Manchester United transfer news: Should Paulo Dybala's poor season at Juventus cause concern?

Should United be worried by target's underwhelming 12 months?

Five goals in Serie A, mostly against the likes of Cagliari, Bologna and Frosinone. Five more in the Champions League, four of which came against Young Boys. Any Manchester United supporters who are not overly familiar with Paulo Dybala’s body of work could be forgiven for glancing at his most recent output alone and wondering what all this fuss is about.

Last season was a poor one by Dybala’s standards, particularly as it followed a 26-goal campaign which appeared to announce him as one of European football’s truly elite talents. There was his near-single-handed demolition of Barcelona the year before that, too. Should, then, a lean year cause any concern for his potential suitors?

There is one, obvious mitigating factor to explain Dybala’s difficulties: the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo . Some, including the former Juventus midfielder Andrea Pirlo, have suggested Dybala is almost suffering from an inferiority complex, having been forced to play in the shadow of a five-time Ballon d’Or winner.

“I think the problem is psychological,” Pirlo claimed in April, after Juventus’ Champions League quarter-final exit. “When you have the chance to play with a striker like Cristiano Ronaldo, you should be happy about playing with him. You should be happy to learn from such a great champion.”

There is an irony that after a nine-year long battle for supremacy with Lionel Messi in La Liga, Ronaldo should arrive in Serie A and immediately suffocate the player earmarked as Messi’s heir. Yet that is precisely what happened, with Dybala shifted wide right as Massimiliano Allegri re-configuring Juventus’ approach to suit Ronaldo’s greater physicality.

This was borne out in Juventus’ numbers. Allegri’s side began to play more crosses than at any point during his five years in charge, and that despite regularly fielding a winger in Dybala who was more comfortable turning inside. Juventus also played more long balls than any team in Serie A’s top six; more, even, than relegated Empoli.

The difference is there to see in Dybala’s individual statistics, too. Whereas he averaged four shots every 90 minutes in his previous three Serie A seasons at Juventus, he managed less than three last year. His expected goals more than halved when compared to his three-year average, and his expected assists also fell dramatically.

Dybala's shots-per-90

Serie A only

15/16: 3.9 

16/17: 3.7

17/18: 4.4

18/19: 2.7

A ‘cooling off’ was always likely after Dybala’s brilliant 2017-18 campaign. Then, nine of his 22 league goals were either from outside the penalty area or low-quality opportunities. He was always unlikely to repeat that level of performance the following year, though for his output to decline as sharply as it did was a surprise.

Perhaps Pirlo was right to question Dybala’s mentality post-Ronaldo, but the relatively good relationship that the two share would suggest otherwise. It was only in February during the win over Frosinone that Ronaldo – not usually one to compromise his personal brand – combined his trademark ‘siu’ celebration with Dybala’s ‘mask’ equivalent.

It seems safest to say that Dybala’s difficulties last year were a tactical issue: an unfortunate side-effect of a team realigned to suit a superstar, and a former leading player re-positioned in an unfamiliar role. Dybala’s output and performances dipped but that does not necessarily point to a decline.

This is still a player who has consistently produced performances which suggest he is one of the finest forwards on the continent; still widely labelled as Messi’s successor at international level, still the player Diego Maradona calls a “phenomenon”. He is still just 25-years-old too, and about to enter his prime.

He needs to return to a more central and influential role, in a team which works as a collective rather than in the service of one superstar. Whether that club is Manchester United, and whether Dybala can be convinced of that, remains to be seen.