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NFL Playoffs preview: Patrick Mahomes faces Tom Brady in quarterback passing of the guard

The consensus MVP of the regular season aims to guide the Kansas City Chiefs past Tom Brady and the formidable New England Patriots to the Super Bowl

Ed Malyon
Saturday 19 January 2019 14:57 GMT
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Patrick Mahomes celebrates at Arrowhead Stadium
Patrick Mahomes celebrates at Arrowhead Stadium

As the Kansas City Chiefs look to knock the New England Patriots off their perch this Sunday in the AFC Championship game; as the clock ticks down on the MVP, Patrick Mahomes, trying to navigate his way past one of sport’s greatest-ever dynasties and into the Super Bowl, the cameras will suddenly turn to the skies.

With around two minutes to go in Kansas City, amid the icy chill of an expected ‘arctic blast’ that will likely cover Arrowhead Stadium in snow for the second week running, the moon will suddenly become the main attraction.

Not just any moon, but a ‘Super Blood Wolf Moon’.

While that may sound like the latest book in the Twilight series or a particularly ferocious craft ale, the real reason people will be looking to the heavens is for a rare lunar eclipse that will see a bumper-sized, crimson-coloured moon disappear as it passes through the Earth’s shadow.

It will be the first total lunar eclipse visible in its entirety across the USA since 2010.

Why is that relevant to the playoffs? Well, because match-ups like the ones this weekend only pop up once in a blue moon – the MVP against the GOAT. The unstoppable force against a force unstoppable.

Perhaps most importantly, both the NFC Championship game and the AFC Championship games will feature clearly the best two teams from each conference after the first couple of weeks of the playoffs went off with few surprises.

That is sometimes a bad thing, with the helter-skelter ride of the post-season and the one-and-done nature of its games provoking such drama and heartbreak when compared to the multi-game series’ favoured by other American sports. But that also sometimes allows weaker teams to sneak through, while this season we have the best four battling it out for a place in the Super Bowl. It is, in short, as championship weekend should be.

Few could question the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints as the distant top two of a high-quality NFC this season, and similarly the Chiefs and Patriots have obviously been the best couple of teams in a slightly weaker, transitioning AFC.

Perhaps it is fitting, too, that this AFC Championship game may prove to be a transitioning of power from one dynasty to another.

Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to the championship game

What Patrick Mahomes has done in Kansas City this season was so remarkable from the first week to the last that people have almost lost sight of how special he has been, but we shouldn’t fall into that trap of glossing over superstardom. At 23, in his first full campaign, he has put together the best season ever seen by a Chiefs quarterback and it’s not particularly close. He became only the second QB of all-time to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a season. Once again, it was his first as a starter.

Mahomes could be the face of the NFL for the next decade, not just eminently watchable as a quarterback but someone who you simply can’t take your eyes off, a player that makes your jaw drop.

In just his second season as a professional, Mahomes has been the league’s best player and will, barring a shock, be crowned the MVP at NFL Honors night on the eve of the Super Bowl in Atlanta. He hopes to be there anyway as a contender but first he must navigate his way past a Patriots defensive unit coached by the greatest of his generation, Bill Belichick, and an offense helmed by five-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady.

The Chiefs are favourites, with home advantage and their explosive play all season making them a popular pick. Nobody ever wants to write off the Pats though, not with their record in the playoffs, not with an all-time great quarterback and head coach. Indeed, in Brady’s 17 healthy career seasons he has guided the Pats to the AFC Championship game 13 times. That record speaks of a player who shows up when the lights are brightest and one who we know will perform. Mahomes faces the biggest game of his career against an all-time great team coming to the end of its cycle. How close that end is will be more clearly defined on Sunday night.

There is no denying that this isn’t a vintage Patriots team though. Rob Gronkowski has been a key difference-maker for this team when it matters over the years but his powers are clearly on the wane. Trading away Brandin Cooks last year and losing Josh Gordon has deprived Brady’s wide receiver corps of genuinely game-breaking speed. Defensively and on the offensive line they rely on scheme to mask a deficiency of talent.

And yet that shouldn’t really be a negative. Being one of the best-coached teams in the league shouldn’t count against the Pats it just makes you wonder if some of their players can continue to perform above their natural level, elevated by a gaggle of hall-of-famers on the field and the sideline.

Up against the Chiefs, who pose such a unique threat, Belichick will need to be at his best.

Fortunately for those in New England, Belichick has a favourable record against the permanently unlucky Andy Reid and particularly so in the post-season. Reid has arguably never coached a team this strong though, so full of talent and so clearly dominant. His offensive playcalling this season has tested the limits of what people expect in the NFL, Mahomes has tested the limits of what people thought possible in the NFL and in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs boast two elite playmakers. That’s a frightening recipe.

How they use Hill – a devastatingly speedy receiver who has sneakily emerged as one of the league’s best – and Kelce will likely define this match-up. Hill is used in pre-snap motion to keep opposition defenses honest, reveal play calls and isolate men in coverage. Stacking the speedster Hill on top of a match-up nightmare in Kelce provides opponents with impossible decisions – who do you follow? How do you cope with Hill’s raw speed? How can you muscle out somebody like Kelce?

Tom Brady led the Patriots to victory over the Chargers 

The Patriots’ strategy will almost certainly be to try and force Mahomes to check down on offense, offering him short-yardage gains while on the other side of the ball committing to a rushing attack that stretches Kansas City’s questionable defense.

Sony Michel, James White and James Develin will play crucial roles in the running game if the Patriots are to win, while Chris Jones is going to have to dominate at the line of scrimmage to stop that ground game from being established.

With so many moving parts, this game promises to be a fascinating match-up between two brilliant teams capable of the extraordinary. It is the sort of game that comes around once in a blue moon, and while the cameras may turn to the skies as we draw to a conclusion, this is not the sort of post-season encounter you’ll be able to take your eyes off.

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