Football may not be coming home – again

England's World Cup 2018 bid is faltering as chiefs face race against time

(afp/getty images)

They are wheeling out the big guns – Prince William, Prime Minister David Cameron and a host of other VIPs – but will it be enough to get them over the line? After two years of endless meetings, exhaustive travelling and a series of unwanted setbacks, England's relentless campaign to stage the 2018 World Cup looks set to end in tears in Zurich this week unless they can pull off a remarkable comeback in the final, frantic four days of lobbying for the votes of the 22 Fifa executive committee members.

Just as the London 2012 Olympic campaign upset the odds down the final straight, so England's bid team hope to have nosed ahead of Russia and Spain/Portugal by the time Fifa's president Sepp Blatter opens the proverbial envelope on Thursday.

England's team are already convinced they could not have done much more and that only politics stand in their way. Unlike the 2006 campaign

that was marred by "Football's Coming Home" arrogance and a total disregard of the gentleman's agreement for Germany to be World Cup hosts in exchange for England having staged Euro 96 – acknowledged by everyone in Europe, it seems, except England – this campaign has been whiter than white in an effort to make friends and influence people.

Ironically, that transparency could end up contributing to England's downfall as rumours of collusion between Spain/Portugal and 2022 World Cup hopefuls Qatar persist despite both countries being exonerated by Fifa's ethics committee earlier this month.

The Qatari voting member Mohammed bin Hammam's public admission that he will vote for Spain along with the three-strong South American bloc has only served to fuel speculation that a deal has been done. "Asia supports the Iberian bid," he said. "Qatar is going to support Spain and Portugal but that doesn't mean there has been a pact between us. We are not breaking any rules."

The Independent on Sunday has learned that the father of Qatar's 2022 chief executive Hassan al-Thawadi is understood to have served as ambassador to Spain during the 1980s. None of this constitutes evidence of a conspiracy but England's tacit admission that they are behind in the race despite Fifa endorsing a technically excellent bid and Blatter describing England as the "motherland" of football are bound, right up until the last moment, to have tongues wagging.

If collusion doesn't scupper England's last chance to host the tournament for the best part of 20 years, then the recent allegations of corruption within Fifa's inner sanctum might. World football's governing body is an austere and tight-knit grouping who don't take kindly to seeing any of their own hung out to dry. The suspensions of six Fifa officials, including two voting members, is in danger of causing the worst possible backlash, however much England's bid team try to distance themselves from the reports and however unfair it would be for Fifa to blame Andy Anson, David Dein and the rest of the bid team. Tomorrow's BBC Panorama programme, expected to heap even more embarrassment on Fifa, is awaited with trepidation.

With the candidate with fewest votes eliminated, the strategy in Zurich appears to be securing enough support to squeeze through the first round, then picking up more votes to march confidently on. England point to the fact that France only just edged out Turkey 7-6 for Euro 2016 even though they had led 10-3 the night before.

The hope is that whoever delivers England's 30-minute final presentation on Thursday morning will make a stronger impression than the rivals, not least Russia for whom the likely appearance of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is being viewed there as a massive trump card to go with the country's strong legacy message and unlimited financial backing.

The worst case scenario for England would be for some voters to support underdogs Holland and Belgium early on, deliberately eliminating England in the process, then switch to Russia or Spain. Dein, the bid president, hopes that won't happen. "Maybe in certain cases we will not be their first choice but what we have to do is make sure we are their second choice when it comes to totting up," he said. "You never know who may just change their minds at the last minute."

Dein, a former FA and Arsenal vice-chairman, admitted the early stages of the bid were fraught with too many problems, not least the resignation of FA chairman Lord Triesman and several changes of personnel in the team. "The bid initially, it's no secret, was troubled. I think we could have done without certain of the early own goals and I like to think we have overcome those. Having said that, we know there have been certain rumblings in the background on which I would say – and I use the word carefully – I think perhaps have been unhelpful. But you have to deal with it and move on."

Moving on has meant leaving no stone unturned in cultivating relationships. With the much-touted African bloc – reduced from four to three following Amos Adamu's suspension – increasingly likely to abandon England in favour of Russia or Spain/Portugal, England desperately need the three Concacaf members led by the veteran Jack Warner in the bag early on. Then it's a question of wait and hope that enough other voters will jump aboard, not least Uefa president Michel Platini or a few of his European colleagues.

The 2022 hosts will be announced at the same time with all the talk about a three-horse race between the United States, who offer sold-out stadiums and a huge financial windfall for Fifa; Australia, the last great untapped region not to have hosted, with a strong emotional appeal and a sports-mad public; and Qatar, which has a legacy programme for the entire Middle East.

Everyone involved in the process, from Bin Hammam to Blatter himself, acknowledges that simultaneous secret ballots have created more problems than they have solved but England's campaign has tried to remain focused. "It has been exhausting but for me it was always a labour of love," says Dein. "For the last three months I've spent five nights in my own bed. I've been privileged to be at the top level for over 25 years and I felt I had to give something back to the game. This was an opportunity for me to try and help because I desperately want England to host the World Cup.

"We can talk for as long as we like about England's stadia and training facilities, our transport, the passion of our fans. But there's only a certain number of times you can tell people. After a while they'll accept it or not. In the end it will come down to relationships and whether they think England is the right country to host it, not just the technical aspect. One's got to hope we've given them enough ammunition to vote for us. You can never tell with football politics."