Why Real Madrid might still crash out of a Champions League designed so they can’t fail

Defeat to Liverpool leaves the reigning champions in serious danger of missing the knockout stage, even though the new format was meant to prevent this from ever happening

After beating the team 20th in the Premier League, Liverpool defeated the side 24th in the Champions League. The similarities may end there: it is scarcely a surprise Southampton occupy that station in England. But Real Madrid, the reigning champions of Europe, find themselves 24th after five rounds.

The position has a certain significance in a new format; they are hovering about the second dotted line. A side who began the competition as favourites, along with Manchester City, now instead risk the embarrassment of failing even to get the safety net of a play-off place. If Real initially thought their fixture list would not include a European double-header in February, now they must hope it does. The alternative is the embarrassment of crashing out of continental competition altogether.

A revamp that appeared designed to make sure the richest were too big to fail could now eject the biggest of them all. And if a tough trip to Atalanta could mean Real spend Christmas looking imperilled, January meetings with RB Salzburg and Brest might offer the partial salvation of a play-off place; that said, Real have already lost to Italian and French opposition before going down 2-0 to Salzburg boss Pep Lijnders’s former club, Liverpool. Under the old system, Real reached the knockout stages in 29 successive seasons. But then old certainties seem to have been destroyed recently.

Are Real in danger? Carlo Ancelotti has spent a footballing lifetime excelling at appearing unflustered. He did so again on Wednesday evening. “This game today wasn’t decisive in terms of our league position,” he said after defeat at Anfield. “It was always going to be tough to finish in the top eight. We have to make sure we are in the next 24, as high up as possible. We're going to make it to the top 24 and compete like last year.”

That sounded like a guarantee. Real’s status as the European superpower stems in part from a mastery of brinkmanship. They can spend much of knockout ties trailing and then salvage qualification at the last. They may require such skills again.

Their next Champions League game against Atalanta is a rematch of August’s Super Cup win but comes with Real at a couple of disadvantages. One is in the Italian side’s continental form: conceding a solitary goal, fifth in the standings. The other is if Vinicius Junior’s hamstring injury keeps him out again. Real are a star-studded team but the evidence from Anfield is that they are a much lesser side without the Brazilian.

Jude Bellingham and Real Madrid were left bereft after defeat to Liverpool (Action Images/Reuters)

The absence of Vinicius Junior with a hamstring injury was costly for Real (Getty)

Which is partly because of the travails of Kylian Mbappe. Years at Paris Saint-Germain acquainted him with Champions League disappointment. Mbappe got more with a missed penalty on Merseyside. It leaves him with a single goal in his last six games. His dream move to Real is scarcely going as planned.

“Maybe he lacks a bit of confidence and if you have a moment when things don’t work out sometimes you have to play simple and not overcomplicate things,” said Ancelotti. “The remedy is to be patient. Everyone has to support him because it will come off soon.”

Mbappe’s crisis of confidence is a psychological issue. There are tactical problems, too, amid a struggle for balance after Toni Kroos retired and Mbappe arrived, as players swapped positions to compensate for injuries. Shifted back into midfield, Jude Bellingham has only scored twice this season. He was overshadowed by Alexis Mac Allister at Anfield. Fede Valverde, who may be Real’s most indispensable midfielder now, is instead playing at right-back. A game that both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal missed indicated that Liverpool can cope with the loss of an injured right-back better, given Conor Bradley’s barnstorming display.

Real look too short of defenders. It is increasingly apparent that they should have bought a centre-back in the summer. Instead, the rookie Raul Asencio was parachuted in for just his third appearance against Liverpool. While Aurelien Tchouameni could return at the weekend, a defensive midfielder may have to be pressed into service in defence. Meanwhile, Eduardo Camavinga could be the latest addition to Real’s injury list.

Kylian Mbappe has struggled badly since his high-profile move from PSG to Madrid (Getty)

Ancelotti can be a master of adaptability: he reacted brilliantly to Karim Benzema’s sudden departure in 2023. Now he has to find a formula again. “I don’t think it is that different to last season, we had similar problems last year,” he said. “We managed to find a way out of it and will do again.”

However, one difference is that Real completed last season unbeaten in Europe; this year, they have already been beaten by Lille, AC Milan and now Liverpool. If Ancelotti has been an expert in escapology before, taking a side who were a goal down with three minutes of the Champions League semi-final to win the tournament in the summer, he must now plot another path out of a tricky situation.

But in the past, the group stages tended to be the routine part for Real. They used to save the drama for the knockout stages. Now they face a battle to simply ensure they are in them.