Bristol the sign of troubled times ahead

Zurich Premiership: Thorburn's cry of anguish has echoes for all as the domestic game's sums still do not add up

Peter Thorburn was glancing a jaundiced eye over the fixture list. "Lunacy,'' he said. "Sheer lunacy.'' The Bristol Shoguns coach and chief bottle-washer was not commenting on the fraught climax to this season but the schedule for the next campaign in the Zurich Premiership.

In one week in October, for example, Bristol are due to play Bath away on Saturday, Wasps at home on Tuesday and Sale away on Friday. But even that would be preferable to being sent to Coventry or Plymouth Albion in National League One.

The Premiership list for 2003-04 is waiting to be amended with the deletion of the relegated club, and Bristol's name may be expunged from the top flight next month. They are one of five clubs – also on death row are Newcastle, London Irish, Bath and Saracens – involved in a nerve-racking finale. Most play today, and Bristol have a tough assignment at home to Wasps. Even if they survive, their fate is open to conjecture and the deal-makers.

Malcolm Pearce, the owner of Bristol, has been declaring, ad nauseam, that he is cutting his losses and departing the arid wastes of the Memorial Ground for greener pastures. So far it's been more of a threat than a promise.

When Bristol were relegated shortly after the game went professional they were interested in taking over London Scottish. They have since been linked to mergers with Newport and Gloucester (both nonsensical), and the latest initiative involves selling up to Firoz Kassam, the owner of Oxford United. The Kassam Stadium has already been used as a rugby venue.

However, Bristol's dogfight with Bath on 4 May is expected to attract a record crowd, not to the Memorial Ground which the club rent from Bristol Rovers, but to Ashton Gate, the home of Bristol City. If the Oxford option is impractical it could be the trigger to a shotgun wedding between the Shoguns and City. Another alternative is for Bristol to share with Bath which, following an initial West Country allergy to such a move, has a lot going for it, particularly if one of the clubs finish bottom.

Bath's problem is that the council-owned Recreation Ground is too small, but they seem to have been wrestling with this problem since the departure of the Romans. Bristol's problem is the opposite – they can't get enough people to the Memorial Ground. Pearce has set a target of recruiting 5,000 season-ticket holders before the end of this month. With each paying up to £250, the so-called "5,000 Club" would guarantee Bristol's future, but it is not looking good. Only 1,000 people have subscribed, which is 800 fewer than at the start of the season. Who will support Bristol if they go down?

"The people I feel sorry for are the supporters and the players,'' Thorburn said. "If the fans don't pay up they'll be blamed for the demise of the club. Nobody on the playing side knows what's going to happen. I'm just hoping to put a team together that will be competitive against Wasps.''

Last Wednesday night Bristol lost 43-13 at Northampton. With 13 players injured, including a complete front row, they were in danger of not being able to fulfil the fixture. The holes cannot be plugged. Cuts have been made, as they have at the other end of the table at Gloucester, where last week the coaches Peter Glanville and Ian Smith were shown the door.

At Bristol the squad don't even have the use of a team room; when they study videos there is no facility for slow- motion replays. Their physio room, according to one insider, "is not fit for a dog''.

Thorburn is director of rugby, head coach and forwards coach. "We're trying to salvage something,'' he said. "We're trying to do the best thing by the team. We have lots of talented players but it's an unremitting season which is physically very tough. They're flogging the animal to death.'' This did not prevent Pearce from pointing out that the players, who are well paid, "only work 48 hours a year''. He was talking about match time.

Thorburn, the former All Blacks selector who succeeded Dean Ryan at Bristol, is caught in the middle. "There's a difference between idealism and realism,'' he said, "but when you try to be realistic you're accused of being negative. People are getting very nervous. We're in the relegation zone and one of us is going down the drain.''

The players are talking to their agents, but rugby in England has become a buyers' market. Come the end of the season and there will be a lot of players chasing few positions for smaller salaries.

In the meantime, Bristol have the devil of a job concentrating on the task in hand. "There's a black cloud over our head,'' one player said, "and it's affecting our training and the way we play. It's human nature. Christ, this is our livelihood and we haven't got a clue about the future.''

As England look forward to the World Cup with rose-tinted glasses, the system credited with the country's development and success faces an introspective end to the season.

Even mighty Leicester, the standard bearers, have been forced into a reappraisal following their shocking exit at Welford Road last week from the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup. Munster made the Tigers look like an endangered species. Cornered, they were nervous and hesitant, leaving the championship of Europe to be fought between two clubs from Ireland, two from France.

For what it's worth, I'd take Munster to beat Toulouse and Perpignan to defeat Leinster in the semi-finals, which would blow a huge hole in the argument that home advantage is crucial.

Leicester made history in winning the Heineken and then retaining it, but it's difficult to see them winning it again in the foreseeable future. Can any English club do so, particularly one facing considerable disruption by supplying players to the England cause? The French do not labour under a salary cap, and clubs in a position to buy players – they can cherry-pick from the English market – should go from strength to strength.

After the RFU overwhelmingly lost the vote to France to stage the 2007 World Cup, a Paris-based English player sent an email to Clive Woodward informing the England manager that the French Federation admitted the Red Rose bid was superior but that England "didn't understand the politics''. A number of Premiership clubs, Bristol included, know the feeling.