Arsene knows (or maybe he doesn't)

He is revered for his footballing instincts, but many were surprised when Arsène Wenger refused to splash out in the summer. Three months later his young side look increasingly fragile – making today's game against Manchester United a crucial test for the whole club.

(GETTY IMAGES)

Sometimes it can seem like Arsène Wenger is in denial. Denial as in the Freudian defence mechanism, as in the kind of denial that George W Bush was famously accused of being in over Iraq by Nick Robinson on the BBC. In Wenger's case it is a denial that what everyone else can see about Arsenal – not enough strength in depth, too young, lacking a tough midfielder and another centre-back – is just plain wrong.

In the presence of the man himself – so cogent, so smart, so damned reasonable – you can begin to wonder whether it is actually you who is seeing things the wrong way around, or completely missing the point or failing to recognise the emergence of the greatest football team of all time. Perhaps Denilson will turn into Patrick Vieira by Christmas. Perhaps, after Arsenal tear Manchester United to shreds this lunchtime, Sir Alex Ferguson will leave the Emirates cursing the day he let Mikaël Silvestre leave. Perhaps Theo Walcott will be the player of the season.

The truth is that there are very few believers left in Wenger's creed, to the extent that his faith in this young team is starting to look more like a wacky cult. A wacky cult with Wenger as its credible, enigmatic leader and more and more followers gradually slipping out the back door. Nevertheless, every time you doubt Wenger, his sheer plausibility and his unparalleled track record of turning water into very fine wine stops you in your tracks. Then you remember that Emmanuel Adebayor, Emmanuel Eboué and Robin van Persie will all be missing against United today. The one piece of good news is that Walcott starts today. But William Gallas is still not fit. Alex Hleb and Mathieu Flamini are long gone. Arsenal are in decline. So who does he think he is kidding?

Wenger was asked yesterday whether he was, indeed, in denial over the state of his Arsenal team and he made the very sound point that last season his club finished just four points behind the champions United, who only sealed the title in the last game of the season. "Four points after 38 games with what we have gone through from March to May," he said. "I don't think we can come to a conclusion that there is a massive difference."

He went on: "Everyone was critical but we were unlucky to be knocked out of the Champions League and we were unlucky in the Premier League. It was a good season, if not a satisfying season, because we want to win the league. I didn't come to the conclusion that there was a world between United and Arsenal."

Very plausible – although you have to remember that in the two seasons previous to that when United won the league in 2007 and Chelsea in 2006, Arsenal were 21 points and 24 points respectively behind the champions. The dramatic closing of that

gap last season seems to be the key justification in Wenger's mind for persevering with a very talented, albeit depleted, group of young players, in spite of the weaknesses that are self-evident for everyone else watching his team. In an interview earlier this season with The Independent he described his approach as an "interesting experiment" although experimentation is not exactly what Arsenal fans had in mind after four seasons without the Premier League title.

Yesterday, Wenger was as evangelical as ever about his young players, indefatigable and upbeat about the prospect of playing United. In fact, he was nothing like a manager whose team has lost already this season to Fulham, Hull and Stoke. "I would not exchange my position with any other manager because I believe in our qualities," he said.

There was plenty of other cheerful stuff besides that, including the bold challenge: "Let's speak about it in May." His side are, after all, fourth in the Premier League, six points off the leaders Chelsea and top of their Champions League qualification group. But how has Wenger got to this point? A point at which United and Chelsea, and even Liverpool to a lesser extent, have assembled super-squads, where the likes of Carlos Tevez and Nicolas Anelka have to be left on the bench and placated. By contrast, Wenger will have little option but to place his faith in Nicklas Bendtner this lunchtime, the Denmark international with just six Premier League goals and 11 league starts for Arsenal. Transfer funds are not an issue, according to Danny Fiszman, the club's second-largest shareholder and boardroom strongman, so has Wenger's "experiment" got out of control?

The belief among some close to the Arsenal manager is that Wenger has become obsessed with the notion of clubs, like Chelsea and United, being run despite enormous debts. That it is immoral and in defiance of the basic rules of fair competition. There has been talk about a legal challenge, in fact the Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy – an unlikely ally – hinted as much last week. But while Spurs shrug their shoulders and plough money in to survive, Wenger, the Strasbourg University economics graduate, has his eye on a purer, more idealistic riposte to those clubs who have built their futures on mountains of debt.

That is why he is so serene – he is a man who is completely at ease with the path he is taking. Asked yesterday whether there was anyone to whom he turned for advice when life became difficult, Wenger said that he did not need anyone else. "No, I rely on my experience," he said. "I know what is important for the team to do. I stick to what I believe is right. I am quite relaxed about that. In any career you have moments that go well and moments that go less well. You are not God when everyone says you are and you are not miserable when everyone says you are. The truth is somewhere in between."

The faith he has in his young players is unshakeable, in fact it is quite touching at times. "When you go for a team with young players, you have to be strong," he said. "It is easier to go out and say 'OK, we buy him, him and him', but you have to be strong."

The values are right, the sense of perspective is admirable, Wenger's key problem is his players are not doing it. For years, Arsenal v United was the marque game of the Premier League season. Two managers who despised each other, two sets of players at each others' throats and Roy Keane calling it on with Vieira in the tunnel. Marvellous stuff. Whatever the result today, the prospect of the game being the biggest clash in the land has gone. Regardless of the principles that got Wenger there, that is the real sadness about where Arsenal find themselves today.

The Wenger credo

In an exclusive interview with The Independent in August the Arsenal manager gave the most detailed explanation as to why he resists big money buys in order to develop young talent:

'When we decided to build the stadium I wanted to anticipate the possibility of financial restrictions, so I concentrated on youth. I also felt the best way to create an identity with the way we play football, to get players integrated in our culture, with our beliefs... was to get them as young as possible to develop them together. I felt it would be an interesting experiment... It was an idealistic vision of the world of football.'

Losing their way under the Frenchman?

Arsenal have suffered three league defeats by 1 November this season. Past experience shows they have never won the title from such a position

1996/97

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1 (under Rioch)

Overall defeats: 8 (1 under Rioch)

Beaten by promoted teams: 1

Final position: 3rd

1997/98

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 6

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 1st

1998/99

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 4

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 2nd

1999/2000

League defeats by 1 Nov: 3

Overall defeats: 9

Beaten by promoted teams: 1

Final position: 2nd

2000/01

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 8

Beaten by promoted teams: 1

Final position: 2nd

2001/02

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 3

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 1st

2002/03

League defeats by 1 Nov: 2

Overall defeats: 6

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 2nd

2003/04

League defeats by 1 Nov: 0

Overall defeats: 0

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 1st

2004/05

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 5

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 2nd

2005/06

League defeats by 1 Nov: 3

Overall defeats: 11

Beaten by promoted teams: 1

Final position: 4th

2006/07

League defeats by 1 Nov: 1

Overall defeats: 8

Beaten by promoted teams: 1

Final position: 4th

2007/08

League defeats by 1 Nov: 0

Overall defeats: 3

Beaten by promoted teams: 0

Final position: 3rd

2008/09 (so far)

League defeats by 1 Nov: 3

Overall defeats: 3

Beaten by promoted teams: 2

Current position: 4th