We can't shop, we might just drop

The controversial transfer window will open on a much-changed world on Wednesday. Jason Burt investigates

At 9am on Wednesday, staff at the Football Association will troop into their headquarters in Soho Square, central London, and wonder why they are there. And not just because it is New Year's Day. The football transfer window will officially be open, the phone lines will be manned – and very little is expected to happen.

The FA will probably be able to send the staff home early. It is difficult to gauge how busy they will be for the 30 days after that until the transfer window slams shut on 31 January, but no one is expecting a frenzy of activity or much money to be spent. A lot of window shopping may be taking place – but little spending.

It is a strange situation. The transfer window represents the only chance managers have to replenish their squads or offload unwanted players. But it is likely to be a frustrating time. Some experts predict no big-money signings at all, with the vast majority of deals involving players taken on loan until the end of the season or those who are out of contract.

In all probability, between £10m and £50m will change hands. That compares to £364m for the season 2001-02. In Scotland, the situation is even more dire. During last summer, excluding Rangers and Celtic, just £180,000 was spent – the same amount Sunderland paid Rangers for the striker Ally McCoist in 1986.

David Moyes may be riding high at Everton, but a big deal for him this January is likely to be the signing of midfielder Colin Healy from Celtic for £160,000, after he baulked at an asking price of £300,000. £300,000? That was peanuts only a few months ago.

This is the new financial reality of football. Gone are the days when clubs such as Bradford City will risk losing their shirt, literally, by spending big to stay in the big-time. Now the smaller clubs are all looking to copy Bolton Wanderers, who have a wage bill of £25m which is structured so that it falls to £5m if they are relegated. Players are on performance-related pay and many have contracts which will expire if the club drop out of the Premiership. Previously this was at the player's insistence; now it is at the club's.

Then there are players such as Youri Djorkaeff, the veteran French international credited with keeping Bolton in the Premiership last season. He was signed without a fee and although he is handsomely paid, his deal is totally linked to performance both by himself and the first team. If they go down, he goes. Steve Bruce, at Birmingham City, is likely to secure a similar deal when he signs Christophe Dugarry next month. His chairman, David Gold, has said that the club budgeted to be relegated, and any visitor to St Andrew's is told that plans to redevelop the ground will go ahead only if they stay up.

Managers are split over the transfer window. Some, such as Steve McClaren at Middlesbrough, say it has helped them budget and prevented them being distracted during the autumn. Others, including Terry Venables at Leeds, hate it. It probably all depends on where you are in the table – although, to be fair, neither Arsène Wenger or Sir Bobby Robson are fans. Lawyers, such as Tom Usher at SJ Berwin, suggest the system may even be illegal, and the Professional Footballers' Association have also protested.

The transfer window has been widely used across Europe for some time. In England, Premiership clubs can trade in January and for six weeks in the summer. The idea behind it is to bring more stability to the transfer market and to make clubs think more long-term. It was hoped it would provide greater security for players and prevent the richest clubs just opening their chequebooks. Although that had stopped anyway.

The money men are monitoring the situation closely. Financial analysts such as Dan Jones, director of Deloitte Touche's football unit, claim that the system is "a good thing". He says: "It will impose a good discipline on clubs. I think it will lead to a restructuring of the finances of football clubs and they will no longer be so badly run."

For bargain hunters some deals will be, well, as cheap as chips. "There are more sellers than buyers out there. It is a bit like the property market. When that happens, prices come down," Jones says. "There will not be any blockbuster deals and I think the volume of trading will be small." At another finance house, Bell Laurie Wright, director John Moore says that clubs, even those at the top, are busy trying to reduce the number of players they have on contracts. "The control is swinging back in favour of the club," he says. "It was unbalanced in favour of the player but that is changing."

What this means is that in future a player will be deemed to have a "long contract" if his deal runs for two years, unless he is a teenager. And, for more and more players, if they do not play, they will not be paid. No more will a club such as Chelsea pay £40,000 a week for Winston Bogarde to turn out for the reserves.

It may be impossible to introduce "wage caps" for individuals, but there will be "squad caps". As for the football agents, there will be two types. The first will be a wheeler-dealer who will handle a large number of players but not for very big deals. This will inevitably lead to part-time professionals. The second will be at the top end of the market and be more involved in media, advertising and image rights. This will be a fruitful area for an élite band of players. Think David Beckham, and the wrangle over his contract. Basic pay will become secondary.

Likewise, this does not mean there will be no more big-money signings at Old Trafford. After all, the club are still making startling profits. But there will be fewer. Similarly, Arsenal and Liverpool are still big players – but, after that, it starts to get a bit tricky. Some, such as Newcastle United, Tottenham, Manchester City and Chelsea, will know that if they splash the cash it will be a gamble.

And, again, as with the property market, many clubs will be asking themselves: is it worth risking the house right now?