Premier League title race: Who has the best fixtures in the run-in - Man City or Liverpool?

As the title race heads into the home straight, who has the most favourable run-in?

With only four rounds of fixtures remaining and just two points separating the champions and the challengers, the finest Premier League title race of recent years is not far from being decided.

Manchester City hope to defend their crown and will do so if they win their remaining five games, but Liverpool lead the way on 85 points, having played once more than their rivals

Both sides are likely to achieve points totals which would be enough to win the league in all but a handful of post-1995 (i.e. 38-game) seasons.

Whichever one of Jürgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola finishes in second place is almost certain to have managed the Premier League’s best-ever runners-up.

And whether City defend their crown or Liverpool end their 29-year wait for a domestic title will depend, in part, on how their respective run-ins.

By calculating the average points-per-game home and away of each Premier League club this season, we can weigh up the difficulty of their respective run-ins.

Then, we can see where the title may be won and lost over coming weeks.

The run-ins

Liverpool

Current position: 1st​​

Points: 85

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.00

Like City, Liverpool are still competing in the Champions League, though the sense around Anfield is that a first domestic league title in 29 years is very much the priority.

Remaining fixtures

26/04 Huddersfield (H)

05/05 Newcastle (A)

12/05 Wolves (H)

That was certainly the vibe last weekend, when the ghosts of 2014 were exorcised with a critical 2-0 victory over Chelsea - the side who benefited from Steven Gerrard's slip five years ago.

A 2-0 win at Cardiff followed while anything other than a comfortable victory over already-relegated Huddersfield at Anfield will be classed as a severe disappointment.

St James’ Park, however, is a very different proposition. Newcastle have won five of their seven home games since the turn of the year, including a memorable victory over City in late January.

Wolves, meanwhile, have famously taken points off every member of the so-called ‘top-six’ bar one: Liverpool. They travel to Anfield on the final day and no longer have to worry about resting players for an FA Cup final.

Manchester City

Current position: 2nd

Points: 83

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.65

City’s run-in has undoubtedly been the more difficult one, having already faced Tottenham with Manchester United still to come.

Remaining fixtures

24/04 Manchester United (A)

28/04 Burnley (A)

04/05 Leicester (H)

12/05 Brighton (A)

City must then travel to Burnley (1.35 points-per-game at home) and relegation-threatened Brighton (1.38) on the final day, though the Seagulls could well be safe by the time the champions roll into town.

The visit of Brendan Rodgers to the Etihad will evoke memories of the last time City and Liverpool battled for the title in 2014. Leicester have beaten the champions already this year.

But the decisive game is likely to be at Old Trafford on 24 April, the first Manchester derby between Guardiola and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and City’s game-in-hand over Liverpool.

United will need the points as they push for a top-four place. Whether they can pick themselves up after a run of recent poor form is another matter.