Dublin the sting in the form-book's tale

Six Nations 2003: England and France are clear favourites but the Irish will be looking forward to the last laugh

Once again the overwhelming temptation is to regard England's match with France as the acid Test in the RBS Six Nations' Championship. The evidence suggests that the winners at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon will go on to take the Blue Riband, although a redeeming feature of the tournament is its habit of allowing the underdog at least one visit to the poodle parlour.

Not that the English or French can be regarded as anything but thoroughbreds. Last season the defining match was at the Stade de France in March when England were beaten 20-15, maintaining a four-year sequence of being a coconut shy of the full bounty. It was England's only defeat of the championship, as France went on to take the Grand Slam.

Francis Barron, chief executive of the Rugby Football Union, considers the meeting ill-timed, arguing that it should have been switched to the end of March. "How can you have a championship determined by its first match?'' he asked, forgetting England's defeat by Wales, Scotland and Ireland in previous seasons. It is, of course, unwise to tempt fate, particularly as England conclude their campaign against the Irish in Dublin.

Nevertheless, Clive Woodward's squad are not only favourites to take Europe but have a genuine chance of winning the World Cup in Australia. Since their defeat in Paris, England, with a shadow XV, have beaten Argentina in Buenos Aires – the previous week, the Pumas had beaten France – followed by their southern hemisphere hat-trick in the autumn when New Zealand, Australia and South Africa underwent the Twickenham experience. France, meanwhile, twice lost to Australia, beat South Africa and drew with the All Blacks.

Both England and France are suffering from front-row trauma. With Phil Vickery and Julian White unable to take part in the two-day training session last week, Woodward is short of tighthead specialists. At least they were injured in the line of duty. Pieter de Villiers, possibly the best tighthead in the world, is in purdah after testing positive for cocaine and ecstasy. Although the South African-born player protests his innocence, he has been dropped by the coach Bernard Laporte and replaced by Christian Califano of Saracens. One man's agony is another's ecstasy.

England are grateful that Jason Leonard, a prop for all seasons, can play both loosehead and tighthead. The day before he wins his 100th cap, he is due to appear in court on a drink-driving charge, an even more wretched piece of timing than England's date with France.

The French are often vulnerable in the early stages of the championship and another factor in England's favour this year is that they have three of their five matches at Twickenham.

"If you follow the form book you wouldn't look outside England,'' Steve Hansen, the Wales coach, said. "It's the challenge to which the rest of us have to rise.'' Wales, who finished fifth last season, have as awkward an assignment in Italy as the Italian football team had in Cardiff last year.

The impression is that there is a banana skin in Rome with somebody's name on it, and the absence of Diego Dominguez, on whom Italy have relied for most of their points, is no bad thing. Under Dominguez, a kicking stand-off, the Italians were one-dimensional. Ramiro Pez, who plays for Rotherham, should have more to offer and he will be opposite Iestyn Harris. Stephen Jones has a broken thumb and with Neil Jenkins also injured the only other No 10 in the party is the uncapped Ceri Sweeney.

If France have one eye on the bigger picture, the World Cup, Ireland are the only other country capable of giving England a run for their money. "It's not a fantasy to believe Ireland can have an exceptionally good season,'' Keith Wood said. "You can afford to lose the odd game and still win the championship, although it's pretty vital you don't falter at the start.'' Wood, who is recovering from a shoulder operation, expects to return for the last two matches, although the captaincy is likely to stay, for a long time to come, with Brian O'Driscoll.

Ireland's start is against Scotland at Murrayfield next Sunday. The tournament has a new sponsor in the Royal Bank of Scotland, which is likely to be the only tartan outfit to go the distance. In the absence of Budge Pountney, who turned his back on Scotland after describing their approach as "unprofessional'', Ian McGeechan has brought in Andy Mower, another openside flanker plying his trade in the English Premiership. Mower was born in Australia and plays for Newcastle – Scottish and Newcastle as they might now be called. "Budge was consistently good for Scotland but the jersey moves on,'' McGeechan said.

While the Irish provinces Leinster and Munster have been acquitting themselves in the Heineken Cup, the Welsh clubs appear to be on their last legs and the Scots have not conspicuously benefited from the addition of Borders to the Edinburgh-Glasgow mix. Indeed, there are those north of the border who do not believe Scotland have the resources to fund a third professional team.

Colin Charvis, the Wales captain, has found an ally in Hansen, whose predecessor Graham Henry had a bittersweet relationship with the back-rower. "Graham didn't like me, Steve does,'' Charvis said, although it's not as simple as that. When Henry, having relinquished the Wales job, presented the players with their jerseys before the game with New Zealand last year, Charvis made a point of reminding everybody of Henry's achievements. "Graham was very analytical, whereas Steve has developed a much stronger bond between players and management,'' Charvis said.

Wales's immediate goal, without Scott Quinnell and Robert Howley, seems limited to survival. After Italy they play England at the Millennium Stadium and haven't beaten the Red Rose brigade in Cardiff for 10 years. That match has a kick-off time of 5.30, a novel manifestation of the influence of the BBC. It is claimed the number of Under-16s watching rugby is down by 50 per cent. By teatime on a Saturday the BBC is hoping to attract a family audience of millions, and keep them for the rest of the evening.

"This is prime time and it represents a huge gamble,'' said the man from the Beeb. "It has never been tried before. ITV would sell its soul to show soccer at 5.30pm on a Saturday.'' No matter that by the time the match finishes no trains will be running from Wales to England. The BBC has got the championship for the next three years for £70m, less than the asking price but still enough to call the tune.