Familiarity and flaws provide perfect recipe for a chaotic Manchester derby

Every meeting between the two sides this season has defied convention and flipped the finger to predications

(Getty)

Familiarity can often make for flat viewing, rendering even the most intriguing of hostilities an anti-climax. Pep Guardiola and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are not prepping for such an eventuality at Old Trafford on Sunday despite Manchester City and Manchester United already being quite intimate with each other’s flaws and force this season.

There was the reverse Premier League meeting at the Etihad in early December, where the visitors shockingly shredded the hosts in transition during a 2-1 victory. January was then bookended by their two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final, where City secured a slick 3-1 advantage on enemy territory before United registered a personally symbolic rather than significant 2-1 win.

Every result and performance has defied convention and flipped the finger to predications at the time. This fixture should ordinarily now feel tired; too much of it, too little to be exhilarated by – yet it is the opposite. The rivals collide at the juncture of optimum form: United have been ignited by the arrival of Bruno Fernandes, regaining swagger during a nine-match unbeaten streak, while City outwitted Real Madrid at the Bernabeu before lifting their third League Cup trophy on the spin.

“They’re getting better,” Guardiola said of Sunday’s opponents. “Right now is maybe their best moment of the season.

“Always I believe that managers and the clubs need time to build something they believe in. Unfortunately, the results sometimes take the decision to break that process. I am not there, I am not part of United, but what I feel is that people believe in Ole and I think he is doing a really good job. It is not about the tactics sometimes, it is about the feeling – how the players follow the manager.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Pep Guardiola react during the Carabao Cup semi-final (Getty)

“He arrived with an incredible impact in terms of results, then after there was a drop a little bit, but in both sides they were stable.

“The comments are stable from the board, what I read, and I think his behaviour here in the press conferences was always quite similar. Now the results are getting back. They are scoring a lot of goals, they create chances, they concede few.”

Solskjaer’s rearguard has morphed from slapstick to steely, conceding just twice during this positive sequence. That is largely, as Guardiola noted, because they have been “incredibly aggressive.”

The City manager has been studying United, particularly the influence of Fernandes, which offers him a fresh tactical challenge. The playmaker is effectively a one-man system, sketching his side’s offensive play with his desire to be decisive in the final third, be that through dribbles, key passes, shots from distance or deadball situations.

Since making his bow, the Portugal international has led his team’s assault in terms of assists (two), chances created (seven) and efforts at goal (10).

He is unpredictable and so are United. “I’m sure we have an element of surprise, that’s not an issue,” Solskjaer offered in his preview and Guardiola is banking on that. “He uses three or four different types of systems,” the City manager noted, referencing United’s employment of a three-man defence in the last derby, the 4-2-3-1 they extracted joy with at the Etihad in December and the diamond formation experimented with away to Everton.

Marcus Rashford, missing through a back injury, has been a cause for disconcertion for City’s markers in the past. Guardiola is not thankful for his absence, nor does he feel Solskjaer’s selection will be severely hampered without him.

“I have always said since the first day I became a manager that I like to play against a full squad from my opponents,” he reminded. “I would have loved to play against [Eden] Hazard at the Bernabeu. I don’t like to see Rashford out or [Harry] Kane when we played against Tottenham.

“I prefer to play against top players and hopefully he can recover as quickly as possible. I would have preferred if he had played for them. But at the moment I think about United and which players are available to play against us and after that I am not concerned any more. I don’t think – not even for a half-second – that he is not there. I think about [Anthony] Martial, [Daniel] James, Fernandes and [Odion] Ighalo – if he plays.

“We will have to settle and understand what to do against the quality they have, the way they play and try to go there and put in a good performance.”

Raheem Sterling hasn’t scored in 19 games against Manchester United (Getty)

While Sergio Aguero is closing in on Wayne Rooney’s derby scoring record of 11 goals, currently two shy, a pair of Guardiola’s other attacking weapons have never managed to successfully breach United’s defence. Raheem Sterling has failed to do so in 19 games across all competitions, while Gabriel Jesus is not off the mark yet from seven.

The former has admitted “in the last two years I have known the record and have started to think about it too much. I know I am going to get a moment” and Guardiola co-signed that theory, adding the England international is “getting closer.”

The City boss, while accepting he “never expected to have this distance over United in recent seasons,” conceded that the 15 points currently separating them in the league will be moot after kick-off with United chasing a Champions League spot.

“Always it’s so nice, one of the nicest ones, I love it – it is always special,” Guardiola said of the challenge of lining up against such storied neighbours. “The situation is a bit different. We look to improve, to finish second and not win the title. For them, it is more important in qualifying for the Champions League.”

It is why neither Guardiola nor Solskjaer imagines the derby will equate to an anti-climax, with each having designs to tactically jolt the other.