August 1945, bringing the Second World War to a conclusion.

As the UK government brings Brexit to a conclusion on 31 October 2019, it warns: “Day one of exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend, which is not to our advantage.”

The inconvenient reality that the first day of the UK outside the EU is also the busiest travel day of the week is one of many alerts revealed in HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions. This is not a pessimistic holiday brochure, but the Operation Yellowhammer no-deal Brexit document that the government was obliged to publish this week.

However you voted and whatever your view on the UK leaving the European Union, it could be to your travelling advantage to compare and contrast this sensitive document with the official and upbeat travel advice about a no-deal Brexit. The government is seeking assure travellers that ferries from Dover, Eurotunnel shuttles and Eurostar trains from London St Pancras “will be able to run as before”.

Yet we learnt this week from the worst-case assumptions that they very much may not be able to run as before: “UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover.”

Meanwhile, airline passengers to Europe (of whom there are tens of millions) and lorry drivers (numbered in the thousands) find themselves bundled into the same statement of reassurance from the Department for Transport this month: “Flights and road haulage will continue to run smoothly after the UK leaves the EU on 31 October, whatever the circumstances.”

Well, the publication of Operation Yellowhammer suggests this is an unusual use of the word “smooth”.

“In a reasonable worst case scenario,” we are told, truck drivers could face delays of two-and-a-half days.

While airline passengers are unlikely to be held up for so long, the government believes: “It is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports.”

At least travellers will be able to fill the time with some light shopping. HM Treasury promises a silver lining to the Brexit clouds.

“Duty-free shopping with the EU is coming back, if we leave without a deal.”

Elsewhere in Whitehall, the Department of Health warns: “The risk of developing a range of health problems (including cancers of the mouth, throat and breast) increases the more you drink on a regular basis.” And as for tobacco: “Smoking is the leading cause of premature death.”

Nevertheless the Treasury, which collects taxpayers’ money, has spent some of it producing a catchy little ad promoting the Brexit price cut for alcohol and cigarettes.

As a jaunty series of drinks, including a foaming beer and a glass of red wine, parades across the screen, we are told: “People travelling to EU countries will be able to buy beer, spirits, wine and tobacco without duty being applied in the UK.”

Never mind a possible shortage of food and medical supplies: the days of the Dover-Calais booze cruise are back. Anyone would think there was an election on the horizon.