Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz - UFC 196: Who will win when 'The Notorious' and 'Nate' enter the Octagon?
James Edwards tells us what we can expect from UFC 196's main event
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.In just a matter of hours, Conor McGregor will take on Nate Diaz in a welterweight contest in the main event at UFC 196 and, despite having only 11 days of pre-fight build-up, there has been no lack of trash talk or tension between the Irishman and the American.
The build-up hit boiling point just two days ago at the UFC pre-fight press conference. There was a minor physical altercation when McGregor hit out at Diaz's hand during their staredown.
Thankfully, all passed rather peacefully at the weigh-ins on Friday and the fight was set when both combatants easily made the 170lbs welterweight limit. All the talking and posturing has now done and tonight the two will settle their differences inside the Octagon.
Predicting how a fight will play out is never easy given the number of intangibles in play in any one bout. It has to be said though that this evening - this is McGregor's to lose.
The first big factor could be the stamina of both fighters. Coming in with only eleven days’ notice puts Diaz at a massive disadvantage as he wouldn't have had the opportunity to put himself through a full training camp. This could be a deciding factor later on in the fight.
McGregor will likely look to attack the body and suck the wind out of Diaz's lungs with his devastating body kicks. Doing this should make Diaz drop his hands and open up the opportunity to land to the head which could lead to an opening for either the Irishman’s patented straight left or an uppercut.
In his open workout session, McGregor made a point of demonstrating his uppercut as he worked on the pads with striking coach Owen Roddy. Dan Tom, analyst at MMALatestNews.com, describes why the uppercut is the perfect shot for McGregor:
"Although Diaz keeps an upright head position that can aide over-the-top attacks, his defensive dips and slips could open him up to uppercuts. Whether he is dipping forward off his punches or leaning left in defense, Diaz could inadvertently run into McGregor’s underrated uppercut-hook combinations.
"As we saw in his debut against Marcus Brimage, Conor will dust off these techniques when facing fellow southpaws. With both men lacking orthodox dance partners to dissuade at a distance, McGregor’s ability to be effective at multiple ranges should make the difference standing."
Diaz's route to victory is pretty straight forward. The American is a black belt under the great jiu jitsu legend Cesar Gracie and he has shown on several occasions that he has a submission game that is competitive with anyone.
It's unlikely that Diaz is going to have the power to KO McGregor and, if the fight goes the distance, it's also unlikely that Diaz will win due to the likelihood of him not being able to keep the pace. The American's big hope is to take the fight to the mat and look to catch a submission.
McGregor has lost twice already in his competitive career to submissions so this definitely isn't out the realms of possibility. Tonight could be the night we find out just how good McGregor's jiu jitsu is and whether this really is the big weakness to his game.
Despite the incredible jump up in weight, tonight is McGregor's big opportunity to show the world that anyone can compete at the walk around weight and not have to cut ridiculous amounts before a fight. The official prediction is McGregor late first or early second. The uppercut could well be the shot that does it.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments