World Cup 2018: Only humble respect for Sweden will set Gareth Southgate's England up for victory in Samara

Any arrogance in England’s display, any complacency, any sense that they should be breezing past Sweden, will be swiftly turned against them in Saturday's quarter-final

This deep into a tournament, every impression a team has of itself gets tested on the pitch. Colombia was a test of England’s new-found cool under pressure, facing the worst provocation they have ever seen in football, conceding a sickening added-time equaliser, emerging through a penalty shoot-out no-one thought they would win.

On Saturday in Samara, it is England’s new-found humility that will be on trial.

Sweden will not play England off the park. Of course they can win, but if they do win, it will be by luring England into their trap, beckoning them further and further forward then hitting them on the break. Just like they did to Mexico, South Korea and Switzerland, and like they should have done to Germany.

Any arrogance in England’s display, any complacency, any sense that they should be breezing past Sweden, will be swiftly turned against them. Attack without rigorous focus and Sweden will just head the ball clear. Carelessy give the ball away and Sweden will break. Throw too many men forward and they will invite serious danger. Start thinking about being in Moscow next Wednesday and they will be back in England by Monday, having to watch Sweden playing there instead.

Only a humble respect for Sweden, an acknowledgement of what they are trying, and what they want England to do, will set up success on Saturday evening.

That has been Southgate’s modest message from the moment Eric Dier’s penalty beat David Ospina just before midnight in Moscow on Tuesday. “Sweden are often underestimated, I have real respect for them,” Southgate said, once again defining himself against the arrogance of the English past. “We have always viewed them at our level, and I don’t think that’s right. Because their tournament record is better than ours.”

That is typical Southgate, reminding us that we have never been as good as we thought, hoping that doing so will free the players up from heavy expectations. Seeing England’s performances so far, especially the penalties against Colombia, suggests he may be right.

But Sweden are not buying it, not yet. Sebastian Larsson knows more than enough about the mentality of English football, after a long career in the Premier League. Speaking about how “sweet” it would be to knock England out on their way to the semi-finals, Larsson expects the pressure to get to the English players in the end.

“They’ve generally kept a lower profile than we are used to,” Larsson said. “They seem to always drift away even before the tournament starts, but not now. This has worked well for them so far. But I know how things work over there. Now they will expect to beat us. That is for the English players to handle. If they go out to us, they will be in for a hard time.” That is certainly true, as much as Southgate might want to cast England as the underdogs for this game.

Sebastian Larsson knows more than enough about the mentality of English football (REUTERS)

The onus on Saturday will be on England to try to cut Sweden open. They will be immaculately organised, as ever, meaning that England will have to be more incisive than they have been so far – two open-play goals in four games, remember – to get through.

Sweden scout Tom Prahl has his doubts. Speaking to Expressen, he did acknowledge that the English style has evolved, that it is no longer just “kick and rush”, that England now have “much more method to their build-up”, and how strong they are at set plays. “In terms of weaknesses, they aren’t very good at moving the ball quickly, not like teams from southern Europe,” Prahl said. “They’ve not been under that much pressure, I think their opposition has backed off quite a bit, so they’ve been given the opportunity to move it nice and slow. So that is a big question for me: whether they will be able to open us up if we press them higher?”

It will be a difficult balance for England: attacking quickly and sharply enough to break down one of the best defences left in the tournament, while never leaving themselves too open on the break. That message has been drilled into the players already, and speaking in Repino on Thursday afternoon they sounded like a team who were well-briefed on what they have to do, and what they have to avoid.

Gareth Southgate so far has done his best to keep England grounded (Getty Images)

“Sweden are good on the counter-attack and we need to be aware of that,” Kieran Trippier said. “We just need to move the ball quickly if they do sit off. We need to manage the game well, make the pitch as wide as possible and just try to find those little pockets for Raheem. That is how we will hurt teams. We just need to move the ball quickly round the back like we did in the first two games.”

John Stones is expecting a similar challenge. “They play very structured at the back and sit quite deep,” he said. “Sometimes these teams can throw you, they can go under the radar, but there is no question they are a good team. We show them the respect we do to every team.”

That is the humility and modesty England will need on Saturday. Not our dominant national characteristics, perhaps, but this is a new England team, with a new ethos. They will need to take Southgate’s message on board in Samara, to stop them from beating themselves.