Six Nations 2018 predictions: An England or Ireland Grand Slam, despair for Italy and our players to look out for
The Independent writers pick their winners, losers, best moments and players to watch ahead of this year's Six Nations tournament
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Your support makes all the difference.Who will win?
Jack de Menezes (Deputy Sports Editor and Rugby Writer)
Last week I stuck my neck on the line and picked Ireland, but that was when England had ‘18 players’ missing through injury and suspension. A series of “miracle” recoveries later, you can only say that Billy Vunipola and Elliot Daly are missing from England’s first XV. That said, I’m going to stick to my guns and go with the Irish, and if they do it they’ll do it the hard way by beating the reigning champions on their own turf at Twickenham.
Ed Malyon (Sports Editor)
I'd like to pick an upset but England are the best team going into this and it is impossible to look beyond their depth. Is it too much to say that the Six Nations is simply a warm-up for the big game with the All Blacks in the autumn?
Jack Austin (Sports Reporter)
Scotland. Why not? They play the most exciting rugby and can get off to a great start against an injury-ravaged Wales (more on that later) this weekend. Stuart Hogg will be back to his brilliant best after missing the Lions while Huw Jones and Finn Russell of the Geography Six (to give him his full name) will be pulling the strings in the midfield. This is the year where Scotland is no longer the answer to ‘Who are your dark horses this year?’
Samuel Lovett (Sports Reporter)
England have been far from their best over the last 12 months but, with a place in the history books up for grabs, I expect Eddie Jones’ men to step up to the plate. As with last year, the showdown between England and Ireland on the final Sunday will settle matters but, as opposed to a Grand Slam, the Championship itself will be on the line this time. With the home advantage on their side, it’ll be England who edge out victory.
Luke Brown (Sports Reporter)
Two statistics. In the Championship’s storied 135 year history, no nation has ever celebrated three successive outright titles. And in every post-Lions season since 1980, England have fallen short. And so Eddie Jones’ team are not only battling five rivals desperate to end their hegemony, but the heavy weight of history, too. Ireland will prove too strong. The most complete team in the competition, their leading lights – unlike England’s – head into the tournament rested and refreshed. Add in a generous sprinkling of talented youngsters ready to take the next step up, and it will be little surprise to see Ireland go one better than they managed last year.
Who will end up with the Wooden Spoon?
JDM: Conor O’Shea says Italy are a better side now than 12 months ago and he’s probably right, but the rest of the competition has improved considerably and that gulf between them may have widened beyond the size that it needs to be for them to sneak a win here or there. That said, if they turn to Brendan Venter’s box of magic tricks against France or Wales, you just never know.
EM: You spend years trying to avoid picking Italy because it's too obvious, so you have a sideways glance at Scotland and wonder if you can toss them in instead, but the fact is that the Scots are probably the most improved of these six over the past 12-18 months. Wales' glut of injuries means they may disappoint some people but, if we are honest, you always knew it was going to be Italy.
JA: Italy. Or Wales. But probably Italy. England, Ireland and Scotland all look strong, France are France so anywhere is a possibility but Wales are being made to blood the next generation (and the generation after that) early. It could work though, and they Wales could pick up a few wins, so I’m going to go with Italy.
SL: Conor O’Shea has been making all the right noises as he attempts to transform Italian rugby but it’s a case of too much too soon for the Azzurri. The side remains a work in progress while Scotland, their usual opposition for the Wooden Spoon, have come on leaps and bounds across the past year. Sadly, it looks to be another year of disappointment for Italy.
LB: Italy. No consistency. No squad depth. No track record. No wins last year. No hope? Scotland have pulled away and France will prove too strong on a boisterous Friday night in Marseille.
Player to watch?
JDM: There’s a big part of me that’s excited to see Huw Jones at full flight again after he missed the Lions tour, while Sam Simmonds has a brilliant opportunity to prove he can cut it as an international No 8 having lit up the Premiership. But in Gareth Davies, Wales have a scrum-half that is faster than Rhys Webb, will produce a telepathic understanding with Rhys Patchell and has very good memories of destroying England’s dreams at Twickenham. He could well end up the player of the tournament, but it’s just a shame how Webb’s international career has slammed to a halt.
EM: Chris Harris of Scotland is someone that will be important if they are to confirm themselves as the ascendant team we think they might be. With ball in hand the Newcastle centre is everything you'd hope for - sharp in the offload, a creator as well as someone who will get their hands dirty - but more key to Scotland's ambitions might be his defensive prowess. Tough in the tackle and a keen organiser, he'll need to strike up an immediate bond with Huw Jones, who moves to inside centre.
JA: There are a lot of youngsters making their Six Nations debuts this weekend and who are expected to make a large impression on the tournament. Among those are the plethora of Welsh starlets who propelled Scarlets to a surprise Pro12 (now Pro14) victory last season. Warren Gatland practically picked all of them to face Scotland in what will be a very attacking mentality. The man who will be charged with conducting all those attacks? Rhys Patchell, and the way he does it, with only five caps to his name so far, will be as intriguing a watch as any of the other breakthrough players this year. Can he cope with the pressure being the Welsh No 10 carries?
SL: Not since Brian O’Driscoll’s hat-trick at the Stade de France 18 years ago has an Irishman announced his arrival onto the main stage in such style. But for Jordan Larmour, 20, the Championship is set for the Leinster full-back to do just that and confirm his status as one of European rugby’s most exciting prospects. His world-class try against Munster showed what he’s capable of, combining dizzying pace, technical brilliance and audacity. Just what the Irish need to take their game to the next level.
LB: Does Josh Navidi count? The Cardiff Blues flanker was selected in the 35-man Wales squad for the 2013 Championship, and was superb for Wales during last year’s autumn internationals, but now has a chance to truly nail down his place in Warren Gatland’s starting XV. Navidi, an outstanding physical specimen and expert ball pilferer, was only handed his chance last year because of the dearth of openside flankers available to Gatland, but he has been in fine form and is now ahead of the likes of Ellis Jenkins, James Davies and Justin Tipuric in the pecking order. Navidi has worked hard for this opportunity. Don’t be surprised if he seizes it with both hands.
What are you most excited for?
JDM: If England aren’t at their very best, Twickenham will bleed green on St Patrick’s Day. The championship is really set-up to produce a decider on the final weekend – much more so than last season’s schedule – and after last year’s anti-climax we deserve a winner-takes-all shootout for – dare I say it – the Grand Slam.
EM: Marseille's opportunity to bring rugby to the Cote d'Azur. The magnificent Stade Velodrome will host France's game with Italy, a likely romp of a match that will glitter under the bright Friday night lights. Should this be a success, you wonder whether any other teams might be willing to take a game on the road.
JA: Gavin Henson making his long-awaited international return for Wales in round four when the injury crisis for Warren Gatland’s side has become so bad that the WRU are considering running open trials for anyone who has ever played, or had any interest in playing, rugby. With Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies, Rhys Webb, Dan Biggar, George North, Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric, Scott Baldwin, Taulupe Faletau and Liam Williams (to name but a few) already on the casualty list, desperate times call for desperate measures, so let’s not rule it out.
SL: Watching the French either, a) implode spectacularly throughout the entirety of the Championship, or b) prove the critics wrong with some backs-against-the-wall rugby. Les Bleus have faced their fair share of setbacks in recent weeks – the sacking of Guy Noves and Mathieu Bastareaud’s suspension spring to mind – but as Eddie Jones warned recently, it’s never wise to write the French off. Their unpredictability will surely make for quite the spectacle.
LB: Twickenham at 2.45pm on Saturday 17 March. England vs Ireland. It’s when the Championship will be decided.
Will there be a Grand Slam?
JDM: Yes. Ireland seem to know how to put England off their game, and as long as they negotiate tomorrow’s tricky opener in Paris, three home wins should follow. That brings it all down to the St Paddy’s Day shootout as I strongly expect England to go unbeaten too and produce a Grand Slam Saturday, with Ireland just sneaking it.
EM: Yes. I'm going for an England Grand Slam that might not be the prettiest, but will see them kick on in their preparations for the 2019 World Cup.
JA: The only team I can see that is capable of winning a Grand Slam would be England, I can see every other team losing. But, with a tartan thinking cap on I’ve picked Scotland for their first championship since 1999 and therefore am saying no to the Grand Slam. On paper and current form, there isn’t one side who stands out head-and-shoulders above the rest.
SL: No. I can see this being one of the closest Championships in recent years but can’t see the likes of England or Ireland – the favourites, once again – keeping a 100 per cent record throughout the campaign. I’m expecting a Scottish victory at Murrayfield and an Irish defeat at Twickenham. That means it’s going to be all about those bonus points...
LB: Yes. Come the end of the Championship Irish eyes will be smiling. England will fall one match short of making history.
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