Is Federer losing his grip?

Once he seemed invincible, but after a crash in form, Roger Federer finds himself a target in Rome this week. Can he bounce back? Paul Newman looks for insights among the words of those who know him best

(MICHAEL STEELE/GETTY IMAGES)

"If someone calls Roger 'average' they had better be really, really, really good at what they do. People saying that has really been pissing me off all year. I don't know what else the guy needs to do to get the respect that he deserves.... I'll take his 'average year' any time." Andy Roddick

It was at the Tennis Masters Cup that Andy Roddick bridled at a question about Roger Federer's "average year". The American pointed out Federer's Grand Slam record in 2008: he had won the US Open, reached the finals of the French Open and Wimbledon and the semi-finals of the Australian Open, where he had glandular fever.

Federer is only one Grand Slam title short of Pete Sampras's all-time record of 14, has played in 14 of the last 15 finals and made the semi-finals or better of the last 19 events. Nevertheless, there is no escaping the air of vulnerability around Federer, who plays this week in the Rome Masters.

Rafael Nadal clearly has his number, even on Federer's favoured faster courts, while more and more journeymen are claiming his scalp. Who would have thought, at the height of Federer's powers, that he would soon be losing to Filippo Volandri, Mardy Fish or Ivo Karlovic?

The key difference now is in Federer's performances away from the Grand Slam events. In nearly 20 months since the 2007 US Open he has won only five titles: last year's US Open, the 2007 Tennis Masters Cup and minor events at Basle (twice) and Halle.

"I think there's a lot left in Roger, but I think it's got to the stage where it's all about the majors for him. He wants to get back to No 1 and he's looking forward to breaking my record one day. He can win as many Wimbledons as he wants. He has that game. He's also won the US Open five times. He's still one of the best players in the world.....I think he'll still be motivated for the majors, but, just as it happened to me, week in and week out you won't feel you have the drive to go out and win every match." Pete Sampras

Like Federer, Pete Sampras swept nearly all before him at his peak, winning 40 titles between 1994 and 1999. Yet from the spring of 2000 until his final match two summers later the American won only two: Wimbledon in 2000 and the US Open in 2002. He lost his world No 1 status for the last time at 29 in November 2000.

Federer's trophy-winning rampage between 2003 and 2007 was even more intense, with 49 titles won. When his record-breaking run at the top of the rankings ended last summer he was 27. Nevertheless, he remains No 2 and feels he benefits from having fewer titles to defend.

"It takes the pressure off a little bit and actually increases the pressure on the other guys," Federer said at the start of the year in Doha. "You can actually concentrate more on playing than having to defend points."

Sampras, who believes Federer will break his record, thinks the Swiss can enjoy a longer career than Nadal. "One thing Roger has over him is that I think it takes him a lot less energy to stay on top than it does Rafa," Sampras said. "It's physically and mentally demanding for Rafa because he seems to be strung so tight."

He added: "When you're the best player in the world people are gunning for you year after year and that will take its toll..... It takes a lot of work for Rafa to win these matches. As strong as he is, I think the body will take its toll. There's a certain grind that he goes through, unlike Roger, who's a lot more fluid. His matches are a lot easier. It seems like there are no easy matches for Rafa. He works for every point."

"Two years ago he was winning everything. Now, since the beginning of the year, he has been beaten by Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. I think mentally it is not easy to handle." Fernando Verdasco, world No 8

Nadal, the world No 1, has beaten Federer five times in succession since last April. Andy Murray, the No 4, has won their last four matches. Novak Djokovic, the No 3, won their most recent meeting last month.

It could be argued that Federer is unfortunate to be playing when three such outstanding younger rivals have emerged, with Nadal in particular seeming to have established a mental hold over him. Mats Wilander said after this year's Australian Open final: "The ramifications for Federer are huge. Is he ever going to beat Rafael Nadal again in a big match?"

Federer's frustrations were evident in the floods of tears in Melbourne and last month in Miami, where he smashed a racket after a bad forehand error against Djokovic. "I found it strange he broke his racket in Miami, he who always keeps calm, but these things happen when you are frustrated on the court," Djokovic said.

Peter Fleming, John McEnroe's former doubles partner, said: "Temporarily he seems to have lost his [nerve] against the top players. It's starting to look like he needs another voice that can tell him what's missing."

"He needs a coach. He's never had to adjust to something because he's been so talented that he could go out there and figure it out." Patrick McEnroe, US Davis Cup captain

Most leading players have a full-time coach, but Federer has not worked with one since parting with Peter Lundgren six years ago. He employed Tony Roche part-time until 2007 and Jose Higueras during last year's clay-court season, but now works only with Pierre Paganini, his fitness coach, and Severin Luthi, Switzerland's Davis Cup captain.

"I'm very happy with Severin," Federer said. "We have been working the last one-and-a-half years together, so nothing really changes. I just continue with the great team that I have."

Federer used a sports psychologist as a teenager but does not see the need for similar help now. "Then it was more about anger management, but I pretty quickly realised it was basically up to me and not someone else to tell me how to behave," he said. "Other than that, I've never really considered one. To be honest, I don't know if many have used them and whether they've been beneficial."

His forehand has long been the game's greatest shot, but it has misfired recently. However, he does not talk like a man who thinks he needs coaching advice. "It's normal for me to miss forehands," he said after his most recent defeat, to Stanislas Wawrinka. "I don't just push them in. I usually try to go for it and be aggressive on it."

Nevertheless, after losing in Melbourne Federer asked Darren Cahill, who used to coach Andre Agassi and Lleyton Hewitt, to come to Dubai for a trial, only for the Australian to decide afterwards that he did not want to tour. When asked at the start of the clay-court season about his coaching situation Federer replied: "I'm not planning to speak to anyone really. It's just me and the clay."

"He's not going to beat Nadal from the back of the court. Hardly anybody does. To beat him I think he needs to reshape his game a little bit." Stefan Edberg

The power of modern rackets, the slowing down of grass courts and players' improved fitness have combined to reduce the impact of different surfaces and to make the game more one-dimensional. Nearly all the top players now stay at the back of the court, knowing they are likely to be beaten by passing shots if they approach the net.

Federer, who has an excellent serve and fine volleys, now limits his own forward forays. However, some diehards think he should come to the net more.

"In order to develop and become an even better player his strategy should be to play more serve-and-volley," Stefan Edberg said. "I think that would benefit him and it would make it easier to beat Nadal, though that's never easy of course.

"It takes time. It's not as though you can switch on and change your style suddenly. You have to do it over six months or a year, playing a lot of serve-and-volley to get your momentum and so that at the back of your mind you know what you're doing."

"I'm sure [having a child] is going to be a shock for him. There's no question about that. It's just that your life changes completely. Priorities are different. You're not the one in the family who's the most important. You kind of lose your wife for a while." Ivan Ljubicic, father and former world No 3

While it is unlikely that marriage will have a major impact on Federer's tennis – he has been with Mirka Vavrinec, whom he married earlier this month, for the last nine years – it remains to be seen what effect fatherhood will have. Mirka is expecting their first child this summer.

Fathers have won only 10 of the last 115 Grand Slam titles. Boris Becker, who lifted the 1996 Australian Open after the birth of his first son, warns that Federer's life could change dramatically. "It would be more difficult to focus on one thing alone because your main focus is for your child and your wife and tennis becomes secondary," he said.

Federer, however, insists being a father will give him greater inspiration: "I always had the dream that once I became No 1 in the world that if I have a child I hope I have it early enough so he can see me playing."

Net loss: Fall of Federer

*Federer's highest point was arguably in February 2007, when he won the Dubai title for the fourth time to remain unbeaten in 41 matches dating back to August 2006.

Here is how Federer then compares with Federer now:

*Titles held in February 2007 12;

Titles held today 3

*Defeats in previous 12 months in February 2007 4; Defeats in last 12 months 15

*Wins in previous 12 months in February 2007 88; Wins in last 12 months 64

*Winning run in February 2007 41 matches; Current winning run: 0 matches

*Prize money won in previous 12 months in February 2007: $7,251,635 [£4,959,943]; Prize money won in last 12 months: $4,647,150