Six Nations ‘Super Saturday’ harks back to frantic final day of unpredictable 2015 Championship

Three teams go into the fifth round of the delayed 2020 Championship with realistic hopes of taking the title, echoing the scenario that produced the greatest final day in the history of the Six Nations

They don’t come much more entertaining than the final day of the 2015 Six Nations Championship. Three teams, three games and one trophy on the line produced six hours of gripping, logic-defying rugby that ended on an historic day with Ireland claiming the spoils.

The plot this Saturday sounds remarkably similar, doesn’t it?

Ireland, England and France go into the final day of the delayed 2020 Six Nations Championship with points the order of the day - points make prizes after all. Five years ago, a record-breaking final day saw 221 points scored via 27 tries, 22 conversions and 13 penalty goals. There has never been more points registered in a single round of the Five or Six Nations, let alone on the same day.

Wales set the bar with a 61-20 victory over Italy, with mammoth 47-point haul in the second half putting themselves in pole position for the title. In an age before bonus points, Ireland knew they needed a 21-point winning margin over Scotland to pass the Welsh. They clocked up 30 thanks to a 40-10 victory at Murrayfield, their biggest away win in the Championship at the time.

England knew what they needed to do: beat France by a hefty 26 points to take the title. The problem was they had not achieved that in the Six Nations since 2001, and there were few who truly believed they would do so that evening. They never did in the end, with France repeatedly pegging them back just as Stuart Lancaster’s side could start to think about doing the impossible, but the journey towards eventual disappointment was a rollercoaster of emotions. Twelve tries were scored in the one match alone as England recorded their highest score over France and Les Bleus returned fire with their biggest score at Twickenham in a 55-35 thriller.

A lot is expected of this Saturday’s finale, but surely the action can’t live up to 2015. Against the backdrop of a World Cup year, there was much more riding on the Six Nations that year than there is in this post-World Cup edition, where coronavirus has all-but-eradicated the first four rounds from our memory.

Or can it?

The one reason why it might just do so is because of the exact same factor that was in play five years ago: points difference.

If Ireland can go to France and record a bonus-point victory, it becomes a very simple equation as they will reclaim the Six Nations crown that they relinquished last year. However, they have only scored four tries in Paris just once since the turn of the century, and the chances of doing so against a French side that turned over Wales last weekend and beat England so convincingly at the start of the Championship looks unlikely.

But if they can squeeze a victory, the calculators come out. Last week’s 50-17 victory over Italy has given Ireland a 23-point advantage over England in terms of points difference, meaning England will have to register a bonus-point win over the basement side and ensure their winning margin is emphatic.

Scoring four tries over Italy should not be the hardest task, given Italy are conceding an average of five tries a match this year, and with a run of 26 consecutive Six Nations games without a victory, the chances of an upset victory on Saturday are slim.

England’s best hope lies on a French victory, given they are two points to the good over Fabien Galthie’s side going into the final round. It seems unthinkable that England will record a slimmer margin than what France can achieve against Ireland, which would see Jones claim his third Six Nations crown in five attempts - the best return of any permanent England coach.

But the simple fact is that whoever is going to take the title will have to score plenty of points this weekend. Six Nations organisers have made the decision to take the trophy to Paris with Ireland in the box seat, but the bookmakers have installed England as 1/3 favourites over the Irish at 3/1, with France outsiders at 12/1. Will it be a mistake? Only the points will decide this weekend.