Boeing 737 Max: When will it return to service and can passengers avoid flying on one?

Almost one in three respondents to a Twitter poll said they would never fly on the troubled aircraft

The biggest aviation tragedy of 2019 was the crash on 10 March of a Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max.

Flight ET302 plunged into the ground shortly after take off from Addis Ababa airport, and 157 passengers and crew lost their lives.

Within a few days, the Max was grounded worldwide when investigators identified similarities with a Lion Air crash involving the same aircraft type in 2018.

It became clear that in both accidents, flight control software known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) had forced the nose of the aircraft down despite the flight crew doing all they could to save the plane.

The system was triggered by a faulty reading from the “angle of attack” sensor, which measures the angle between the airflow and the wing.

Safety regulators across the world banned the Boeing 737 Max and it remains grounded.

Since then Boeing has been working to make the plane safe, and is now working on plans to calm travellers’ fears about flying on the jet. But a Twitter poll conducted by The Independent suggests that many passengers will be reluctant to fly on the 737 Max – at least until it has flown for some time without incident.

These are the key questions.

What safety improvements is Boeing making?

The company says: “We’ve redesigned how the airplane’s angle of attack sensors work. Now, MCAS compares information from both sensors—instead of one—before activating, adding a new layer of protection.

“Also, MCAS will now only activate once and will never provide more input than the pilot can counteract using the control column alone.”

The changes have been evaluated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in a flight simulator “to ensure that the overall software system performs its intended function”.

There will also need to be a certification flight test with FAA pilots. Then the Joint Operational Evaluation Board, comprised of senior 737 Max pilots and safety officials from around the world, will assess the changes and proposed training.

The Flight Standardization Board will release a report for a public comment, before training is finally approved.

When will the Max fly passengers again?

Boeing initially predicted that the 737 Max would be flying again by the end of 2019. That deadline was missed. Some senior aviation figures suggest that the aircraft will not be back in service for at least a year. But the planemaker hopes it will secure approval by early 2020.

Even when the aircraft is cleared to fly, it will take some time for the 47 airlines with Max aircraft to prepare the 370-plus grounded planes for service.

One of the biggest airlines flying the type, American, says it expects to its Max aircraft to be airborne again by 7 April 2020.

Another giant carrier, Southwest, has removed the aircraft from its flying plans until 13 April.

But United says it will not fly the Max until June at the earliest.

Ryanair, the biggest European customer with 210 of a special high-capacity variation known as the Boeing 737 Max 200, says it may not start to take delivery of the new plane until May – or possibly not at all this year.

How do travellers feel about flying on the Boeing 737 Max?

When the Max returns to service, it will be the most closely inspected aircraft in aviation history. Personally I will have no concerns about flying on the Boeing 737 Max again.

But I am firmly in a minority, at least according to the Twitter poll I am conducting.

Out of more than 1,600 self-selecting responses in the first three hours, only one in four travellers say they would trust the experts and fly confidently on the plane.

Forty-four per cent of respondents want to wait and see if the aircraft performs safely for a year or two.

But the remaining 31 per cent say they will never fly on the aircraft.

What is Boeing recommending airlines do?

In a draft publication entitled “Customer journey and scenario map,” obtained by the New York Times, a series of scenarios imagines a passenger who discovers they are scheduled to fly on a Boeing 737 Max – or even already onboard. The document sets out options for “Possible Airline Passenger Support” .

The support includes “information on the safety of the Max” but also offering “to discuss alternative travel arrangements if the passenger is still anxious”. That would mean re-routing a passenger on other aircraft types – even if they’re about to get on the plane.

Will airlines follow that advice?

Some will. The outgoing boss of United Airlines said last month that if a passenger is booked on Max, they will “make it very transparent” about the aircraft type.

Oscar Muñoz added: “If they are not happy, we will offer to rebook them, even if they take that decision at the gate.”

But Ryanair will not allow flexibility. When I raised the prospect of passenger resistance to the Boeing 737 Max with the chief executive, Michael O’Leary, he told me: “Will anyone know or care? Frankly, I don’t think they will.” And he said anyone who chooses not to fly will be unable to claim a refund.

How can prospective passengers pre-check the aircraft type online?

It’s tricky. Airlines generally have a good idea of the plane type they plan to use, and some carriers will happily tell you their intentions for resourcing a particular flight almost a year in advance.

For example, American Airlines says all its flights in November 2020 between Orlando and Dallas will use the Airbus A321.

But aircraft assignments can be affected by unscheduled maintenance and delays caused by poor weather or air-traffic control.

Mr O’Leary told me passengers cannot discover in advance whether their journey is to be served with a 737-800 – Ryanair’s only current aircraft – or a Max: “You won’t know, because on average you book seats on Ryanair six to eight weeks in advance of travel.

“We only do the aircraft allocations the night before, because we don’t know which aircraft is where.”

In 2020, though, very few passengers will be flying on the plane, because only a fraction of airlines’ fleets are made up of the Max.

And is it possible to avoiding the prospect completely?

To reduce the risk, you could book on an airline with no Boeing 737 Max aircraft – which includes easyJet, Jet2 or British Airways. Even though BA’s parent company has signed a “Letter of Intent” for some Max aircraft, even if this turns into a firm order they won’t arrive for years.

But 100 per cent certainty is impossible, because airlines always reserve the right to substitute aircraft types, chartered in from other carriers. And they won’t give a refund if you don’t want to fly on the replacement.