Stuart Hogg: Scotland can cause a stir in wide open Rugby World Cup

In his first column of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, writing exclusively for The Independent Premium, the Scotland and Lions legend Stuart Hogg tips his nation to pull off some upsets in a tough pool... and reveals the defensive secrets behind their revival

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend is quietly confident ahead of the tournament (PA)

I’m massively excited for the World Cup. After announcing my retirement, this is the first opportunity I’ve ever had to be a genuine fan of rugby and see everything the tournament has to offer. A World Cup only comes around every four years. Everyone has been going hammer and tongs, knocking lumps out of each other to get to where they want to be.

There’s going to be an incredible amount of excitement and support across France. It’s a chance for rugby to really grow and show what a great sport it is. Admittedly, it has been struggling slightly – look at the Gallagher Premiership with three teams going bust. Rugby isn’t in a fantastic place by any stretch of the imagination, but this is a brilliant opportunity to put it back on the biggest stage and show what it is really about.

I’ve had so many different conversations about who is going to qualify from the groups and who is going to win, and every time I do, I change my mind – on everything. Ireland are in with a good chance. I think New Zealand will win the opening game this weekend but that will then galvanise the French to be bigger and better as the tournament goes on.

The game is ever-changing and this is a chance for teams to get an opportunity on the world stage. Tonga, who are in Scotland’s pool, have got some exceptional players who have come back under the new eligibility rules where players can now more easily switch nations, and they are going to play an exciting brand of rugby, potentially causing an upset or two.

The way that the pools are set up has the top five teams in the world in one half of the draw: Pool A with France and New Zealand in it, Pool B with Scotland, South Africa and Ireland. One of those teams is not going to qualify out of Pool B – it’s a strange setup but at the same time it does make it all the more exciting for the fans.

You can’t just kick cheaply to a side like South Africa because they will punish you

For Scotland to go into this World Cup ranked fifth in the world but the third highest in the pool is really frustrating. I don’t believe that some of the best sides are going to qualify from the pool stages and that’s really quite disappointing. But I fully understand the process behind it all in terms of when the draw was done. When it was made, Scotland were coming off of the last World Cup, when we didn’t qualify from the pool stages. If you look at it from that point of view, back then, that’s probably what we deserved.

After the last World Cup, there were a lot of changes within the Scotland camp and slowly but surely since then, they have been building something special. The side that we have got at the moment is the most stable we’ve had for a long time. There has been a lot of consistency in selection and combinations. The mindset has completely changed. It’s not just about backing up big wins but bettering them.

For the first five or six years of my career, we were very focused on the opposition and what they were going to bring. In the last handful of years, we very much concentrated on ourselves. It is no coincidence that we are now in a position to win big test matches.

Duhan van der Merwe will provide attacking impetus for Scotland (Getty)

Steve Tandy came into the Scotland setup after the last World Cup and I think he is the best defensive coach in rugby. He changed our whole mindset about defending. We didn’t really believe in ourselves defensively until he arrived. And then you’ve got Gregor Townsend’s knowledge – he’s totally fastidious and never leaves a stone unturned in his preparation. There’s a genuine excitement about Scottish rugby.

South Africa are the reigning champions and are likely to be there or thereabouts this time round too. Scotland are going to go out there against them in their first match and try to move them around. South Africa fully understand what they are about. They have that DNA of physicality, a very good kicking game and they try to squeeze the life out of you. You’ve got to try and keep their big pack on the move. You can’t just kick cheaply to a side like South Africa because they will punish you.

Scotland need to start well. That’s something we’ve never been renowned for doing, but you can’t give South Africa a head start like New Zealand did the other week. We can’t wait until the second half to start playing. The longer we stay engaged in the game, the better. That is when we are at our best. With a guy like Finn Russell at 10, he is going to put the boys in the right areas.

We are very fortunate at the minute that we have got some quality players and all I ask is that they go out there and give a true reflection of themselves. If they do that, they’ll be in with a very good shout of qualifying.