Six Nations predictions: Wales and Scotland meet expectations but England provide a big upset in Dublin
The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to predict each weekend of the Six Nations
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Your support makes all the difference.One of the most entertaining opening weekend’s in the history of the Six Nations saw Scotland and England emerge at the top of the table in very different circumstances, while Wales snatched victory from the jaws of defeat to give themselves a massive boost of winning the championship for the first time in six years.
The Independent has teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide predictions for each round of matches every Friday during the Six Nations, as well as post-weekend analysis each Monday.
QBE Business Insurance has based its predictions on a complex mathematical formula created by a team of experts whose day job is to help businesses anticipate the likelihood and impact of risks so that they can prepare for and manage them properly.
The computer model has simulated each game 10,000 times with an average score taken to find the final result. Actuaries inputted a wide range of rugby variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams involved, as well as the experience of each team's captain and who has the benefit of home territory.
On Friday night it was France who had that home advantage and they looked to be making the most of it in treacherous conditions, surging out to a 16-0 half-time lead. But two high-profile mistakes allowed George North to capitalise on both, and combined with Tomos Williams’ try early in the second half, Wales were able to sneak a 24-19 victory on the road.
Using our predictor, we put Wales as eight-point favourites in Paris, which proved the right match result and just a penalty away from nailing the correct score – if only Gareth Anscombe’s 14th-minute penalty had made its way over!
Heading into Saturday one from one, Scotland met expectations with a dominant 33-20 victory over Italy as Blair Kinghorn scored an impressive hat-trick for the Dark Blues. However, we saw it coming as we not only backed the Scotland victory, but went for a 32-18 prediction that was just three points off the mark!
Two from two, the QBE predictor had made a flying start to the Six Nations, but who could have seen the incredible performance that England produced to beat Ireland? The Red Rose triumphed over the Shamrock on Saturday evening as England ran in four tries to secure a 32-20 victory, robbing us of a clean sweep after a 20-17 prediction in Ireland’s favour.
But a two from three start to the championship is nothing to be knocked, and you can read our week two predictions this Friday as Scotland host Ireland, Italy entertain Wales and England welcome France to Twickenham.
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