Speed says forward march as history stalks the Toon

Thomas Horster looked not so much like a coach, more like a bus that had just had its tyres deflated, its windows smashed and its fuel tank syphoned.

Invited to pass comment on Alan Shearer's hat-trick performance at St James' Park on Wednesday night, the man who has taken the wheel of Bayer Leverkusen's Champions' League charabanc glared askance at his questioner. "Against such a defence, anyone can look good," he replied. "There was no defensive posture... There was no defence."

The locals smirked, but it is no longer a laughing matter for the Geordies. Having flayed the new whipping boys of Europe 3-1 home and away, Newcastle United can expect little help from Horster's hapless side when Internazionale visit the BayArena on 19 March, the concluding night of second phase Group A matches.

That being the likely case, the Magpies will have to beat Inter in the San Siro on Tuesday week – and then beat Barcelona at home eight days later – if they are to spread their wings to the quarter-final stage of Europe's prestige competition. Gary Speed put it as succinctly as the midfield tidying he had once again performed with admirably neat distinction. "It's win or bust," he said. "We've got to win in Milan. If we lose we're out."

Only one English club has ever beaten Inter in Milan and you have to go back to 19 April 1961 to trace the historical success. Messrs Speed and Shearer were a long way from being even twinkles in the eyes of their parents and Bobby Robson was a 28-year-old right-half with West Bromwich Albion. Managed by Gil Merrick and inspired by Jimmy Bloomfield, Birmingham City beat Inter 2-1 in a quarter-full San Siro in the first-leg of a Fairs Cup semi-final. Jimmy Harris scored the first goal. Harris bagged both goals in a 2-1 win in the return leg at St Andrews. City lost to Roma in the final.

Of the nine other European ties Inter have contested on home soil against English opposition, they have won six and drawn three. Newcastle drew 1-1 against them in the first round of the Fairs Cup in 1970, leading with a Wyn Davies header until the final minute. Manchester United achieved the same scoreline in the quarter-finals of the Champions' League in 1999. The last English visitors were Ipswich Town in the third round of the Uefa Cup last season. The Tractor Boys, leading 1-0 from the home leg, were flattened 4-1. Christian Vieri plundered a hat-trick and while the £32m man has not scored since then in European competition the sight of Titus Bramble lining up against him will doubtless provide encouragement. Bramble was given a torrid time as his nominal marker that night.

Inter did lose 2-1 at home to Lyon in the first group stage but they have been beaten just once in 11 Serie A fixtures in the San Siro this season, 2-1 against Udinese in November. Their goalless draw against Barcelona ended the Catalan club's record run of 11 victories in the Champions' League.

On the plus side for Newcastle, though, their form since Christmas has got the Italian league leaders worried. "It will be harder for us against Newcastle than it was tonight," Hector Cuper, their Argentine coach, said in the aftermath of the Barcelona game. "Recoba will be suspended and Kallon and Dalmat will both be out injured." It will not harm Newcastle's cause that, besides Alvaro Recoba, Mohamed Kallon and Stéphane Dalmat, Inter will be without a trio of forwards in the ineligible Gabriel Batistuta, and Hernan Crespo and Nicola Ventola, who are injured.

Newcastle themselves paid dearly for being without Craig Bellamy for 85 minutes of their home match against Inter in November. Shearer's feisty partner has served his three-match suspension, though, and his return will cast as many Italian minds back to the winning goal he scored against the Azzurri at the Millennium Stadium in October as to the night he saw red in Newcastle's 4-1 defeat against Inter at St James' Park.

It was Speed who led Wales to that famous 2-1 victory and at 33 the veteran Magpie has struck as vintage a vein of form as Shearer, his 32-year-old slip of a club captain. "We've got to win in the San Siro," the midfield lynchpin said, "so there's no point going there to defend. We're at our best going forward anyway and hopefully we'll do that against Inter. Although they beat us here 4-1 I thought we played quite well against them with 10 men. Hopefully this time we can keep 11 on the pitch and give them a scare."

The kind of scare that Manchester United gave Juventus in Turin on Tuesday night – or indeed that Arsenal gave Roma in Rome in November – would do very nicely for Newcastle. "Yeah, Manchester United were fantastic," Speed acknowledged. "To go to a club like Juventus and get a 3-0 win is brilliant. I think we've got to look at their second-half performance against Juve and look at ours against Leverkusen. They really turned the screw in the second-half and we didn't." Still, at least Newcastle's United have achieved one feat that proved beyond Manchester's in the Champions' League this season. Sir Bobby's boys won in Leverkusen and did the double over the fallen finalists of last season.