UFC 309 prediction: Jon Jones to exploit Stipe Miocic weakness at Madison Square Garden

Check out our free betting tips ahead of this huge UFC card in New York

Jon Jones fights Stipe Miocic on Saturday (Associated Press)

UFC 309 betting tips

• Jon Jones to win in Round 3 via KO, TKO or DQ - 10/1 Bet365
• Michael Chandler to win by finish - 11/4 Betfred

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UFC 309 betting tips preview

So much talk follows a Jon Jones fight that it’s almost possible to forget he will actually step into the Octagon against Stipe Miocic in the early hours of Sunday morning at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden (1am, TNT Sports 1 and Discovery +).

The UFC heavyweight title belt is on the line in a coming together of titans; two men who have legitimate claims when we talk about the greatest fighters of all time.

Jones proclaimed his next opponent the GOAT heavyweight fighter even after he destroyed Ciryl Gane to win the strap last year via a first-round guillotine choke that sent shockwaves through the division.

Jones’ debut at heavyweight after defending the light heavyweight championship 11 times silenced a lot of doubt over whether he could adapt against bigger opponents. Miocic, who hasn’t fought since Francis Ngannou brutally pummelled him to the floor in March 2021, is a major underdog despite being the most dominant heavyweight champion the UFC has ever seen.

One tasty side note: Tom Aspinall waits in the wings if either fighter drops out. Both Jones and Miocic have distanced themselves from a fight with the interim heavyweight champion, who has brutally blitzed his way through the division in recent times.

Neither will want to face him on short notice.

While much of the attention rests on Jones vs Miocic at UFC 309, a cracking rematch between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira will warm the crowd up before the main event.

Both simply have to win if we’re to take their next push for the lightweight belt seriously in what has the potential to be the fight of the night.

UFC 309 betting tips: Jones to exploit Miocic weakness

It’s easy to hate on Jones for his inactivity, but his demolition of Gane is incredibly important to think about when picking a winner for this one.

Gane was supposed to be the frontrunner of the new age; the generation who would replace the veterans still topping the bill. Jones entered on a three-year layoff and choked him out with minimum fuss. To step up and do that on your heavyweight debut suggests we needn’t worry about his year out.

That’s especially true when looking back at Miocic’s recent history. His chances of becoming the first man to legitimately beat Jones, after Matt Hamill was awarded victory in 2009 after Jones was disqualified, feels like it has dissipated across time spent away, especially after how his last fight ended.

It’s been four years since Miocic won his trilogy with Daniel Cormier and three since Ngannou underlined a weakness in his game: he’s become increasingly hittable.

Jones should look to Miocic’s first fight with Cormier as a blueprint on how to put him away. ‘DC’ controlled the clinch and put Miocic on his back with a short punch that he simply didn’t see coming.

Miocic is slow to put his hands up when exiting exchanges and tends to leave his chin exposed when moving forwards. Someone as brutal in the clinch as Jones should have tremendous fun if he continues the trend.

Betting sites heavily favour a Jones win with a best price of 2/11 for the 37-year-old to triumph. We’ll look at other markets for our prediction for this bout.

The early exchanges could be cagey as both men possess one-punch knockout power, but once Jones has found his range and scopes Miocic out he has the craftiness and creativity to end the fight quickly.

UFC 309 prediction 1: Jon Jones to win in Round 3 via KO, TKO or DQ - 10/1 Bet365

UFC 309 betting tips: Chandler tempting after going so close

Michael Chandler waited and waited. That fight with Conor McGregor just would not come, despite the promotion and the hype. He could wait no more and now faces arguably a tougher fight as he steps into the Octagon once more against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira.

This is an extremely important bout in both men’s careers. Chandler has lost three of his last four fights, his only win coming against Tony Ferguson, who somehow keeps booking matches despite being on an eight-fight skid.

The wait for McGregor has also left 38-year-old Chandler battling against time; if the former Bellator loses at MSG, it’s likely game over.

Oliveira is a great example of how quickly things can change. One minute you’re champion and racking up wins against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The next you’ve lost two out of three and are looking up at Islam Makhachev, a champion who seems like he is going to clear the entire division out. Oliveira will fall out of contention with a loss, so he has to be wary.

The longer this fight goes on, the less likely Chandler is to win. Just like in the first bout, his best opportunity is as soon as the opening bell sounds. Oliveira did well to halt the chaos last time but came so close to succumbing to Chandler’s punches after a scrambled exchange on the floor.

Chandler was one good punch away from putting the wilting Oliveira away before the Brazilian’s survival instincts kicked in.

Oliveira saw out the round and then started to methodically work his opponent before beautifully knocking him out in the second round.

It’s now or never for Chandler, a factor that should attract the attention of many punters on UFC betting sites offering appealing odds on an emphatic win for the American.

UFC 309 prediction 2: Michael Chandler to win by finish - 11/4 Betfred

UFC 309 betting offers

New customers can secure free bets and more by signing up for new betting sites and established operators and wagering on UFC 309 and other MMA events.

William Hill are one of the most trusted operators in the industry and are offering £30 in free bets.

All you need to do to claim your bonus is use the William Hill sign up offer and the promo code R30 before registering, depositing £10 and betting £10 on the UFC or any other sport with odds of evens or greater.

Once your qualifying wager has settled, you’ll receive £30 in free bets paid out in three installments of £10 to use on the sportsbook.

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