NFL week 11 analysis: Five things we learnt as Peyton Manning's job security is in doubt

Week 11 is over and there were a number of surprises across the NFL this week. Zander Swinburne examines which two AFC South teams could slip into the play-offs, which veteran QB is unlikely to lose his job, as well as which California team could be picking first in next year’s draft.

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November has been kind to Houston

It can be easy in the first half of the season to assign a team to the early off-season bin. Often if a team starts poorly, they remain that way. Yet it appears as though a number of teams are experiencing a mid-season surge which could just change their holiday plans in January.

Having given their fans very little to cheer about through September and October, the Houston Texans have become the NFL’s late bloomers in recent weeks, stringing together some impressive wins. On Sunday, Houston shrugged off a fellow play-off contender, beating the New York Jets 24-17 in front of their home fans. The win improves their record to 5-5, and considering they were 2-5 less than a month ago their turnaround has been quite significant.

Despite their inability to stay settled at the quarterback position, this has apparently had little effect. As soon as Brian Hoyer looked secure in the Texans pocket, his recent concussion raised doubts as to whether Houston could prepare TJ Yates in time to face New York. However, one could argue the change of quarterback did the southern state team some good as Yates was at the very least not a liability against the Jets, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions.

With three straight wins this month, November has been kind to the Texans. They’ve now been given the foundation to reach the play-offs; a similar streak in December is needed if they are to follow it up and make the post-season.

Manning hasn’t lost his job just yet

The NFL is not a league renowned for its sense of patience. Just as a team starts to lose, it isn’t long before someone demands the coaching staff be fired. The same goes for a quarterback if he’s unable to string a few good performances together. Even players who have been highly successful throughout a long and established career can often be demanded to be benched.

Quite surprisingly, this seasons target for a benching has been one of the league’s greats, Peyton Manning. The 18-year pro has seen his numbers slip, and only last week he was uncharacteristically substituted following one of the worst games of his career. This week there was no option but to start backup Brock Osweiler against the Chicago Bears, not because of Manning’s dire performance the week before but because of an injured left heel.

Osweiler took advantage of his starting opportunity, leading the Broncos to a 17-15 win over the Chicago Bears. Osweiler finished the game with 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, a perfectly acceptable game for an NFL starting quarterback. To some, this may be concrete evidence that it is now time for Manning to be permanently benched, and that his tenure as starter is only supported by what he has done before rather than what he can do now.

Despite this, it might be premature to make a change. Whilst Manning has evidently not been at his best, Osweiler simply did what a backup quarterback is expected to do in the event of an injury. He has come in and kept the ship steady, something he has now been asked to do again next week. What he can’t be proven to do is lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl title, something which No 18 is needed for.

It’s easy to over-inflate a backup’s role, but unless Manning has a complete meltdown upon his return, Osweiler will likely continue to be the understudy. The Broncos need a proven winner in December; one victory for Osweiler surely isn’t enough to trump Manning in that department.

San Diego may be selecting first in next year’s draft

What has happened in San Diego? After going into this season as play-off contenders, they have fallen very far from grace in recent weeks. With two back-to-back 9-7 seasons, San Diego were hoping that this year they would break double digit wins and start challenging the Broncos for the AFC West. This hasn’t happened in the slightest and with a 2-8 record now a firm reality, the number one pick in the 2016 draft is looking more and more likely.

San Diego’s latest loss came on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, far from the league’s most formidable opponent. The Chargers were completely dominated, losing 33-3 in a game that was even more one sided than the score suggests. What’s surprising is that the Chargers do not have an inherently untalented team. Philip Rivers is still considered by many as a top franchise quarterback, one that several GM’s may well sell the farm for come the off-season. Keenan Allen at wide receiver as well as Antonio Gates at tight end have also all been integral parts of San Diego’s offence that has produced success in the past.

Despite this, the cracks are beginning to show in San Diego’s locker room as a heated discussion between Rivers and Gates on the sideline of Sunday’s game proved the chemistry between quarterback and receiver has seemingly disappeared.

This season is now completely lost for the Chargers, and a complete clean out of the team’s front office could easily take place in January. Despite being a team that has consistently been amongst the league’s contenders for a number of years, we could be faced with the strange scenario of having San Diego on the clock come 4th January.

Cincinnati have started to show their play-off jitters

The Cincinnati Bengals have been a franchise that has gradually improved over the last few years. Despite continually making the play-offs year after year, they have become renowned for their inability to make it past the wild card round. Their inability to win the big games when they matter most has plagued Cincinnati, and they have worryingly shown signs of such tendencies again.

On Sunday, Cincinnati were forced to endure their second loss in a row, succumbing to the Arizona Cardinals 34-31 during the day’s most watched time slot. The Bengals by no means had a terrible game, and in reality it was the Cardinals who won the game rather the Bengals who lost it. Nevertheless, these are the types of opponents the Bengals will almost certainly face in the playoffs, and thus learning how to win such games now will save further embarrassment should they fail to progress for the fifth straight time.

Their loss to the Houston Texans in week 10 was also an example of Cincinnati losing a high profile game to a team they should easily beat, something that has also been a factor in the Bengals’ failures in the play-offs.

One should not forget the eight wins that have come before the two recent losses so the panic button is far from being pressed in Ohio. Nevertheless, their two most recent losses will no doubt raise some questions as to how well their postseason preparations are going.

Can Jacksonville really make the play-offs?

For years the Jacksonville Jaguars have been truly terrible. Not only had they failed to improve year on year, but the franchise was seemingly a carousel for players a coaches alike, one where they would hop on and barely a year later would be out of a job. This year has been different however, and the Jaguars looked to have clawed their way back into relevancy.

Despite starting the season in the usual Jacksonville fashion, with victories sandwiched together by a string of losses, they look to have turned things around. On Thursday night, the Jaguars walked away with their second straight victory after beating the Tennessee Titans 19-13. It was only the first time since 2013 that they won back to back games. Although Tennessee are one of the worst teams in the league, Jacksonville looked decent, stringing a few nice drives together whilst their quarterback’s ability is evidently improving week by week.

Now at 4-6, Jacksonville are somehow back in the play-off race. Whilst their record virtually puts them out of the running for a wild card spot, the ineptitude of their fellow AFC South opponents has provided some hope. Indianapolis continues to lead the division but only with one game in hand at 5-5. Houston’s 5-5 record is nothing special either so if Jacksonville were to develop a winning streak, they could easily find themselves playing in January for the first time since 2007. The Jaguars still have three more divisional games to play over the next few weeks. Those matchups look set to be amongst the most important for Jacksonville in years.