The transfer window: Hit or miss?

Clubs seeking salvation through the transfer window which opens in two days' time should beware: spending big in January often does not work

Anything to get the deal done. The January transfer window opens for business in two days' time but the phone calls to chief scouts, the lists of names faxed to managers' offices and the silently mounting desperation among those club who badly need reinforcements started long ago. As is always the case in January, the strong look to fine-tune their push for trophies, while the weak pray for a player-saviour among the endless loans, sales and exchanges offered them.

The football world has already been alerted to the news that Liverpool are ready to spend and they need a centre-back and a right-winger. Birmingham City are frantically seeking out a left-back and possibly a centre-half. West Ham are in the market for a right-back and a striker if the required standard is available. For Aston Villa, a left-back and a centre-back are on the agenda. Manchester United already have a new centre-back. For Portsmouth and Sunderland, the requirements are less specific but no less urgent.

Past history, though, shows that spending big money in January is always a risk. Among the January transfer window failures in the past have been Louis Saha who arrived at Manchester United for £12.8m almost two years ago and, although undoubtedly talented, is no closer to establishing himself as a first choice at Old Trafford. Scott Parker has rebuilt his career at Newcastle after a £10m move from Charlton to Chelsea failed to work out. For others, like Michael Dawson and Dean Ashton, the window has been one of opportunity.

It is the fourth season that the new transfer regulations have been in operation and for many of those who work in the delicate business of player transfers, the restrictions on mid-season dealing to one month has not made a great deal of difference to the way clubs trade players. Colin Gordon, of Key Sports management, who numbers Steve McClaren, David James, Chris Kirkland and Theo Walcott among his clients, said that those clubs who rely on a late deal have often not done their planning in advance.

"It hasn't made a great deal of difference, you get to the end of August and clubs panic," he said. "Clubs haven't trusted their judgement and they have always thought that something would come along. Then January comes and they panic and spend lots of money. The clubs that plan correctly and realise they need a player in a certain position will be OK; those who haven't scouted and assessed their strengths and weaknesses will mess it up."

Leon Angel, the chief executive of Base Soccer, whose clients include Gilberto Silva, Juan Pablo Angel, Aaron Lennon and Crystal Palace's Andy Johnson, said that only 30 per cent of the year's transfer business took place in January. "I don't think the transfer window has worked particularly well because it seems too much is done in too short a time," he said. "I don't think that's the best way to make your decisions. The tendency at the moment is for loan deals, which helps the smaller clubs who do not have to buy and the bigger clubs who can reduce their squads."

The best place to start the human traffic of the January transfer window is at the very top. Chelsea are committed to making only loan signings next month and first choice will be cover for Michael Essien, who could miss up to four games while playing for Ghana in the Africa Cup of Nations and is also suspended for both legs of the Champions' League tie against Barcelona. The club have enquired about the availability of the midfielder Maniche, a protégé of Jose Mourinho's at Porto and now, unusually, playing for Dynamo Moscow.

The 28-year-old, converted from a winger to a central midfielder by Mourinho, signed a contract with the Russian club in the summer that tripled his wages and earned more than £10m for Porto.

Under the guidance of Mourinho's agent Jorge Mendes, an emergent power in football, Maniche agreed a five-year deal at Dynamo, who have signed his brother, Jorge Ribeiro, as well as a number of former Porto players, including Costinha and the Brazilian Derlei. However, Maniche and his wife have failed to settle in Moscow and if he joins Chelsea it will be on a loan arrangement with an option to buy at the end of the season.

The main business this January for Manchester United was concluded early with the £7.2m signing of the Serbian centre-back Nemanja Vidic, for whom they outbid Fiorentina and Liverpool, from Spartak Moscow on Christmas Day and they are likely to leave any move for a new midfielder until the summer. United will watch Michael Carrick's contract negotiations at Tottenham with interest over the next few months, especially if he continues to develop into one of the country's best holding midfield players.

The signing of Vidic meant that Rafael Benitez lost his first choice for a new centre-half and now he has to decide whether he moves for Daniel Agger of Brondby or one of two from Deportivo La Coruña - Cesar and Fabricio Coloccini. The Benfica striker Simao Sabrosa, who came within a few hours of joining Liverpool in the summer until his club raised the price to £12.8m, is more of a long shot now that his club have qualified for the knock-out stages of the Champions' League

Among those looking to sell are Tottenham who have already agreed in principle to sell Sean Davis back to Fulham less than 18 months after he came from Craven Cottage. Their midfielder Michael Brown has also been the subject of interest from Birmingham, Portsmouth and Manchester City and will be allowed to leave. Anthony Gardner, whose move to Charlton collapsed in the summer, is also available for sale, as is the Portuguese midfielder Pedro Mendes.

Paul Jewell said yesterday that his pursuit of the Turkish striker Fatih Tekke was "categorically" at an end and he will turn his attention to Dean Ashton of Norwich City, who is also a target for Manchester City. Tekke, 28, who was the top goalscorer in Turkey's failed World Cup qualification campaign and with club side Trabzonspor leads his country's league charts with 21 goals, was the subject of a £3.57m bid from Wigan, but a new club board at Trabzonspor refused to sanction the move.

Two of the more intriguing stories of the transfer window will involve Theo Walcott, the precocious winger at Southampton who will turn 17 in March, and David Nugent, 20, who moved from Bury to Preston last January. There are serious concerns that Walcott - who has been courted by Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal and could yet be sold by George Burley to raise funds to rebuild his team - is playing far too much senior football in a struggling team to allow him to develop properly.

Nugent, who turned 20 in May, impressed for Bury last season and many believed that his move to Preston had come too early. However, as one of the brightest young players in the Championship he is now being considered as a serious option by David Moyes, who is keen to bring another striker to Everton. The biggest transfer window mystery, as ever, is Arsenal who, despite their obvious need for a central midfielder, are understood only to be interested in a defender in the short term.

Manchester City are chasing a second-choice goalkeeper as cover for David James but have ruled out a move for Derby County's England Under-21 international Lee Camp. They are now looking abroad but, like Wigan, have also considered a move for Ashton, who went to Carrow Road from Crewe Alexander for £3m in last January's window and is understood to favour a move back to the North-west.

The West Ham manager Alan Pardew would be prepared to pay Crystal Palace £6m for striker Andy Johnson but, with the play-offs in sight, Simon Jordan is adamant that he will not countenance a deal for his £20,000-a-week England international. Pardew may also look at the top scorer in Denmark, Mads Junker of FC Nordsjaelland, who has attracted interest from Mick McCarthy at Sunderland and Harry Redknapp at Portsmouth and at a fee of less than £700,000 he would not put undue strain on the budget of the Premiership's strugglers. Redknapp is also interested in the Panathinaikos striker Emanuel Olisadebe.

The Bolton manager, Sam Allardyce, has expressed an interest in Feyenoord midfielder Shinji Ono as his squad will be weakened by the loss of four players on Africa Cup of Nations duty.

But 1 January will not only be the starting gun for transfer activity, it is also the day the Football Association's new regulations on agents come into place. For the first time clubs will have the option of paying a player's agent fee themselves - it simplifies tax issues - and no footballers will be able to sign a deal with an agent before they are in their 16th year. The FA will also maintain a website with the details of every player's representatives - one more measure that will ensure that the mobile phones of football's agents ring even more often during the month of January.

Team-by-team guide to the possible comings and goings in the January sales

ARSENAL

Budget: Anything between £20m and £60m

Need: Central midfielder and striker

Linked with: Emmanuel Adebayor (striker, Monaco), Theo Walcott (forward, Southampton), Olivier Dacourt (midfielder, Roma), Dirk Kuyt (striker) and Hossam Ghaly (midfielder, both Feyenoord), Didier Zakora (midfielder, St Etienne)

Possible departures: None

Prediction: Arséne Wenger will bid for Walcott, Adebayor and Zakora

ASTON VILLA

Budget: Up to £5m

Need: Centre-back and midfielder

Linked with: Robert Huth (defender, Chelsea), Steed Malbranque (midfielder, Fulham), Lee Bowyer (midfielder, Newcastle)

Possible departures: Eric Djemba-Djemba, Juan Pablo Angel, Jlloyd Samuel, Mark Delaney, Gareth Barry, Ulises de la Cruz

Prediction: David O'Leary will attempt to get Huth on loan. Barry on his way to Newcastle and de la Cruz to Celtic

BIRMINGHAM CITY

Budget: £4m

Need: Two defenders, striker

Linked with: Robert Earnshaw (striker, West Brom), Steve Kabba (forward, Sheffield Utd), Robert Huth (defender, Chelsea), Izale McLeod (striker, MK Dons), Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (striker, Man Utd), Lee Bowyer (midfielder, Newcastle), Michael Brown (midfielder, Tottenham)

Possible departures: Walter Pandiani and Mario Melchiot

Prediction: Like for like. Earnshaw or McLeod to replace Pandiani

BLACKBURN ROVERS

Budget: Minimal

Need: Centre-back

Linked with: Zurab Khizanishvili (defender, Rangers, currently on loan at Blackburn), David Nugent (striker, Preston), Mark Delaney (right-back, Aston Villa)

Possible departures: Paul Gallacher, Matt Jansen

Prediction: Mark Hughes will try to make Khizanishvili's deal permanent and make a bid for Delaney, subject to transfer funds

BOLTON WANDERERS

Budget: Around £6.5m

Need: Defender and midfielder. Four players, including centre-back Radhi Jaidi, are due to play in the Africa Cup of Nations in January

Linked with: Shinji Ono (midfielder, Feyenoord), Abdoulaye Meite (defender, Marseilles)

Possible departures: Jussi Jasskelainen

Prediction: Meite is the top target. Manager Sam Allardyce will also bid for Ono to fill the Africa Cup of Nations gap

CHARLTON

Budget: £5m

Need: Goalkeeper, striker, midfielder and a defender

Linked with: Antti Niemi (goalkeeper, Soton), Boaz Myhill (goalkeeper, Hull City), Dean Ashton (striker, Norwich), Marcus Bent (striker, Everton), Lee Bowyer (midfielder, Newcastle), Lee Trundle (striker, Swansea), Anthony Gardner (defender, Spurs)

Possible departures: Jason Euell, Jonathan Johansson, Francis Jeffers

Prediction: Alan Curbishley will sign a goalkeeper and at least one forward

CHELSEA

Budget: Unlimited

Need: Midfielder, because Michael Essien is away for Africa Cup of Nations and is suspended for both Barcelona games.

Linked with: Theo Walcott (forward, Southampton), Maniche (midfielder, Dinamo Moscow)

Possible departures: Jose Mourinho wants no one to leave, but Robert Huth, Carlton Cole or Glen Johnson may be allowed to leave on loan

Prediction: Strong chance a midfielder will arrive. Mourinho bid for Walcott

EVERTON

Budget: Around £6m

Need: Striker and midfielder

Linked with: David Nugent (forward, Preston), Sean Davis (midfielder) and Robbie Keane (forward, both Tottenham), Thomas Gravesen (midfielder, Real Madrid), Angelos Basinas (midfielder, Panathinaikos), Antti Niemi (goalkeeper, Southampton), Andy Johnson (striker, C Palace)

Possible departures: Marcus Bent

Prediction: Striker in, probably Nugent. Another bid for Keane?

FULHAM

Budget: Minimal

Need: Midfielder

Linked with: Sean Davis (midfielder, Tottenham), Wayne Bridge (left-back, Chelsea)

Possible departures: Only a substantial fee could tempt Chris Coleman to sell either Luis Boa Morte, Steed Malbranque or Papa Bouba Diop. But Sylvain Legwinski could move on

Prediction: If Coleman loses one of the big three - Boa Morte, Diop or Malbranque - arrivals are likely, especially a return for fans' favourite Davis

LIVERPOOL

Budget: £20m

Need: Centre-back and right-midfielder

Linked with: Simao Sambrosa (right-winger, Benfica), Vincent Kompany (defender, Anderlecht), Cesar and Fabrizio Coloccini (defenders, Deportivo La Coruña), Gabriel Paletta (defender, Banfield), Daniel Agger (defender, Brondby)

Possible departures: Jerzey Dudek, Josemi, Djbril Cissé

Prediction: Dudek to leave and a defender, most likely Kompany, to sign

MANCHESTER CITY

Budget: £5m

Need: Striker and midfielder

Linked with: Dean Ashton (striker, Norwich), Emmanuel Adebayor (striker, Monaco), Steed Malbranque (midfielder, Fulham), Thomas Haapala (midfielder, MyPa), Albert Riera (winger, Espanyol), Michael Brown (midfielder, Tottenham)

Possible departures: Robbie Fowler and Kasper Schmeichel (loan)

Prediction: Haapala to join, Schmeichel to leave. Priced out of Ashton bid

MANCHESTER UTD

Budget: Unknown

Need: Central defender and central midfielder

Linked with: Thomas Gravesen (midfielder, Real Madrid), Michael Carrick (midfielder, Tottenham)

Possible departures: Louis Saha, Liam Miller and Mikael Silvestre

Prediction: A bid for Gravesen and midfielder Miller to depart

Done deal: United have signed the 24-year-old centre-back Nemanja Vidic from Spartak Moscow for £7.2m

MIDDLESBROUGH

Budget: Around £5m

Need: Central midfielder

Linked with: Rudolphe Douala (midfielder Sporting Lisbon), Didier Agathe (forward, Celtic), Sean Davis (midfielder, Tottenham), Abdoulaye Meite (defender, Marseilles)

Possible departures: Szilard Nemeth, Mark Viduka. Viduka may look for first team football in a World Cup year

Prediction: Douala in, Nemeth to leave on loan. Steve McClaren will be in the race for Sean Davis

NEWCASTLE UNITED

Budget: £10m

Need: Centre-back, centre-midfielder and striker

Linked with: Robert Huth (defender, Chelsea), Antonio Cassano (striker, Roma), Thomas Gravesen (midfielder, Real Madrid), Robbie Neilson (midfielder, Hearts), Mark Viduka (striker, Middlesbrough), Gareth Barry (left-midfielder, Aston Villa)

Possible departures: Lee Bowyer, Amdy Faye, Albert Luque

Prediction: Barry to arrive from Aston Villa and Luque to stay.

PORTSMOUTH

Budget: £4m

Need: Centre-back, central midfielder and attacker

Linked with: Emmanuel Olisadebe (forward, Panathinaikos), Marcel Desailly (defender, unattached), Sean Davis & Michael Brown (both midfielders, Tottenham), Mads Junker (striker, FC Nordsjaelland)

Possible departures: Konstantinos Chalkias, Giannis Skopolitis, Dario Silva - anyone not bought by Harry Redknapp

Prediction: Olisadebe and Desailly to sign on loan until the end of the season

SUNDERLAND

Budget: £2m maximum

Need: The squad needs strengthening in all departments

Linked with: Alan Thompson (midfielder, Celtic), Stephen Pearson (midfielder, Celtic), Mads Junker (striker, FC Nordsjaelland)

Possible departures: Alan Stubbs

Prediction: Few changes will be made due to the low transfer funds. Manager Mick McCarthy is more likely to get players in on loan than he is to buy, unless players are sold

TOTTENHAM

Budget: £14m but depends on player sales

Need: Striker and defender

Linked with: Dirk Kuyt (striker, Feyenoord), Theo Walcott (forward, Southampton), Wayne Bridge (left-back, Chelsea), Henrik Larsson (striker, Barcelona)

Possible departures: Sean Davis, Michael Brown, Pedro Mendes, Anthony Gardner, Noureddine Naybet, Andy Reid

Prediction: Bids expected for Kuyt and Walcott. Bridge as an outside chance

WEST BROM

Budget: Minimal

Need: Two defenders

Linked with: Badou Kere (centre-back, Charleroi), Jaroslaw Bieniuk (centre-back, Amica Wronki), Carlos Edwards (midfielder, Luton)

Possible departures: Jason Koumas and Robert Earnshaw

Prediction: Bryan Robson will make bids for Kere and Bieniuk. Earnshaw looks on his way out either to Birmingham or Charlton. Koumas to sign for Cardiff on a permanent deal

WEST HAM

Budget: £10m

Need: Striker is a priority

Linked with: Dean Ashton (striker, Norwich City), Andy Johnson (striker, Crystal Palace), Benni McCarthy (striker, Porto), Emmanuel Adebayor (striker, Monaco), Mads Junker (striker, FC Nordsjaelland), Phil Jagielka (midfielder, Sheffield United)

Possible departures: Tomas Repka

Prediction: Bids for Johnson, Ashton, McCarthy and Adebayor

Done deal: Striker Yaniv Katan has signed from Maccabi Haifa for free

WIGAN ATHLETIC

Budget: £10m

Need: Defender and striker

Linked with: Dean Ashton (striker, Norwich), Fatih Tekke (forward, Trabzonspor), Scott Brown (forward, Hibernian), Paddy Kenny (goalkeeper, Sheffield United), Lamine Sakho (striker, currently on-trial from St Etienne), Boaz Myhill (goalkeeper, Hull City)

Possible departures: None

Prediction: Tekke to sign for £3.5m

Done deal: Defender Paul Scharner has signed from Brann Bergen for £2.5m