World Cup 2018: Gareth Southgate admits England would struggle to not do their all to beat Belgium

Losing to Belgium would seal a more favourable route with less travel - but can England bring themselves to do it?

Gareth Southgate got right to the nub of the matter. “For our country,” he said, “that would be a very difficult mindset to have.”

Southgate had been asked, in the aftermath of England’s 6-1 win over Panama, whether he would try to win Thursday’s game with Belgium in Kaliningrad. His opposite number Roberto Martinez is considering making plenty of changes, with Belgium seemingly relaxed about finishing second in Group G. That means staying in Moscow for their last-16 tie at the Luzhniki Stadium, with an extra day of rest behind them, rather than slogging down to Rostov to play in the heat. It probably means an easier quarter-final too, likelier against Mexico rather than Germany or Brazil.

That might sound like the clever option, then. Not throwing the game, of course, but not exactly going all-in for the win. With a reward of less travel and an easier route if they do. You might even think that England should do the same, rather than marching with open eyes into the gunfire ahead.

But Southgate knows that this is not England’s way. The English are not a canny people. This is a place, after all, where being “too clever” is seen as a moral failure. To play a World Cup match and to not try to win it would be anathema to England. It would offend something deep within fans.

“We want to win every game of football we go into,” he said. “I don’t know how we would go into a game not wanting to win, and not wanting to play well.”

Then there is the problem that no mapped route to the final can long survive contact with real results. World Cups never happen quite how you expect. That is the whole point. And a route that looks simple from a distance might be far more treacherous when you get there. “I think that’s dangerous territory,” said Southgate, “if we start trying to plot and predict where we might end up.”

The dark shadow of Euro 2016 still lingers over this campaign. Two years ago England had an unthreatening group, and then in the last-16 they faced they unfancied Iceland. It looked easy but of course it went disastrously wrong. “We had a really favourable draw, we all thought, in the last tournament and it didn’t work out that way,” Southgate pointed out.

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Then there is the crucial issue of momentum. In a tournament you either have it or you do not, and England currently have more momentum than they have had in any tournament since Euro 2004, when they arrived at their quarter-final after beating Switzerland 3-0 and Croatia 4-2. They now face the classic dilemma of a tournament team who has won their first two games: do they rest players to keep them fresh for the knock-outs? Or do they keep playing their best players and not let that fragile flame die out?

Two years ago, Roy Hodgson squandered any positivity from beating Wales in stoppage time by making six changes for the third game against Slovakia. That was a dismal 0-0 and England never got going again. Some teams are smart enough to turn the tap off and then back on again, as Spain did in Euro 2008, rotating for the third game and then going again. But should England risk trying the same thing?

“I think we just have to keep playing as well as we can,” Southgate said. “Keep preparing the team right way, keep the momentum. And I have to keep the squad involved, that’s the one thing I think is really important.”

So there will be some changes, then, as Southgate rests those who have given the most in the heat so far. That is why Marcus Rashford could come in for Raheem Sterling, and Danny Rose for Ashley Young.

“Today would have taken a lot out of everybody, and of course there’s a short turnaround between the game against Belgium and the next round,” Southgate said. “We have to manage energy. We’re better placed to do that because we keep the ball longer but nevertheless, even though we dominated possession, you could see the players at the end. It has taken a lot out of them. The physical part is something we have to manage well.”

This is the challenge. Changing enough to keep the players fresh going into the last-16. While never losing that hunger or that momentum that England have worked so hard to generate. A balancing act for a man who has so far barely put a foot wrong. “I’ve got to think through all of those things,” Southgate said, “competition for places, players who need match minutes and keeping the unity of the squad.”