If Newcastle United drop they will struggle to bounce back - Danny Higginbotham

INSIDE FOOTBALL: And why Rafa Benitez's side look destined to go down

Was Andros Townsend really what Newcastle needed? (2016 Getty Images)

The big game on Saturday is between Norwich City and Sunderland, but if Newcastle United fail to beat Swansea City afterwards it is difficult to see how they will get enough points to stay up. And if they are relegated I fear it will be long way back for a team which has been mismanaged from top to bottom.

As we have discussed here before, there are a few common factors between all teams that are successful at any level of the game: continuity, unity and identity. Those traits are as important to Atletico Madrid or Leicester City as they are to a team trying to stay up. And those are the things that Newcastle United are so desperately missing.

It is very clear now that last summer Newcastle appointed the wrong manager in Steve McClaren and bought the wrong players. In January they still had the chance to redress that, but went about it in the wrong way.

Newcastle decided that they could score their way to safety. That approach does not always work, though. Just look at Charlie Austin’s 18 Premier League goals for Queen's Park Rangers last season, and they still finished rock bottom. Newcastle’s better summer signings – Aleksandar Mitrovic and Georginio Wijnaldum – are attacking players, not defenders.

What Newcastle needed in January, then, were defensive reinforcements. Norwich City had the right idea and signed centre-back Timm Klose. So did Sunderland, who bought Jan Kirchhoff and Lamina Kone. But Newcastle broke the bank to buy Jonjo Shelvey, Andros Townsend, and Henri Saivet, with Seydou Doumbia joining on loan.

Those are good players, but they are the wrong players for what Newcastle needed. The squad became even more unbalanced, full of players only willing to run forward and reluctant to track back. Since the start of February Sunderland have conceded 10 goals, Norwich 11, and Newcastle 20.

Of course, Rafa Benitez has also come in to replace McClaren. But he joined too late to sign any of his own players and probably too late to stop the rot. He has been left without the basic materials to fight a relegation battle, materials that Sunderland and Norwich now have.

In that regard this Newcastle team reminds me of the Southampton side that I was relegated with back in 2004-05. Of course, as a player in that team I take full responsibility for our relegation, as I do as a member of the Derby County team that went down in 2001-02. We were the ones on the pitch.

But that Southampton side had been badly run, with too many managers changed, too many players coming in, especially on loan. We were not strong enough, we wanted to play too open, and it cost us. Many of us were brought to the club by Gordon Strachan, who was a phenomenal manager, and got the best out of us, so we were disappointed when he left. That, looking back, was the beginning of the end for Premier League football for Southampton.

Paul Sturrock came in and signed a few players but he left early into the season. Then Steve Wigley, who was a magnificent coach, came in but found it difficult go from that job to being a manager. Then, in December, Harry Redknapp joined and in January he brought his players in on loans and short-term deals.

Every manager has his own ideas about how he wants the game to be played, and is entitled to bring his own men in. But that constant turnover is so unsettling for the squad. Managers love to say that every player has a ‘clean slate’ when he comes in, but in reality it does not work like that.

And when you bring players in on loan, it simply does not mean as much to them, as they are not likely to be at the same club next season. It becomes tough to preserve unity in the squad and quite naturally cliques develop, of players close to one manager or another.

The situation at Newcastle will be similar. If they go down then Benitez is unlikely to still be there next season, and I can guarantee that that will be in the players’ minds. If they go down, and a new manager comes in, then they would not need to impress Benitez so much now. But if there is continuity, and the manager stays, then he will still have your future in his hands.

So it was not a happy Southampton squad that started out in the Championship in 2005-06 and soon enough Redknapp left and was replaced by George Burley. We finished 12th and three years later the club was in League One. It was not until 2012, seven years after relegation, that Saints returned to the top flight. Which shows just how difficult life can be for relegated sides who have lost their unity and cohesion.

Some teams do come quickly back into the Premier League but those are sides like Norwich City last season, or seemingly Burnley this year, who stuck together after relegation.

What you need is everything I described at the top of the column – continuity, unity and identity – and plenty of invaluable Championship experience. That is why I think that if Sunderland or Norwich City are relegated, they should still be competitive next season. Sam Allardyce got West Ham promoted in 2012. Alex Neil got this very Norwich team promoted in 2015. They could very well do what Burnley have done. Newcastle, though, have lost almost all of the experience of their promotion season back in 2009-10.

Thinking back to Derby County, and our first Championship game in 2002-03, which we won 3-0 at home against Reading. We went out afterwards naively thinking we were going to walk the league. Three days later we lost 1-0 at Tony Pulis’ Gillingham. “Oh dear”, we realised, “this is going to be tough.” We finished 18th.

Norwich or Sunderland, then, could do well in the Championship if they go down. But compare those two with Newcastle United, who have less Championship know-how on the pitch and in the dug-out. They have an unbalanced squad, short of leadership, experience and defensive stability. It took my old Southampton side seven years to get back into the Premier League. Newcastle could find it just as hard.

It's daft that Lukaku and Coutinho are on Young Player shortlist

I was surprised to see the PFA Young Player of the Year nominations including Philippe Coutinho and Romelu Lukaku. Those are two excellent players who have had excellent seasons for their clubs but why they are nominated for a young player award I do not know. Coutinho is 23 years old, enjoying his fourth Premier League season and before he played for Inter and Espanyol. He is not inexperienced. Lukaku is 22 but is also completing his fourth season as a Premier League regular. He has almost 150 Premier League appearances already.

I believe that the upper age limit for the award should be 20 or 21, to make sure we are picking players still enjoying their first taste of Premier League football. Players like Anthony Martial should be on the shortlist, but for me the winner would still be Dele Alli.