Mutamam has look of another Mtoto

Eighteen horses were declared yesterday for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, but if the ante-post books are any guide, 16 of them might as well be watching from the stands. Galileo, the Derby winner at both Epsom and the Curragh, is no better than 4-7 with the major bookies to uphold the good name of the Classic generation this weekend, while Fantastic Light, who won the Prince of Wales's Stakes at the Royal meeting, is 5-2. The prices imply that the chance that one of the remainder will spring a surprise is about 9-1 against.

Assumptions can be a costly commodity at Ascot, however. Galileo will be the 19th horse to start at odds-on for the King George in 51 runnings of the race, and while 12 of those before him – including Montjeu, who galloped in at 1-3 12 months ago – justified their odds, another six did not. In 1964, Santa Claus was beaten at 2-13, while four years earlier, Petite Etoile failed to oblige at 2-5. The 1997 running, too, failed to follow the script. Singspiel, Pilsudski and Helissio arrived at Ascot for what was reckoned to be the race of the decade – only for Swain to beat them all at 16-1.

Saeed bin Suroor, the trainer of Fantastic Light, certainly believes that Galileo can be beaten, and yesterday went so far as to claim that his horse is "the one to beat" this weekend. "He's in top form, as he showed at Royal Ascot, and he has a wealth of experience in big races," the trainer said. "He worked very well with Frankie last Saturday and we gave him another blow-out over seven furlongs two days ago. He looks great and I couldn't be more happy with him. I respect Galileo, who looks like he's a very special horse, but he'll have to beat Fantastic Light to prove that he's a real champion."

At the likely odds, though, many punters will look for an each-way alternative to the front two, and one horse who may attract money between now and Saturday is Mutamam, who finished fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf last year, and won the Group Two Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket on his belated seasonal debut two weeks ago.

Mutamam is trained by Alec Stewart, who saddled Mtoto to win the King George in 1988. Mutamam is a nephew of that brilliant horse, and as with so many members of the family, seems to be getting better with each passing season.

Stewart has yet to finally commit Mutamam to Saturday's race, since he is worried about the so-called "bounce" effect which so often seems to afflict horses who have run well after a long lay-off. "The horse appears fine, but I'm still not going to commit to the race," Stewart said yesterday. "Sheikh Hamdan [Mutamam's owner] is extremely keen to go, so we'll watch him closely over the next few days, and I would say that he is likely to run."

Stewart sees similarities between Mutamam and his previous King George winner, and also with his colt Wagon Master, who finished third to King's Theatre in 1994. "Mutamam shares Mtoto's gameness," he said, "and he's as genuine as they come, though he possibly lacks the acceleration and brilliance that Mtoto had. He's got great durability and guts and while he's probably got a little to find to win a really competitive Group One, he's very, very nearly up to Group One standard. He's a very similar type to Wagon Master, although I'd say that this one is a little bit better."

Mtoto foiled a massive gamble on Unfuwain when he won the King George, and Mutamam too will need to beat a strongly-supported three-year-old if he is to win the race. "The only form line I can see from the three-year-olds is Tobougg's very good run in the Eclipse, and that's quite difficult to weigh up," Stewart said. "Saturday's race will be really hard to win, but this horse is ready for a challenge."