Oxford believe the tide is turning

The Boat Race: Six-year dominance of Cambridge is under threat today as well-matched crews promise tight finish

THE BOAT RACE, the 145th edition of which starts at 3.30pm today, will not be decided until well into the second half of the four-and-a- half-mile course with two very good, and very even, crews equally convinced of their ability and will to win.

They arrive at this equality from different places. Oxford, after six years of defeat, have built up a strong squad with a dozen men who might expect to win a Blue in another year, including two past Blues, now racing for the reserves, Isis. Cambridge, in contrast, have a small group of the highly talented and few extra contenders for the top boat.

The similarities, some interesting but superficial, and others fundamental to their speed are numerous. Each is stroked by a German. Colin von Ettingshausen had retired after the Atlanta Olympics following a career in the German team, winning a World Championship eights gold medal and Olympic silver behind Steven Redgrave and Matthew Pinsent in the pair in Barcelona.

Von Ettingshausen came to Oxford unfit, but wise to the way you build up your training and authority through a season to take a key seat. His coolness under pressure will be critical to Oxford's tactical choices.

Against him is Tim Wooge, who hails from just 15km away in the Ruhr Valley but has done most of his recent rowing at Northeastern University in the United States. He took some time to adapt to the Cambridge style and Robin Williams, the chief coach, put him in the bows early on and worked hard to get him into the Light Blue rhythm before moving him to stroke. That left the Welsh-American Dai Ellis the freedom to come back to No 5, where his power and racing nous can underpin the effort of the whole.

At No 7 each crew has a member of recent British eights, Graham Smith for Cambridge and Oxford's Andrew Lindsay. They have Sydney 2000 in sight and are using the Boat Race as the best source of training while finishing formal education. They will be contestants for the same seat in the British eight this year..

There are two Americans in the same seats, Nos 4 and 5, in each boat: Oxford has Martin Croty and Toby Ayer. Croty is a nearly man, having twice finished fourth in World Championships in the United States coxed four and was by two seconds the strongest of all the Boat Race oarsmen on the indoor rowing machines at the National Ergometer Championships last November.

At 23 he has plenty of time to prove his worth at Olympic level and the Boat Race is just a stage on that road. Ayer is not submerged into the rhythm of the crew like Croty but has learned to fit in. Although he carries his blade higher than the rest of the stroke side, Ayer applies the work in exactly the same way.

The two American Light Blues are even more different; Ellis, at 6ft 5in the shorter by four inches, is a dedicated achiever who could race at the highest level provided his back can take the strain. Behind him Josh West, at 6ft 9in the tallest man ever to row in the race, looks awkward folded in the cockpit but has the reputation of making every boat he is in go a little faster.

There are two freshmen Britons, Tom Stallard at No 2 for the Light Blues and Dan Snow, filling the No 3 spot for Oxford. English public school educated and 20 years old, each defies his origins by bringing a "nutter" quality to their desire to win. In the Ergometer Championships each had to impress to make a place; Snow went out too fast but hung on when he hit the wall and kept going through a sea of lactic acid. Stallard crammed in a great performance for his weight and height by rowing very short sharp strokes for the last minute.

Two surviving Blues find themselves in the bows. Toby Wallace won the race with Cambridge last year and is the biggest bow man ever at 6ft 7in and 15st 2lb. Henrik Nilsson, the first Swede to compete in the race, in 1998, is at No 2, in front of his Oxford president, Charlie Humphreys, who is the lightest in either crew and a survivor from last year. In contrast, James Roycroft and Nick Robinson have both dropped into Isis for this race.

The Cambridge president, Brad Crombie, is in his third race. "The one thing I can be definite about is this is my last race of any sort," he said. Crombie added that he is determined to go out on a winning note, but it is impossible to make any promises in this race.

Perhaps it is safest to bet that the head breeze which is forecast for the first half of the race will give Oxford's cleverer watermanship the slight advantage, allowing their experience and basic strength a chance to carry through, but it will be close enough to render any predictions meaningless.