UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Smith preview - Why wisdom will prove key in exciting light-heavyweight clash

UFC commentator and analyst Dan Hardy looks ahead to this weekend’s event, as the Octagon returns to Hamburg with a card featuring plenty of British talent

loI’m back on a plane to another European UFC event. This time it’s Germany and the beautiful city of Hamburg. One half of the headlining bout is a UFC and Pride FC veteran and one of the most well-respected light heavyweights ever to grace the Octagon.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was only a young man when he started his professional MMA career, spending his days training at the world renowned Chute Boxe gym in Curitiba, Brazil, alongside some of the best Brazilian fighters in combat sports. Back in the Pride FC days, Chute Boxe was the gym to beat if you wanted ultimate bragging rights. Shogun and his brother “Ninja” were the second wave of monsters to enter the Pride ring but the first wave had set the tone for any Chute Boxe gym fighters before the fight even started.

Their leading man at the time was Wanderlei Silva, a viciously aggressive Muay Thai striker who was as dangerous with his hands as he was with his kicks and knees. He was reckless and overwhelming in his approach and the Japanese fans loved it. His nickname was "The Axe Murderer” and he brought an animalistic style to the arena which was difficult to deal with no matter how skilled you were. Occasionally we would see video clips of the infamous sparring sessions in the Chute Boxe gym and that just added to their intimidating aura. A room full of heavily muscled fighters fighting each other as if there was one meal ticket between 10 of them.

While Wanderlei was the focus of these videos in the beginning, people began to recognise his sparring partners and when Shogun made his Pride debut way back in 2003 there was much anticipation. Just like his team mate, Shogun was wildly ferocious. Where Wanderlei would stay planted to the floor to throw heavy hands and clinch for his knee attack, Shogun was much more likely to propel himself through the air, knee first, and just figure out what happened from the point of contact. Much like many high level fighters have a plan and a well thought out approach, it seemed that the whole Chute Boxe team just came for war, no matter what happened.

This gained the gym an incredible following as we knew that anyone who emerged from that gym as a professional MMA fighter was a force to be reckoned with. Now Shogun is one of the elder statesmen of that facility and we have since seen the likes of Cris Cyborg and Thomas Almeida come onto the scene and represent well. The level of technical ability has been improving steadily over the years and although the team has maintained that ‘berserker’ style of fighting, now they can do it with precision and planning.

The standards set by the early Chute Boxe fighters is still maintained by the more recent generations and I feel in recent years that Shogun has also elevated his game to keep up with the sport. We have seen him take part in some of the best fights in the sports history. His fights with Dan Henderson and Rogerio Nogueira, in 2014 and 2015 respectively, will go down in history and will be watched and discussed for years to come. It was his most recent bout with Gian Villante last year where we saw the best version of the current Shogun. Knowing that Villante was going to be smashing forward from the get-go, Shogun had a plan to drop back slightly and then throw a tight right hand over the top.

Several times he was able to crack Villante with the punch, until Gian had no more strength in his legs. He swayed and wobbled and backed up to the fence, where Shogun chased him down. In a flurry of well-placed shots, Shogun was able to find the uppercut to finish the fight. Even in the bouts that he has a clear plan though, there still seems to be the undeniable urge to throw leather and hope for the best and that is the game that his opponent would like to draw out of him this weekend. Anthony “Lionheart” Smith is a relatively new face to the light heavyweight division but after his first round stoppage of Rashad Evans six weeks ago, it’s time to give Smith an even tougher test.

With over 40 fights on his professional record, Smith has more overall experience in the MMA world but the standard to which both have been competing is the point of difference. Smith has been in there with many high level fighters, I don’t think he has really seen his potential and now he has stepped up to light heavyweight, it’s likely that we will see him shift through the proverbial gears fairly quickly. The knockout over Rashad Evans would have done wonders for his confidence and self-esteem and to add a name like Mauricio Rua to that list really does put him right up in the mix.

There are many fights where the new breed could overtake the old guard and this certainly feels that way. Shogun is always ready for a scrap but wisdom may be his key here. If he is too willing to brawl, the taller, younger fighter could find Shogun’s well-tested chin. 27 of Smith’s victories are stoppages. 17 knockouts and 10 submissions - and of a wide variety as well. It’s not like he’s clamping onto a guillotine here and there; there are triangles, arm-triangles and armbars mixed in there, showing that he has the skills to finish anywhere in the Octagon.

It’s also worth noting that more than half of his wins are first rounders too. Something worth considering if you are Shogun, who could easily play journeyman in the first round, and just keep himself safe. The later this fight goes the more fatigue comes into play and the more fight IQ comes into the equation. I think Smith will want to leave Hamburg with a dramatic finish on his record and may take a few risks that could allow Shogun to catch him with an overhand and slow him down. He will certainly be a handful for Shogun in the beginning.

Shogun Rua is a veteran of the game (Getty)

As always with a UFC event, the rest of the card is laden with athletes and scrappers, in some very evenly-matched bouts. The heavyweights on the card could well steal the show. Marcin Tybura, currently ranked number nine, needs to get an emphatic win over his opponent, Stefan Struve, who also finds himself backed into a corner. Both athletes are great additions to this division but have experienced how easy it is to keep their head above water amongst the top 15 heavyweights in the world. I feel like frustration and determination on both parts could turn this into a real back-and-forth fight.

The UK contingent is also out in force, with four representatives spread across the card. Davey Grant makes his return after a staph infection kept him out of the Octagon for his last scheduled bout. We also have former Cage Warriors featherweight champion, Nad Narimani, finally making his UFC debut, after some unforeseen circumstances kept him out a few months back. Opening the main card we have Marc Diakiese facing off against Nasrat Haqparast and then Danny Roberts drew a late replacement in David Zawada, right after the opener.

Watch UFC FIGHT NIGHT®: SHOGUN vs. SMITH live on BT Sport 3 from 5pm BST on Sunday, July 22, or catch the Early Prelims exclusively on UFC Fight Pass from 3:30pm BST