Premier League 2024/25 predictions: Champions, top four, relegation, best signing, top scorer and more
Ahead of the new campaign,The Independent writers pick their Premier League winners, top goalscorer, best signing and more
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Hold on to your hats once again everyone: the Premier League is back this weekend.
Manchester City, after their fourth title in a row, are aiming for a magnificent five-in-a-row - but will this be the season Arsenal finally get over the line and win a first top-flight crown in 21 years?
Liverpool will be an intriguing watch under new manager Arne Slot and a total of five clubs will take to the new season with a fresh look in the dugout, with Enzo Maresca at Chelsea, Julen Lopetegui at West Ham, Steve Cooper at Leicester City and Fabian Hurzeler at Brighton.
Maresca at Chelsea will be a fascinating watch and how will Erik ten Hag fare at Manchester United after being given a new contract? The journeys of the newly-promoted trio of Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton will be interesting, too.
Now, ahead of the opening game between Manchester United and Fulham on Friday night, our writers make their predictions for the next season:
Nothing lasts forever and the era of Manchester City is ending
With Arne Slot in charge, change is coming to Anfield but not how you’d expect
It’s time for Arsenal to deliver – and one uncomfortable question holds the key
Golden Boot contenders to beat Erling Haaland and latest odds ahead of 2024/25 Premier League season
Champions?
Miguel Delaney (Chief Football Writer): Champions: Manchester City. I am almost saying this out of rote, rather than anything else. There are multiple rational arguments I think Arsenal will finally win the title, but that has been the case with both them and Liverpool over the last half-decade, and City's immense strength has generally found a way. The grand caveat is the potential outcome of the charges... taking it as is right now, though, City should again just do that little bit more than Arsenal.
Richard Jolly (Senior Football Correspondent):Arsenal - Manchester City could either be deposed as part of the punishment when their 115 charges are heard or in a table without asterisks. If it is the latter, Arsenal's annual improvement might be enough especially if standards slip a little at City, who touched fewer heights last season than in 2022-23.
Luke Baker: Until someone proves they can stop Manchester City, you have to keep saying them. They still have quality throughout the side, Pep Guardiola goes out in style with a fifth straight title and their lawyers get an assist for helping them wriggle out of the 115 charges relatively scot-free.
Kieran Jackson: Manchester City. An unprecedented four in a row? Tick. So why not five on the spin? Pep Guardiola’s side are the unequivocal favourites once again, given their know-how at the end of the campaign has seen them pip Arsenal to the post two years running.
Karl Matchett: Manchester City. Tough to look beyond them given the major challengers haven't significantly added to their strongest line-ups or depth. If City improve even slightly on last season's (lower-than-previous) points tally then Arsenal need a historic campaign to match them. That's a tough thing to do.
Jack Rathborn: Manchester City. Their floor under Pep Guardiola is astonishing, 91 points on average over the last seven seasons leaves Arsenal with a tough ask given a probable regression in terms of last season’s near perfect run of fitness and injuries.
Who else will finish in the top four?
MD: Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United. I slightly hesitated on the third and deliberated much more on the fourth. The noises about Arne Slot’s coaching are good, with what is a fine Liverpool squad despite the lack of signings. Manchester United have made promising signings, in what could be a more settled period for Erik ten Hag with bright new staff around him. If issues from last season resurface, though, Tottenham Hotspur feel well primed.
RJ: Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United - Liverpool have had an underwhelming summer and Arne Slot faces the huge task of replacing Jurgen Klopp but they still possess plenty of quality. Manchester United look to have signed well and there is plenty of scope for improvement after last season's hideous league season, including in the injury record. If England gets a fifth Champions League spot, Newcastle would be my tip to take it.
LB: Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham - Arsenal have become consistent challengers under Mikel Arteta and they'll finish second again but the pressure will build after another trophyless season when they crash out of every other competition. Arne Slot keeps Liverpool on track enough to take third and Ange Postecoglou guides Spurs to fourth.
KJ: Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham. A Liverpool team under Arne Slot are the wildcards this season. Right now, it’s difficult to judge whether they’ll be challenging for the title or simply looking to preserve a top-four spot – but the lack of signings ahead of the opening weekend suggest the latter. As for fourth, Aston Villa will find it difficult matching their achievement again, while Man Utd and Chelsea haven’t had the most promising of pre-seasons. So, let’s go for Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham, who’ve made some intriguing signings.
KM: Liverpool, Arsenal... and then I'm leaning Tottenham, as they have really good attacking depth, but Newcastle will also be back in the hunt this year if they land Marc Guehi and another attacker. They maybe aren't as good overall as Spurs, but can be defensively more resolute and importantly have no European midweek football, which given their injury issues last year will be a huge differentiator for that squad. Spurs are 'better' but that doesn't always mean they'll finish ahead. Villa will drop off a bit with Champions League to deal with, United and Chelsea are nowhere near it right now.
JR: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea: That last pick may raise some eyebrows, but Enzo Maresca has a squad with comparable talent to any side outside the two main title contenders. A potential points deduction notwithstanding, the Blues look like they have plenty of goals and a near ludicrous amount of depth, top four should be within reach even if Nicolas Jackson continues to prove wasteful in front of goal.
Who will be relegated?
MD: Leicester City, Southampton, Everton. This is an area that has to be viewed through the prism of potential points deductions, telling us a lot about where the Premier League is. The irony is that one of the things currently enlivening it is the intensity and unpredictability of the bottom half. That is more competitive than ever. Any of 10 could get sucked in, but I have gone for Leicester, Southampton and Everton here both due to the quality and the feeling of momentum at some of them. Can Everton keep doing this?
RJ: Leicester, Southampton, Ipswich - It won't be healthy for the pyramid if, for the second successive season, the three promoted clubs go back down but Leicester could be doomed by a points deduction and Southampton's attempts to pass out from the back may come at a cost. Ipswich's swift rise poses the question if footballers who were in League One 15 months ago can survive in the Premier League. Hopefully they can.
LB: I really, really hope we don't see the three promoted sides going straight back down again but it seems worryingly likely that will happen. Brentford will struggle but have just enough to survive and Nottingham Forest will sack Nuno in December and bring in David Moyes to drag them away from the drop. So, with regret, I'll predict Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich.
KJ: Leicester, Nottingham Forest, Southampton. I was very relieved to see Kieran McKenna stay at Ipswich in the summer – it’s a bad look for the game when promoted clubs can’t give the top-flight a go with the manager who got them in that position in charge. The optimist in me says they will just stay up, with Leicester (who lost Enzo Maresca to Chelsea) and Southampton going back down. Forest have cut it close in the last two years and may find it tough going again this year.
KM: Ipswich and Southampton have really bolstered their squad for the future, but not in immediate Premier League terms. As it stands, they will go back down. For the last spot, I'm currently wavering between Fulham, who haven't definitely improved the team - Emile Smith Rowe has barely played for two years - and have lost key parts of their spine, and Brentford, whose transfer business for the past two years has not paid dividends and who are looking increasingly stale unless Igor Thiago proves an immediate and enormous hit. If Leicester can just be reasonably solid, I think they stay up.
JR: Leicester, Southampton, Wolves. Pedro Neto might not have been fit an awful lot last season, but his presence will be missed, as will Max Kilman’s, leaving Wolves somewhat vulnerable should one promoted side enjoy a surge over 4-6 weeks to beat their expected points total.
Player of the season?
MD: William Saliba. Part of me thinks Arsenal will really step it up, in a team that is based on the solid foundations of that defence. If that is the case, and they can convert it to a title, Saliba's importance may be recognised in the way that Virgil van Dijk's has been in the past.
RJ: William Saliba - Already arguably the best centre-back in the division but if Arsenal are to win the league, it may bring a bigger recognition. But if City win the league, then Rodri may finally get the individual honours.
LB: If Arsenal win the title, it will be because Bukayo Saka dragged them there but as I've predicted City to triumph, let's say Rodri is imperious once again and their most irreplaceable player.
KJ: Bukayo Saka. Could this be the year Saka gets the big POTY gong? His consistently excellent displays for Arsenal are often overshadowed by a star performer at City, but should the Gunners be in a title challenge again they will need their “starboy” to keep on producing goals and assists on a regular basis.
KM: City players have won the PL POTS award for the past five years so as I've predicted them for the title, it's hard to see it moving away from that club for this award either. As Rodri is yet to claim it, let's go for him.
JR: Erling Haaland. From 36 goals in his debut season to just 27 goals last term, Haaland is poised for some positive regression, as coined across the pond, should he remain fit. More than 30 goals will be hard to ignore if City retain the title once again.
Golden boot?
MD: Erling Haaland. One of the main reasons it's hard not to just resort to picking City for champions. Two outsider bets are Alexander Isak, given his form, and Ivan Toney, if he moves.
RJ: The more interesting question is who will finish second to Erling Haaland. Twelve months ago, few would have expected it to be Cole Palmer. Now it could be Alexander Isak versus Mohamed Salah for second place.
LB: Erling Haaland had a 'bad' season last year and still won the Golden Boot by five goals, so it will be him. But in the interest of providing a more exciting answer, let's say that Alexander Isak stays fit all year and goes on a tear to take it.
KJ: Erling Haaland. Frankly, the Norwegian could be out of action for three months and still claim the top-scorer prize. Julian Alvarez’s departure should only emphasise Haaland’s constant starting role.
KM: Erling Haaland. They'll win the most games and he'll get the most chances. He's good at taking them, too.
JR: See above. But away from Haaland, and at a big price of 50/1 in places, Jackson might be worth a look given the outstanding talent assembled behind him and the fact that he is now settled in England.
Signing of the season?
MD: Tosin Adarabioyo. For all the justifiable criticism of Chelsea's business, the centre-half is someone who has looked set for a leap for some time.
RJ: Niclas Fullkrug - Admittedly, there is a risk to paying £27m for a 31-year-old who has had a serious knee injury, especially as players often get injured at West Ham and more strikers have failed than flourished there over the last 15 years. But Fullkrug has been prolific for clubs and country in recent years, a scorer in a Champions League semi-final, plus the World Cup and Euro 2024. An old-fashioned No 9, he is a glorious throwback. So, if nothing else, I hope he succeeds.
LB: If Emile Smith Rowe can stay fit, it will be fun seeing him play week in, week out at Fulham and Manchester United's trio of defensive transfers have also been smart. But I really like what West Ham have done to freshen up their squad under Julen Lopetegui and reigning Championship player of the year Crysencio Summerville was brilliant for Leeds, so looks primed to shine alongside the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paqueta and Niclas Fullkrug for the Hammers.
KJ: Archie Gray. A tough one, given the lack of signings by top clubs, but I’m most intrigued to see how the Tottenham teenager does following his £30m move from Leeds. In pre-season, Postecoglou has used the 18-year-old in midfield, right-back and central defence – an impressive range of versatility for someone so young.
KM: There aren't exactly dozens to choose from so far but Daichi Kamada for free is an absolute nonsense steal. Great player and perfect for the Palace setup. Riccardo Calafiori and Iliman Ndiaye should be good additions for Arsenal and Everton respectively.
JR: Max Kilman. West Ham look well placed for a big season and Kilman, signed for £40m, could thrive while leading the back four. While Jean-Clair Todibo could shine too, the former Wolves defender should slot right in and hit the ground running. An England call-up is surely not far away either.
What are you looking forward to the most?
MD: This season may well see the outcome of one of the biggest regulatory issues in modern football history with the Manchester City case and, while it will be beneficial for the game to have some kind of clarity, it isn't necessarily something to "look forward to". The fall-out could involve huge upheaval, to go with similar regulatory cases involving Chelsea, Everton and possibly Leicester. This is the new "legal era" of the Premier League, that has evolved out of what it should really be about: the football and the storylines. The latter are the real reasons for the competition's success, and its capacity for throwing up glorious chaos remains remarkable. It happens every season. Even those who feel like they are bored of football or find the prospect gaudy after a supposed purity of an event like the Olympics often find themselves immediately sucked in because, well, something incredible happens.
RJ: Like every summer, a host of exciting and intriguing new signings. Various ones I like for different reasons include Emile Smith Rowe, Riccardo Calafiori, Matthijs de Ligt, Ben Brereton Diaz, Ross Barkley, Archie Gray, Jean-Clair Todibo. Perhaps Aston Villa will bring the best from Amadou Onana; possibly there will be some footballing benefits from the PSR swap deals; maybe there will be some logic to Chelsea's 803 signings. It will be interesting to find out, anyway.
LB: Will eschew the normal sarcastic comment about looking forward to endless VAR debates and say that having Ipswich back in the top flight after 22 years away – with a highly-rated young manager in tow – will be a lot of fun. Similarly, seeing if Russell Martin can adapt his uber possession-based football at Southampton to survive in the Premier League or whether he'll be another dogmatic Vincent Kompany figure causing his side to be relegated will be fascinating (although Kompany inexplicably failed upwards into a job at Bayern Munich so maybe Martin should stick to his guns).
KJ: Cole Palmer is the man of the moment. A ridiculously impressive first season at Chelsea, coupled with star showings off the bench for England and a European Championship final goal, set in motion the bonkers nine-year contract (two-year extension) penned earlier this week. So, quite simply, can he match or even better last year’s performance level and numbers?
KM: How Arne Slot manages to mix continuity in some respects with alteration in others, and - although it's outside the Premier League - how the new Champions League, Europa and Conference Leagues format function in practice. Will it actually be exciting until the last game? Will people care if PSG and Real Madrid play each other on week one or five instead of the semis? Will finishing 23rd in a league table and still making the last 16 feel like an accomplishment, or will it be "fraudulent" progress?
JR: Working out how Brighton will line up and get on under Fabian Hurzeler, the 31-year-old manager can illustrate why he is one of the most exciting coaches in Europe. There’s so much young talent in this squad, while the returning Kaoru Mitoma and Julio Enciso will also make the Seagulls an entertaining watch each week.
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