No way to say hello to Italians

This could be the most open Nations' Championship for years. Every country is capable of beating the others with the exception of Italy, who can look forward to a warm welcome and, if they are not careful, a series of good hidings.

This could be the most open Nations' Championship for years. Every country is capable of beating the others with the exception of Italy, who can look forward to a warm welcome and, if they are not careful, a series of good hidings.

I think the organisers missed a chance to give the newcomers a less arduous introduction by allowing them to play all their matches at home. This would have been a generous gesture, both financially and from a development point of view, and would have helped the Italians to create a spectator base and give their team as much advantage as possible in what is bound to be a difficult experience.

This suggestion is not meant as a slight on Italy. Their progress in recent years has been good for the game and they deserved to be added to the Five Nations. But form displayed in one-off games is not a reliable guide to how a team would do in the Nations' Championship, which is a sustained and demanding challenge over eight weeks and which applies enormous pressure on the physical and mental resilience of your squad.

Predicting who will top the table is far more difficult. Scotland, the reigning champions, will again be one to watch. They seem to raise their game for the Nations matches and although their club sides have done nothing to boost Scotland's confidence, their opponents will know that they will once more produce a style of rugby that is exceptionally hard to play against.

They have the benefit of playing in Italy in the opening game on Saturday, which will be a gentle introduction compared to the other four. The most intriguing first match is that between Wales and France. Which French team are we going to see: the one that flopped in last year's Five Nations or the one that played brilliantly to beat New Zealand in the World Cup semi-final? The signs are good for them. Emile Ntamack is back as a force and under their new manager, Bernard Laporte, they'll be freshened up. Their top sides have been going well in Europe and they will be comforted by the knowledge that they can't play as badly again as they did in the first half of last year.

If they can start with a big away win then they will be immediately installed as favourites. But let's not forget that Wales beat them twice last year. Wales will start with as many question marks over them as the French. In 1999, they had a great middle of the year before failing to carrythe promise into the WorldCup. By then, the element of surprise had gone and the opposition were ready.

Graham Henry will have spent the last couple of months getting his team back to basics and this time he'll be ready. After losing the two opening games last year, Henry admitted he had not expected the furious intensity of the competition. He won't make the same mistake again and I believe he has the players to create another good run.

Certainly, there'll be nobody in the Welsh squad suffering from complacency. He has proved that nobody can consider himself an automatic choice and his shock switching of the captaincy from Robert Howley to David Young has got everyone on their toes.

England could struggle this season. Massive gaps have opened up in their back division with the retirement of Jeremy Guscott, Will Greenwood's loss of form and the injury to their best winger, Dan Luger. What with Martin Johnson and Danny Grewcock also injured, Clive Woodward has more than a few problems.

Ireland had the most disappointing World Cup of all, but Munster's great showing in Europe could give them a platform. They have some good youngsters and I wouldn't bet against an Irish surge. In fact, I wouldn't bet on or against anyone until Saturday is over.