Wimbledon 2018: How Novak Djokovic can beat Rafael Nadal and why Serena Williams’ serve can win her the title

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson vs John Isner - follow the men's semi-finals live​

When you can serve like Serena Williams, anything is possible. Holy smoke, what a serving performance she gave against Julia Goerges. Just look at the stats: Serena put 31 first serves in court and won the point on 27 of them.

Man, I felt a bit sorry for Goerges. She didn’t do a lot wrong. She has a serving style that you wouldn’t find in too many coaching manuals, but it clearly works for her. She hits a lot of aces.

She also has an aggressive forehand and is much more consistent than she used to be, but when you’re up against the best serve in the history of women’s tennis it’s tough. You would hardly guess that Serena had been unable to serve for three weeks after suffering a pectoral muscle injury at the French Open last month.

Serena’s service action is a thing of beauty. Just watch her left arm when she tosses the ball. Her arm goes straight up and she puts the ball in almost exactly the same place every time.

It’s also worth studying where she positions herself on the baseline. Serena stands much closer to it than many other players, as does her sister Venus. They owe that to their father, Richard, who always told them to control rallies by playing close to the baseline. It still works for them today. It also helps Serena in that she doesn’t like too much height on the ball.

One little blip in Serena’s game is that she’s not always the best at converting break points, but she took three out of four against Goerges.

You have to see Serena as the clear favourite to win the title, but Angelique Kerber can make her work for it. She was just too good for Jelena Ostapenko, who hit some big winners but made too many unforced errors and is vulnerable on her second serve.

Kerber doesn’t have the biggest of serves, but being a leftie is a big advantage. She makes very good use of her serve out wide to the ad court. She’s aggressive, but she’s also steady and doesn’t make too many mistakes. She handles the pressure well. But can she handle Serena? I doubt it.

Friday’s match of the day

With all due respect to John Isner and Kevin Anderson, the men’s semi-final that will attract most attention will be Rafael Nadal’s meeting with Novak Djokovic. It’s going to be a thrill to see these two great champions facing each other. Can you believe it will be their 52nd meeting?

Rafael Nadal is the favourite ... but only just (Getty Images) (Kyodo News via Getty Images)

I give a marginal edge to Nadal, provided his marathon quarter-final against Jun Martin del Potro didn’t take too much out of him. Given that he’ll have had a day off, I don’t think that will be too much of a problem for him.

Both Nadal and Djokovic prefer to play their points from the baseline. However, I suspect Djokovic will try to come to the net more than he usually does. He also has great drop shots, so watch out for those if Nadal is standing a long way back behind the baseline.

Djokovic’s ground strokes have got better and better as the fortnight has gone on and he’s been looking much more like his old self, but I’ve also been impressed with the way Nadal has adapted his game to grass by flattening out his forehand, which makes it much more damaging.

Novak Djokovic has to keep points as short as possible (Getty)

The longer the rallies go on, the more I favour Nadal. If Djokovic is going to win he’s going to have to keep the points as short as possible.

Isner-Anderson won’t be a match for the faint-hearted. Holy mackerel, Anderson’s forehand is a huge weapon. He also has a great serve, though Isner’s is even better. Big John is also looking good at the net and hitting some great ground strokes. I take him to win a close match which could be decided by just a few points.

What the best players have taught me

Every day I’m recalling some of the things I’ve learned from the great players I’ve worked with over the years at the IMG Academy I founded in Florida.

Boris Becker always kept things simple (Getty)

I always loved working with Boris Becker, who also made a major contribution to Showtime’s recent “Love Means Zero” documentary about me. One of the many lessons Boris taught me was that every single shot in a match can count. His game was based around serve-and-volley and before every serve he would visualise exactly where the ball would go and how he would play the point.

Boris also taught me the importance of keeping your instructions simple. Some coaches can over-complicate things, but Boris showed that just a few simple tips can make all the difference.

And what I can teach you

Here’s a tip for all doubles players when your partner is serving. I know some players find it frustrating when your opponent catches you out with a return down-the-line, but don’t be tempted to stand out wide to combat this. Stay instead around the middle of the service box.

Always play the percentage game (Getty)

Although this might leave you exposed to the occasional down-the-line return, that’s a lower percentage shot. The receiver is much more likely to return cross-court, giving you the chance to intercept.

Think instead that you are playing a singles match and concentrate more on the centre of the court. This will make the returner think more about what you might do. It’s certainly better in doubles to be more aggressive than passive.

Read all about it

I’ve been working on a book which will be my personal account of what I’ve learned in a lifetime of coaching tennis. The Professional Tennis Registry will be publishing it later in the summer. You can find out how to buy the book at www.ptrtennis.org.