F1 2018 preview: Lewis Hamilton vs Sebastian Vettel, the rebirth of McLaren, technical tweaks and a dark horse
After all the usual hoopla associated with the test sessions in Barcelona, the new Formula One season is about to get down to business in Melbourne – and it’s more open than ever
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Your support makes all the difference.Like boxers doing their pre-fight walk to the ring, three of F1’s leading contenders strutted their stuff here in Albert Park on Thursday, but there were no ear-bursting anthems to accompany them, and there were far more smiles than “I can’t wait to punch you” glares.
After all the usual hoopla associated with the test sessions in Barcelona, it’s good to see the 2018 season finally kicking off. To know that within 72 hours the first truths will be known.
Right now, the exact performance of each car remains a mystery that won’t begin to unravel until the first practice sessions tomorrow. But several things are clear.
Hamilton and Vettel chase Fangio
Clearly, the fight between Mercedes and Ferrari, which lit up much of 2017 after three years of complete domination by the Silver Arrows, is set to continue. But adding spice is the battle between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel to win a fifth world title, which would put the victor level with the legendary Juan Manuel Fangio.
Both men were at pains to play that down, but each is aware that it will be a key interest for fans.
“It’s a long, long season, so I don’t think about those things, of what could be, in the sense of matching others,” Hamilton said. “In my mind I want to break barriers, push the envelope and see how far I can take the ability I have and reach my full potential. I don’t know what that is, so that’s what I’m discovering.
“I hope that I haven’t reached my peak yet. I’m sure there is one, when your fitness level is harder to reach or your interest or drive starts to decline, but I’m definitely not there. I’m in a good range right now and aim to continue to extract the most that I can.”
Vettel took a similar view. “Obviously I’ve had more time to think about it than Lewis, more than one winter,” he said, his last title coming in 2013. “But I’m not setting these things out, looking forward to what could possibly happen.
“Certainly, if it would happen it would mean a lot and then I would realise what I had achieved, but right now I’m happy to look at what’s right in front of me and not what could be somewhere in the future.
"That’s a long way ahead, and we all know how many things need to come together to fight for the championship to the end of the season, and to win it. Times are also very different to when Fangio achieved his five titles, and every era has its different challenges. So it’s not in my mind now, let’s say.”
Both acknowledged, however, that, just like Ayton Senna with Alain Prost, the presence of the other validates their own performance, and that in years to come they will be able to look back and say they raced against the best.
Ferrari channel Mercedes and Red Bull
Ferrari have opted to follow Mercedes’ lead in running a longer wheelbase, to enhance their SF71H’s aerodynamics and to make it handle better on fast circuits, but have also gone for high rake, like Red Bull, when the front of the chassis runs lower to the ground than the rear in another effort to generate greater downforce.
Mercedes, meanwhile, have addressed the shortcomings of their W08, and designer Aldo Costa now believes that 2017’s ‘diva’ can be turned into “more of a princess” to behave more consistently on all types of circuit. Meanwhile, an all-new engine promises even greater power, with close to 1000 bhp in race trim.
The dark horse will once again be Red Bull, who run their new RB14 with Aston Martin backing. Based on their testing performance, Hamilton believes they will be a strong contender. So do drivers Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen.
“We are better prepared than last year,” Ricciardo said. “We had a good winter, and it’s all there in front of us now. There will still be three top teams – Mercedes, Ferrari and us – leading the pack, and hopefully we’ll be deep in that front group.”
The smart money is on Mercedes, with Ferrari and Red Bull alternating depending on circuit characteristics.
What’s new technically?
First, of course, is the mandatory addition of the protective cockpit device known as the halo, which has split opinion more than anything since the days of turbocharged engines, while the closure of an aerodynamic loophole has done away with the controversial shark fins and T wings.
Each driver must now get through the season with just three power units rather than four. Thus each power unit must do at least seven races.
The rule on oil burning practises has also been tightened up. In the past some engine manufacturers used one-way valves in their oil systems which enabled a measure of lubricant to find its way into the combustion chambers so that the power units had something other than the 105 kg allowance of fuel to consume. This enabled their teams to ramp up their power for the final session of qualifying, so it will be fascinating to see whether this crucial redefinition evens things up in Q3.
The sporting regulations governing grid penalties have been changed to avoid a situation where a driver can accrue a silly number of penalties; now if he gets 15 he automatically goes to the back of the grid on that score alone, and if more than one driver is penalised, their formation at the back will be decided by the order in which power units are changed.
Pirelli have introduced two further dry-tyre compounds, so we now have seven instead of five, plus the two usual wet-weather compounds. Thus we have, in descending order of softness: hypersofts (pink sidewalls); ultrasofts (purple); supersofts (red); softs (yellow); mediums (white); hards (blue) and superhards (orange), plus intermediates (green) and wets (blue).
All of the dry compounds have gone one step softer, and the more aggressive approach is intended to generate more degradation and thus more pit stops, plus greater strategic opportunities. Whether this achieves the aim of spicing up the racing or just makes things more difficult for the casual viewer to follow, remains to be seen.
What else should we look out for?
The indications from testing are that the fight in the upper midfield will be a humdinger, Last year Force India beat Williams and Renault to fourth place behind the Big Three. The Silverstone team will be fighting hard again in their ‘best bang for the bucks’ manner, but Renault are ramping up their challenge and McLaren have a major point to prove after switching from Honda to Renault power.
All three will have some exciting intra-team fights, Esteban Ocon vs Sergio Perez at Force India; Nico Hulkenberg and Carlos Sainz at Renault; and Fernando Alonso and Stoffel Vandoorne at McLaren.
The American Haas team, entering their third season, set some very competitive times in testing, so their progress will bear watching, as will that of Toro Rosso, who believe they can achieve the results with Honda that eluded McLaren.
Additionally, the performance of rookies Charles Leclerc and Sergey Sirotkin, who graduate from Formula 2 at Alfa Romeo Sauber and Martini Williams respectively, will be monitored keenly by the big teams.
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