Racing: O'Neill's Mini Sensation rises on flood of money

Even tucked away in a flooded valley in deepest Monmouthshire on a weekday afternoon the bookmakers are still not safe from JP McManus. Yesterday the Irish owner, who has landed more gambles than Biggles did Spitfires, was at it again when Mini Sensation caused maximum pain to the satchel men by winning the Welsh National here.

An afterthought in the lists at 25-1 last weekend, the Jonjo O'Neill-trained nine-year-old had been nibbled at sufficiently to stand at 18-1 by yesterday morning. And then came the deluge, more substantial even than the downpour that had hit Chepstow in the days over Christmas and threatened the meeting to such an extent that it was only passed fit to race hours before flag time.

When the starter did eventually raise the flag, the price had plummeted to 8-1 and 10 gruelling minutes later after a mud-splattered spectacular that saw four horses in contention at the final fence of this 3m 5f slog, Tony Dobbin drove Mini Sensation out to beat Henrietta Knight's Chives by six lengths into second, with the favourite, Gunner Welburn, 13 lengths back in third. Frosty Canyon led home the other three finishers as the heavy ground wreaked havoc with the form book.

Such inconsistencies did not stop the stewards from calling in O'Neill to explain the winner's upturn in fortunes since a woeful performance at Wetherby three weeks ago. But if O'Neill, who has recently had to pay out two hefty fines under the "non-triers" rule, was unable to offer an explanation then, he was quick to point out this had more to do with the erratic temperament and jumping of Mini Sensation. "I've never ever seen him jump like that before – sometimes he takes half an hour to get going," O'Neill said. "He has more bad days than good."

The same can no longer be said of O'Neill, who since being set up by McManus at Jackdaws Castle in Gloucestershire 18 months ago, has started to provide a suitable postscript as a trainer to his glorious career in the saddle. On Boxing Day, Intersky Falcon cemented his place at the head of the betting for the Champion Hurdle and in Mini Sensation he has a small gutsy animal who, given the right ground and continued improvement, could make a mockery of the 25-1 offered for the Grand National in April.

Any interest from the right faces – or right initials for that matter – will be greeted with drastic action from the bookies, although O'Neill looked mystified when being congratulated on "a nice touch". "I know he has been well-backed here, but he has been well-backed before and has always disappointed," he said. "I'm not sure if JP was on or not." In the unlikely event that he was not then somebody was.

The second, Chives, caught the eye with a weight-carrying performance that had his trainer dreaming of rain clouds in March. Knight, of course, has the seemingly peerless Best Mate in her care but feels Chives could give his stablemate a scare if conditions are suitably soggy. "If it was soft in the Gold Cup then he'd nearly beat Best Mate," she said.

"This horse is Gold Cup class, I mean that. He did concede almost two stone to a good winner in bottomless ground." Indeed, had Richard Guest's mount not pecked on landing at the last the result could have been different. The 33-1 available for the Gold Cup looks scandalously generous. Two out, as the seven-year-old hunted down Gunner Welburn, Frosty Canyon and Mini Sensation, Guest was in the armchair while the rest were pressing the panic button.

Frosty Canyon and the 5-2 favourite Gunner Welburn were the first to fold – the latter paying for contesting the lead with Frantic Tan and Murt's Man – so ensuring that Ian Balding would not have the golden handshake he wanted before he hands over the keys to his training establishment to his son Andrew on New Year's Day. Then came Chives' blunder before the 22lb concession and the Welsh mud took its toll.

The ground had dished out similar punishment earlier in the day when Carl Llewellyn had made an audacious attempt to make all in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle. Lewis Island was 35 lengths clear by halfway and setting sail for home with the water splashing under his feet. Two out the mud started to stick and both Nas Na Riogh and Le Duc skipped past. The latter fell at the last, handing it to Nicky Henderson's four-year-old who was quoted at 20-1 for the Triumph Hurdle. Another horse full of soft-ground promise on a day when muck really did make brass.