Liverpool vs Arsenal: Winning this title could take something special, but this looks like a special team
No team has led by six points or more at the turn of the year and relinquished that lead as Jurgen Klopp's surging side set their sights on history
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Jurgen Klopp simply would not entertain the idea that Liverpool's double-digit lead over Manchester City will still exist by the time the two sides meet at the Etihad on Thursday night.
It did not matter if Pep Guardiola thought City's two-game losing streak could go on. "When you lose two, you can lose three, and four, and five," Guardiola had told journalists on Saturday. Klopp, speaking later that same day after his side's 5-1 win over Arsenal, could not countenance that.
"Tomorrow [the gap] will be seven," he insisted, effectively ruling out a surprise Southampton win against City at St Mary's today. "And when we play against Man City, it could be four. It's possible."
Klopp is right to be cautious. It could all change quickly. If City win both they will still be behind his league leaders, of course, but the complexion and momentum of this year's title race will have shifted once more, and the cigarette pack arithmetic scribbled down around Anfield on Saturday night will require revision.
Yes, Liverpool are currently projected to pick up 103 points. Yes, no team has needed more than 90 to win the title before. No team has led by six points or more at the turn of the year and relinquished that lead, either.
But Klopp understands that the competitive level at the top of the Premier League is higher than ever. He knows Liverpool's problem may be that this is no standard season.
Despite their slump, City are still on course for 88 points, enough to top the pile in every 38-game season to date bar one. Their 19-game record is better than that of 14 previous champions, including eight of Sir Alex Ferguson's title-winning sides. If they are to finish as runners-up, it could well be as the best-ever.
Beyond them, there is Tottenham. Even after their defeat to Wolves on Saturday, Spurs have a better 20-game record than Manuel Pellegrini's 2013-14 City side, who crushed the last Liverpool team that came close to winning the title. They are better, too, than the 2009-09 Manchester United that edged past Rafael Benitez's best Anfield team.
Quirks of the fixture computer could yet play a part. City welcome their all four of their closest rivals - Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal - to the Etihad in the second half of the campaign.
Meanwhile, due to their ongoing stadium issues, Tottenham play a home game more than any other top-flight club between now and May. It is a small competitive imbalance but one that could make a telling difference.
And then there is the fact that the recent surprise defeats themselves - City's to Crystal Palace and Leicester, Tottenham's to Wolves - were not in-keeping with the season up to now and perhaps just products of a busy Christmas period rather than evidence of deeper malaise.
The story of the campaign prior to the last few weeks was one of the 'top six' routinely handing out beatings to the 'bottom fourteen'. Did that dynamic suddenly change? Probably not. We can expect normal service to resume once the fixture congestion eases, meaning there will be little margin for error down the stretch.
There are, therefore, plenty of stray banana skins to negotiate and reasons to remain composed. But equally, even if this is not your ordinary Premier League season, this is also not an ordinary Liverpool.
It is not the 2008-09 side, who by this stage had dropped points at home to Stoke, Fulham, West Ham and Hull with only two goals scored in the process. Nor is this the 2013-14 edition, a team that captured the imagination but conceded only one goal fewer than Hull did when relegated a year later.
Instead, this is a Liverpool that has only dropped six points in total, and even then only to their immediate rivals, and even then they still remain undefeated. This is also a Liverpool that has the same 20-game defensive record as Jose Mourinho's 2004-05 Chelsea, who hold the Premier League record for fewest goals conceded in a single season.
And while their main competition is a side that shattered records on their way to last season's crown, what does that itself say about the team that leads them? What does it say that, despite not appearing at their best for several months, Liverpool have clung on and then outperformed a historic City side over the course of half a season?
From the outset this year, it was clear it might take something special - something extra special, perhaps - to dethrone the defending champions. Liverpool could well be that something, but they have another 18 games to prove it, starting at the Etihad on Thursday night.
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