Italy vs Wales, Six Nations 2019: Home side harbour hopes of shock victory over an old foe
For all the welcome and positive talk of development lower down the Italian system, Conor O’Shea and his players desperately crave an increasingly rare Test-match victory
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Your support makes all the difference.It is just under a year since former Italy scrum half Paul Griffen accused Warren Gatland of being “disrespectful” for picking a second-string team to face the Azzurri in Italy.
It would be a brave man who made a similar accusation this time around.
Wales, who ran in five tries in beating Italy 38-14 last year, have not lost since, chalking 10 wins in succession to vindicate Gatland’s decision to mix and match his squad with the World Cup in mind.
Such is the confidence running through the veins of the Welsh camp their head coach proudly proclaimed his players had “forgotten how to lose” after their dramatic second-half revival against France last Friday somehow saw them continue their impressive winning run.
Saturday in Rome will be an altogether different test as a side showing 10 changes to the one which beat France in Paris looks to overhaul an Italian outfit which, by contrast, seems to have forgotten how to win.
Their late comeback against Scotland at Murrayfield last Saturday could not mask another below-par Six Nations display under Connor O’Shea, who has yet to register a win in the tournament since taking over in 2016.
For all the welcome and positive talk of development lower down the Italian system, O’Shea and his players desperately crave an increasingly rare Test-match victory.
In theory, a home clash against a Welsh second string should provide the best opportunity Italy will have all tournament.
Of the two wins Italy have ever recorded over Wales, both have come in Rome back in 2003 and 2007 respectively.
The problem for them is that the Wales team they will face on Saturday is brim full of quality and confidence and will still boast world-class performers in the shape of captain Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams while fly half Dan Biggar has a major point to prove on his return to the side.
Biggar was excellent in the second half against France when he was introduced in place of Gareth Ansombe, who has not quite managed to transfer his outstanding regional form onto the international stage.
The jury remains out on Wales best half back combination as scrum half Gareth Davies, who began the tournament as most people’s first-choice No9, again having to settle for a place on the bench, this time behind Ospreys Aled Davies after Tomos Williams got the nod at the Stade de France.
Davies, it seems, has work to do to restore Gatland’s faith after an inconsistent season for Scarlets.
Further out, with Jonah Holmes and Josh Adams on the wings and the potency of Williams at full back, Wales fans can expect plenty of running rugby with the weather forecast in Rome set to be dry, bright and mild.
Key to achieving attacking fluency will be the performance of their back row, where Wasps flanker Thomas Young finally gets a crack at the big time after knocking on the door relentlessly with some outstanding displays in the Gallagher Premiership which have left Gatland little choice but to pick him.
With another stand out performer in Paris, Josh Navidi, moving to No8 and the hugely exciting Aaron Wainwright on the blindside Wales have somehow conjured up yet another back row of enormous potential, despite the absence of at least five international-class operators.
Young has waited patiently for his chance since making his only other international start against Tonga in Auckland in 2017 but on his day the 26-year-old is arguably the best out-and-out openside currently operating in the English Premiership and fully deserves the chance to prove his international worth.
Wainwright has made fewer headlines but in many ways is an even more exciting prospect and at 21-years-old he looks to have a long international career ahead of him, fitness permitting.
The return of Josh Ball to Wales’ second row is another huge plus after a horrible run of injuries and Gatland’s second-string players will be determined to show they should be given greater exposure in World Cup year.
It would be a surprise to see a similarly lackadaisical approach to the first 40 minutes which should have seen Wales sunk against France and, if they hit Italy hard in the opening period, the Azzurri will have no reserves of confidence to call on.
Italy have made a habit of pulling off shock wins with their backs to the wall over the years, but that habit appears to be fading.
Never say never, of course, but win number 11 should be on the cards for Wales. That is not disrespectful, but rather a rational assessment of where these two teams currently stand.
Wales are on the up, Italy fighting for their lives.
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