With European spots more competitive than ever, will FA and League Cups see a revival?

Little margin for error for the Champions League spots but domestic cups provide route into Europe

One of the big themes of any Premier League season is always the race for Champions League places and, while there are usually a case of two or three teams being shoe-ins for any given campaign, a fierce battle inevitably ensues for the other spots.

Over the past few campaigns it has been commonplace to refer to the usual challengers as the Big Six - the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal - but quite aside from six into four not working out too well, other challengers have risen too.

Indeed, over the past two years it has been Leicester City who have occupied top-four positions for most of the campaigns, only to fall heartachingly short at the final hurdle, but their presence has meant Arsenal’s drop-off ensures they’ve had no chance to make the grade and Spurs are out this year too after three consecutive campaigns among Europe’s elite.

Add in the improvements made by West Ham United, the investment and resurgence of Aston Villa and the omnipresent possibility of a Leeds, Everton or similarly upward-looking club putting together a full campaign of opportunistic consistency and the fight for European spots has never been greater.

While getting into the top four might be the minimum requirement for some, there may have to be some context placed around league positions four to seven, maybe even eight. It could all be just a win or two to separate them, a fine margin between a successful campaign and an embarrassing-on-paper slide down the ladder. It also might make clubs consider the Europa League a viable alternative - we’ll wait and see exactly how the Europa Conference League pans out before deciding to unilaterally ridicule its existence.

But if Europa action becomes more accepted as a reasonable consolation prize, it’s not just fifth place in the Premier League which becomes desireable, it’s the domestic cups, too.

Indeed, there’s a chance that for the clubs who aren’t in the title running by the approach to December, the FA Cup and League Cup could be on managers’ minds a little earlier than usual, maybe seeing them put out stronger sides as a result - depending on the draws they are handed, of course.

There are two sides to that progression of events: the romantics might enjoy the return to the limelight of the FA Cup, for example, seeing big clubs place it somewhat more prominently again rather than opting for heavy rotation even against perceived rivals. The games would be more ‘meaningful’ for the fans in-stadium, the fixtures more appealing to broadcasters. An upward spiral ensues, with the top players keen to be involved in matches their club deems important, sponsors wanting to be associated with memorable clashes, and so on. Perhaps the decline of the magic of the cup is reversed.

Or, in perhaps the more likely version of that rose-tinted fable, clubs decide deeper squads are better, safer, and rather than play youngsters and fringe players, they opt for another senior addition, stockpile teens who might have otherwise gone on loan, and Manchester City win a fifth successive EFL Cup.

On the flip side of bigger clubs taking a bigger interest is that the second tier of sides may be further than ever from domestic success.

City, Man United, Liverpool and Chelsea have won all but one of the last 10 League Cup finals - Swansea City in 2013 the outlier - but Southampton, Cardiff, Bradford City, Sunderland and Aston Villa have all reached the final in that time, all had their day at Wembley with tens of thousands of fans and had their shot at glory.

In the FA Cup the trend is even more prevalent: Leicester have just won the famous piece of silverware for the first time ever but Watford, Crystal Palace, Villa, Hull, Stoke and Portsmouth have all made the final between 2010 and now, with Wigan Athletic’s 2013 triumph the pinnacle of those ‘non-big six’ clubs’ attempts to earn local immortality. There have, in fact, only been four ‘big six’ FA Cup final meetings in the last 14 years.

If cup success is seen as a viable alternative, that number could increase significantly, even if league positions and Champions League football remains the ultimate barometer of success.

Either way, a more fiercely fought battle for those top-four places is all but guaranteed this term, and finishing fifth in May 2022 could feasibly see a team only 10 points off the title - but a year away from mixing it with European football’s top table.