Doping scandal: Expect to see Russians on the start line in Rio

Accusations must be proven in court – otherwise they are baseless

The Olympic and Russian flags fly side-by-side at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games (Getty Images)

Never before in the history of the Olympics has a nation been banned from competing as a result of doping offences.

There have been a litany of political suspensions in the past but, if Russia were to be shunned from Rio 2016, it would be a gargantuan step forward for what are effectively the sporting police.

Dick Pound, the chairman of the Wada independent commission into doping in Russian athletics, described such a move as “the nuclear option”. It’s clear that Pound, the greatest aggressor in this saga, does not want to see that happen. The IAAF and Wada would be even less keen to see such a story play out.

The reality is that a Russian contingent will be competing in Rio. For one, there is enough time for them to get their house in order – or more cynically, give the impression of having their house in order – with nine months left until the next Games.

Russia’s athletics federation (ARAF) and the Russian Anti-Doping Agency (RUSADA) were both accused of being non-compliant, in effect their policy was not in line with Wada’s doping code. It is now up to Russian officials to prove they can be compliant. Doing that may not seem like a small feat bearing in mind the level of cheating laid bare in the explosive report but it’s worth noting countries like Kenya are deemed compliant when clearly the number of failed drugs tests say otherwise.

Pound talked of the state-run doping programme that had echoes of the Cold War era and is adamant this scandal has made its way to the Kremlin. Security officials were involved, coaches too in widespread fashion and athletes were basically told they could take part in doping or they were out, not a part of the Russian athletics set-up, a stark choice for any athlete.

Pound met with the Russian Minister for Sport, Vitaly Mutko, in September for what he called “a candid conversation” but the reality is that the same regime that allowed such widespread doping to take place essentially remains in power despite calls for coaches, athletes and a doctor to be banned for life with immediate effect.

Mutko has been combative rather than compliant saying: “There is no need to get confused, the commission does not have the right to suspend anyone,” and threatening to cut government funding for all anti-doping work within Russia.

Wada when it meets next week in Colorado Springs will become more heavily involved in the process of what’s next, so too the IAAF, whose president Seb Coe has asked his council members whether to take sanctions against the Russians. Both bodies are likely to bow to massive international pressure, defy Mutko and inflict punishment, albeit most likely temporary.

But that could get messy first, with Russia’s Federal Biomechanical Agency, which oversees lab testing in the country, stating that “Wada’s accusations must be proven in court otherwise these are just baseless claims voiced months before the next Games”.

For those at the head of Russian athletics, sport more broadly and wider still, politics, there is the real fear the report will result in little more than them having their knuckles rapped.

Sanctions will follow, but there just seems an inevitability that a compromise will be reached that ensures Russia – warts and all – will compete across the board at the next Olympics.