Stuart Hogg: Here’s how Scotland can shock Ireland and escape group of death

It’s a Herculean challenge: Scotland must defeat the world No 1 side in Paris to avoid a World Cup exit, writes Stuart Hogg. But our columnist says if captain Jamie Ritchie can outmuscle Peter O’Mahony early on and the defence can find a way to stop the genius of Johnny Sexton, they might just stand a chance

Jamie Ritchie, of Scotland, will have a key role up against Ireland’s Peter O’Mahony (Getty)

This match against Ireland is the biggest game in a long, long time for Scotland. Pool B was talked about as the pool of death and one of either Ireland, Scotland and South Africa could potentially go home. This is what you want – the drama on the last weekend of the pool stages.

This Scotland side doesn’t deserve to be heading home at this stage. This side that has been building for the last four years doesn’t deserve to not be playing knockout rugby at the World Cup. It is just so unfortunate with the way the draw lies and the pool stages have played out that one of the top five teams in the current rankings isn’t going to be involved in the next stage.

As a player, you have to approach this game with the exact same mentality as any other. There will obviously be a little more tension due to what is on the line but you can’t concentrate on that. Everybody will be aware of the ramifications after 80 minutes, but I know that Scotland will only be focused on the start of the game and making sure that they get that area of it right. Ireland are notorious fast starters; those first 20 minutes could be the best rugby we’ve seen so far at this World Cup.

I think this game will be won by the middle five, as we like to call it: the back row and the half backs. The battle of the breakdown between the back rows will be key for tempo and winning penalties, but it is on the half backs to make sure both teams are playing in the right areas.

Never in my time of playing rugby did I think forward match-ups were interesting. But now I’ve taken a step back, that’s changed. When you look at the number six jersey, it’s Peter O’Mahony, who wins his 100th cap, against Jamie Ritchie. O’Mahony will be going for the Scotland captain and trying to put him off his game to show his dominance, but Jamie will be saying “f*** that”, and going after O’Mahony. I know how competitive Jamie Ritchie is. He’s the most competitive guy you will ever come across. They are two very similar players in terms of characteristics. That could be spicy.

Everyone goes on about Ireland not getting to the semi-finals before, but that is all in the past. They are going into this World Cup as the best side in the world, and they are there for a reason. They’ve played their full-strength squad in every game because of the way the fixtures were, and they have built that familiarity again. They played South Africa and fronted up physically, both in attack and defence.

When we played Ireland in the Six Nations earlier this year, we couldn’t put our best game on the field. Every game, you go in with an expectation you are going to win having previewed the opposition for an entire week. Unfortunately, that day we didn’t play our best rugby.

At half time, they went in with their backs against the wall, with a few injuries and positional changes, the scoreline being close away from home. That’s when you show how tough you are. That’s when you have to front up and that’s exactly what they did. That game is the definition of why they are the number one side in world rugby.

In the first 20 minutes of the second half, we were chasing shadows. Ireland went up a notch with their intensity, their physicality and their ruthlessness. They’ve got rugby genius in the form of Johnny Sexton and the two scrum halves that really changed the game that day. They came out after half time and were a completely different side. When they get on the front foot, they are very difficult to try and stop.

Stuart Hogg was part of the Scotland side beaten 22-7 by Ireland during the Six Nations (Getty)

Ireland ended up with Josh van der Flier, a flanker, throwing in at the lineout. We thought we could challenge their lineout with a back rower throwing in – I don’t think he missed a lineout. No matter what we chucked at them that day, they just seemed to come up with the answers.

When you look at our stats of how Scotland were playing, we want high ball in play. When you look at the timelines of when we used to score tries, it is when we got into multiphase. The longer the phase count goes on, Scotland get better. Unfortunately that day, and in the South Africa game as well, we weren’t allowed to get multiphase.

The best thing for Scotland over the last couple of years is that the gameplan is very much down to the players as well as the coaches. There will have been a good balance this week – on Monday and Tuesday, a lot of the detail will have come from the coaches, and then as the week goes on it is more and more player-led.

On the install day, they would have gone through the set piece plays and the opportunities that Gregor has seen. He leads on that with help from the half-backs – Finn Russell will have been at the forefront. The next day is a massive defensive day, so it’s a lot more from defence coach Steve Tandy and the defensive leaders: Jamie Ritchie, Rory Darge, Hamish Watson, Sione Tuipulotu and Chris Harris. They’ll take charge.

Scotland’s wing Kyle Steyn and lock Sam Skinner celebrate beating Tonga (AFP via Getty)

As the week goes on, it will have been narrowed down to a couple of voices, maybe big Grant Gilchrist upfront about the scrum and lineout; Jamie about defence; Finn running the attack. Now it is just a case of going out there and showing what the boys have got to offer. This is the time where you start to almost get itchy feet. You have finished your training week and you are ready to play.

But these are the games that you miss playing in. From here on in, it’s knockout rugby, and the atmosphere and intensity of rugby is only going to kick on. There will be an edge to every game which is hugely exciting. It’s tough because I’ve got so much love and respect for the Scotland boys, but Ireland deserves to progress, too. Unfortunately, this really is the pool of death and someone is going to miss out – I’m praying that it isn’t Scotland.

Scotland vs Ireland kicks off 7 October, at 8pm on ITV