Swede's leadership undermined by faith in England 'rabble'

England have played more important matches under his tenure, notably the World Cup and Euro 2004 quarter-finals, but no contest in Sven Goran Eriksson's reign has been so critical to his own future as tonight's against Poland. For the first time since Eriksson arrived nearly four years ago defeat could - indeed, should - result in his dismissal.

England have played more important matches under his tenure, notably the World Cup and Euro 2004 quarter-finals, but no contest in Sven Goran Eriksson's reign has been so critical to his own future as tonight's against Poland. For the first time since Eriksson arrived nearly four years ago defeat could - indeed, should - result in his dismissal.

Given the long-held belief that Eriksson's rational approach to management would eventually bear fruit this view is reluctantly arrived at, especially when there are few credible successors who the Football Association could expect to secure.

However, for the dwindling band of Eriksson supporters among professional observers of the national team, Saturday's draw in Vienna was an alarming night. The result was not the reason. A draw, away from home in the opening tie of a World Cup qualifying campaign, is not a bad result. Ask Greece, the European champions, who lost in Albania. The bulk of the performance, too, was good. For 70 minutes England were a class above an Austrian team who are not as bad as some would have it. Forget the Fifa ranking of 90th: the politics surrounding the game's world governing body mean those rankings are intrinsically biased against European teams: a more accurate grading would be 50th. In addition, the bulk of the Austrian team was in the AK Graz side which won at Anfield last month, an achievement which remains creditable even if it is no longer rare.

The problem was what happened when Austria scored. England descended into a leaderless rabble, albeit one that was a width of the post from winning through Jermain Defoe's shot. England have conceded leads before, but on the last occasion, against Portugal in a game with much higher stakes, they responded with skill and fortitude. In Vienna they disintegrated.

The cause appeared to be more psychological than tactical. The team's support for their beleaguered manager is so deep as to be unhealthy. When the game went awry the inevitable consequences of failure - renewed criticism of everybody, and increased pressure on Eriksson - loomed all too large. The players became tense and unable to play to their ability.

There are only two ways this plotline can develop. Either England start winning, and continue to do so, or Eriksson is fired. Winning will keep the hounds at bay, while failure to do so will ratchet up the pressure to a level which will paralyse the only people who can alleviate it: the players.

Eriksson's flak jacket is his contract, the one that demands £13m compensation. It is a frightening figure for an organisation with the FA's debts, but failing to reach the World Cup would also be financially catastrophic. The FA has never sacked a manager for failing in a tournament, only for not qualifying - or looking like not doing so.

Poor qualifying campaigns prompted the exits of Kevin Keegan, Graham Taylor and even Sir Alf Ramsey. Significantly, the momentum for change has been driven from within the FA as well as by Grub Street. Internal opposition brought down Bobby Robson and Terry Venables. To have both FA mandarins and results going against you is a tough combination to withstand.

On past evidence Eriksson's response will be to trust in his players to deliver. Yet they have increasingly let him down, and that they recognise this does not, in these circumstances, necessarily help.

Before the introduction of transfer windows the recourse of a club manager with a failing team was a new signing. The motive was not so much to introduce additional talent as to bring in someone unaffected by the prevailing timidity and despondency, who could give everyone a lift. Eriksson's equivalent would be to play Defoe and Shaun Wright-Phillips. They would bring fresh legs and the fearlessness of youth. Conversely, David James should be retained. Making him the scapegoat for Saturday's draw will only increase the tension within the team.

Such is the weight of received opinion against Eriksson in the media, and the degree of plotting to remove him within the FA, one victory will not be enough. Even should England win every other qualifying game the pressure will remain until they reach at least the World Cup semi-finals - and even then the more trenchant critics would argue that was despite Eriksson. Victory tonight would, though, reduce the clamour for change to a resistible level. Defeat and the FA will start digging down the back of Soho Square's plush sofas in search of £13m.