Scotland lay trap with tactical kicking and sound defending

If Eddie Jones is a man under pressure - and in some corners of the Wallaby rugby community, he is about as popular as the dodgy Moreton Bay Bug - he does one hell of a job concealing it. Lambasted from pillar to post following the reigning champions' misfire against Ireland last weekend and forced into performing major surgery on a back division struggling to locate the opposition goal-line, the coach charged with defending the World Cup legacies of Bob Dwyer and Rod Macqueen seemed more relaxed than ever as he contemplated today's quarter-final tie with Scotland.

"I definitely think we can win this tournament," he replied when asked for his assessment of Wallaby prospects at the business end of the competition. "What do I base that on? I base it on my feeling that when the big minutes kick in, we'll play the best rugby. We've been through the sparring stage; now, we're down from 20 teams to eight and into the good stuff. This is the time to get stuck in, to do whatever it takes to win. I'm confident we can play the right rugby when it needs to be played."

Jones would not even accept that his decision to drop two outstanding World Cup-winning Wallabies, Joe Roff and Matthew Burke, suggested a degree of discomfort on the selectorial front. "Quite the opposite," he insisted. "Bringing in a fit, firing Stirling Mortlock at this point in the proceedings is a very positive step for us; the same goes for Lote Tuqiri. When you get to the stage where your side is set and you cannot think of a way of improving it, you're in decline."

There has been more than a hint of Wallaby decline all year, and it will be intriguing to see if a back-three unit of cross-code converts - Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor and Mat Rogers - can reverse the gradual descent before it develops into something resembling free-fall. Nobody doubts the threat these rugby leaguers pose with ball in hand; even Sailor, a great lummox of a wing who would have made Jonah Lomu look subtle and sophisticated, can hurt opponents in heavy traffic, as the Argentinians discovered to their cost in the opening game of the competition. But when it comes to the more union-specific task of defensive discipline in the face of a precise kicking game, they have yet to establish a convincing case for themselves.

This has not escaped the notice of Ian McGeechan, the Scotland coach, who misses very little when the chips are down. "When you look at contests between the top few sides, the kicking game tends to determine how the matches are shaped," he said. "By running Chris Paterson at outside-half and Gregor Townsend at outside centre, we've given ourselves options in that direction. I'd have to agree that the rugby league people give the Wallabies some attacking potential, but we'll try to expose whatever weaknesses they have as best we can."

Before they can even begin to think about putting the ball behind Sailor, in particular, and closing him down behind the advantage line, the Scots will need some grade-A possession. They will not be frightened of the Wallaby scrummage, and the athleticism of Nathan Hines and Simon Taylor should guarantee a decent return from the line-out. The loose phase, once such a strength of the Scottish game, will be a problem, however. Deprived of specialist open-side flankers through premature retirement (Budge Pountney) and injury (Andrew Mower), there is no obvious prospect of the outsiders challenging the likes of Phil Waugh and George Smith at the breakdown.

"I would give credit to Cameron Mather for doing a tremendous job since joining us following Mower's injury, which was hardly something we'd anticipated," McGeechan said. "But yes, we've had to adapt Cameron's game and ours to the demands of a situation that is far from ideal. The back-row area is a key part of any rugby game, and it's something we've had to think through."

Australia will expect to win this tie with something to spare, but the Scots could still be in there scrapping after an hour if the gifted Paterson makes another strong showing in the stand-off position and his centres stack up in defence. Should the Wallabies stumble through with anything less than a 12-point advantage, their prospects of retaining the trophy will be slim indeed.