Premier League title race: Why flying Leicester can win timeless title race and beat Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City

With a third of a mesmerising season to go the League crown appears to be between the top four who meet this afternoon in two potentially pivotal games

Riyad Mahrez in action for Leicester (Getty Images)

You can take your pick from a mass of statistics that could signal where the Premier League trophy will end up in May, and here is one: Leicester City have not lost consecutive Premier League matches for over a year.

If, as is being said in the past few days, it is now Leicester’s title to lose, the chasers require Claudio Ranieri’s team to slip, and more than once.

This demands optimism from the chasers, though, because, handily, Leicester have played 38 League games – a full season – since losing to Crystal Palace and Arsenal in the space of four days early last February and they have lost just five. And never two in a row.

When others have expected them to slide, Leicester have been sure-footed. This is no burst of form: over a sustained period Leicester have demonstrated various qualities, one of which is the power of recovery.

Hence even if, as the bookmakers expect, Leicester, five points clear at the top, lose at Arsenal today, three of the Foxes’ next four games are at home – to Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle United. Leicester have already beaten those three teams away this season.

Anyway, the bookmakers are guessing. They make Leicester 4-1 to win today in north London, where Arsenal drew 0-0 with Southampton last time out. Then again, Leicester were 5-1 to win last Saturday at Manchester City.

Those odds ignored, and ignore, the rather salient fact that Leicester have the best away record in the league. Riyad Mahrez and Co supplied more evidence of that in their sturdy, creative and most convincing 3-1 victory at the Etihad.

Now, on a beguiling Sunday, a worried City host a confident Tottenham side being tipped for the title – tipping which overlooks the Foxes’ 1-0 win at White Hart Lane just a month ago.

It’s been that kind of season and there is still one third of it remaining. While making predictions is hazardous, what can be said with certainty is that there will be more drama. This is an attempt to dissect the third and final act.

Squad strength/injuries

Of the four contenders, superficially Leicester’s squad looks the weakest in terms of numbers and quality. Yet Ranieri felt sufficiently assured in January to let the club’s record signing, Andrej Kramaric, leave for Hoffenheim on loan. He cost £9.5m last January and had barely figured.

Fortunate – or well-prepared – when it comes to injuries, Leicester have relied on a core of 12 players. That dozen have started more than half of their League games.

Consistency of selection is a factor in Spurs’ fluency too. One question is whether Leicester could cope with losing Mahrez and Jamie Vardy, but the same question could apply to Spurs regarding Dele Alli and Harry Kane, Arsenal with Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Özil and City with Sergio Aguero and Yaya Touré.

City have had to deal all season with Vincent Kompany’s injury and Eliaquim Mangala has not played for five weeks. Samir Nasri has been missing since October, Wilfried Bony has started only nine League games and now Kevin De Bruyne is out until April. Of most concern for City today is that David Silva is a doubt.

When Silva limped off against Leicester last Saturday, he was replaced by 19 year-old Bersant Celina, one of four teenagers on the City bench in the last three matches.

Arsenal have also had a list of injuries, from Jack Wilshere to Danny Welbeck to Theo Walcott. A big squad has kept Arsenal in contention but for Leicester the issue is theoretical until a series of injuries occur. And they might not.

Team spirit

All managers and players talk about this and Arsène Wenger says you cannot win anything without it. He compares nourishing spirit to watering a flower. One of the quotes of the season is Chelsea’s “palpable discord” and it affected the champions’ form under Jose Mourinho. At Leicester there is palpable unity.

“We love our job and it’s important that we show our love on the pitch,” said Ranieri in November. And after victory at City, he added: “In all my career I don’t think I have known a team as strong at being together.”

Looking from afar, Frank Lampard says: “There’s an extra togetherness about them [Leicester].”

We do not get that same sense from Manchester City. Last season Manuel Pellegrini had to deny there was a problem.

Another hailing its presence and effect is Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino. During the Rugby World Cup, Pochettino said: “Today we tried to play like a team. We love the way that in the Rugby World Cup they play like a team. I watched a lot of games live, and the mentality and the philosophy and spirit: that’s what we need to translate into football.”

Kyle Walker, at Spurs since 2009, says there has never been a better spirit at the club: “There’s no one saying they’re bigger than anyone else and that’s vital.”

Managers

Ranieri has gone from Tinkerman to Thinkerman and, given his demeanour, it could be Twinkleman. He could win Manager of the Season and Sports Personality of the Year.

There is a debt to his predeccesor, Nigel Pearson, but continuity of personnel, tactics and attitude has been a Ranieri feature. As has his smile. Only if Leicester collapse will Ranieri’s season be reappraised.

His three rivals, however, have reached the stage of the season when pudding and proof enter the vocabulary. Even Pochettino could come under scrutiny. For all the praise sent his way, Spurs are one point better off than at the same stage two years ago, when Tim Sherwood had just replaced Andre Villas-Boas.

For all the love and longevity, Wenger’s status at Arsenal is also dependent to some extent on how this season unfolds. Arsenal have not finished in the top two in the Premier League for 10 seasons. The implosion at Chelsea as well as Manchester United’s mediocrity means this season is an unprecedented chance for Arsenal to win the title again. Fail to do so and Wenger will be judged by a fanbase fractured when it comes to his continued presence at the club. As for Pellegrini, he is already in the shadow of Pep Guardiola and will surely focus on the Champions League.

The X factor – pressure

In a way Manchester City’s players should be the most relaxed. They are the only squad to have won over the course and distance. But how will the Pellegrini/Guardiola news affect them? While Arsenal have experienced players, they have not won the title since 2004 and there is an expectation that this should be their year. Tottenham have not finished in the top two since 1963 and there is less pressure on them – unless they hit the front.

This is where Leicester are and this is the unknown factor: how they lead and cope with a setback.

“There shall come a moment when they have to win,” Louis van Gaal said this week of Leicester’s players. “At the moment everything is OK and nice. But the manager has spoken about being champions, so now it shall play in their heads.”

Momentum and fatigue

There are 13 games to go. From their last 13 Leicester took 28 points. For Tottenham it’s 27 from 13; Arsenal 23 and City 21.

These are Leicester’s only games. Their season will be a maximum of 43 games long.

For the others, it’s different. Manchster City have already played 38 games and have a minimum of 17 left, including the League Cup final at Wembley against Liverpool – three days before they go to Anfield in the League. Defeat Dynamo Kiev in the next round of the Champions League and City will have even more games to play before the season’s end.

Tottenham have played 35 and have a minimum of 16 left, more should they progress in the Europa League and FA Cup. Arsenal have played 35 and also have a minimum of 16 left. They face Barcelona in the Champions League and are still aiming to retain the FA Cup.

Conclusion

For argument’s sake, if Leicester take 22 points from their last 13 games – and there is every reason to think they can – then they would reach 75 points.

That looks a feasible target for the three others, but they need to go on a winning run. Arsenal have still to play their three rivals, beginning today, and can shape the title. They go to White Hart Lane on 5 March, a day when Manchester City are at home to Aston Villa and Leicester have a tricky trip to Watford.

Arsenal also have to travel to Manchester City on the season’s penultimate weekend for Pellegrini’s last home game. These are the sort of influences we simply cannot calculate, as are refereeing decisions.

Disbelief has been the Premier League season’s hallmark, but with six of the bottom nine to face in their next 10 matches, Leicester can, week by week, turn that into belief.

Yes, they can.

Kick-off 12pm, Sky Sports 1