France vs Germany preview: Les Bleus have found form just in time to reach the final, says Danny Higginbotham

Didier Deschamps has finally come across a way to get the best out of his talented frontline

Giroud and Griezmann embrace after the former's opening goal against Iceland (Getty)

Tournaments are often won by players and teams who hit their stride at the right time, and that is why I am backing France to beat Germany in their semi-final in Marseille on Thursday night.

Germany have played some excellent football so far but in France’s last one and a half games they have finally found the right system to get the most out of their best player, Antoine Griezmann, and it has been brilliant to watch. That is why I now make them favourites to win the whole tournament in the final on Sunday, as much as I would love to see Wales win it.

What we have seen, since half-time in France’s last-16 win over the Republic of Ireland in Lyon, is an absolute transformation in how they play. In the second half of that game, and then the quarter-final against Iceland, they scored seven goals. In their first three and a half games – facing Romania, Albania and Switzerland in the group stage – they only scored three goals.

I know France’s performance in beating Iceland 5-2 has been played down by some people, but I do not think that it should be. Iceland were a strong defensive unit who only conceded four goals in their first four matches. They went further in the competition than any of France’s group stage opponents, and played better football. France’s display on Sunday night at the Stade de France should not be undervalued.

France's average positions vs Romania (Opta)

Because what France did against Ireland and Iceland is hit a level of attacking football that looked far beyond them in the first few games. When France opened the tournament against Romania almost one month ago, Didier Deschamps played a 4-3-3 with Griezmann and Dimitri Payet either side of Olivier Giroud. Griezmann looked lost, too level with Giroud to play off him, as you can see from the attached graphic. He was hauled off in the second half. He did not start the second game against Albania, although he came off the bench and scored. He still did not look anything like the player who had taken Atletico Madrid within inches of the Champions League trophy just a few weeks before.

It was only at half-time in the Ireland game that Deschamps found the right system, to get the best out of Griezmann and his whole team: a 4-2-3-1 that is almost a 4-4-1-1. With Griezmann playing off Olivier Giroud he has space to run into, and they now have a relationship that is almost as good as the one Griezmann has with Fernando Torres for Atletico. That is how Griezmann scored two of his goals against Ireland and Iceland. He is now the top scorer of the tournament so far with four.

What Germany need to do today is to guard against those combinations, when Giroud holds the ball up or lays it off to Griezmann who is running in behind. If Germany had their first-choice centre-back pairing of Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng, it would work very naturally. Boateng is the aggressive defender who would challenge Giroud for the first ball. Hummels would sit back, wait, and cover Griezmann’s runs in behind.

But Hummels is suspended for Thursday’s game, which I think is a nonsense policy having only collected two yellow cards from five matches. Yellow cards should be wiped out after the last-16, or the bar should be higher, with bans coming in after four bookings, not two. This policy, which is also keeping Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey out of their semi-final tonight, is grossly unfair and has to be looked at for future tournaments.

France's average positions vs Iceland (Opta)

This means that, presuming Germany go back to 4-2-3-1, it will be Boateng and Benedikt Howedes together at centre-back tomorrow night. They are a less natural pairing, as both players are aggressive defenders who like to go out and win the ball. But if they both try and do that when France play the ball up to Giroud, they will leave far too much space for Griezmann to exploit.

Stopping the Giroud and Griezmann partnership is the single biggest issue Germany have to solve between now and tomorrow night. Boateng and Howedes will have to be alert to it, and so will whoever plays in defensive midfield. With Sami Khedira out and Bastian Schweinsteiger a doubt, Joachim Loew may use Emre Can or Julian Weigl in that role. Whoever it is should help his centre-backs by marking Giroud from the front, dropping in and stopping him from getting the ball on his chest, or laying it off to Griezmann. If the German defensive midfielder does that, then Boateng and Howedes can be more compact at the back.

Deschamps' 4-2-3-1 has reinvigorated his side (Getty)

With no Hummels, Khedira or Mario Gomez, Germany are without part of the spine of their team and that is why I think they are vulnerable tomorrow. Didier Deschamps has a selection quandary of his own, with the return of N’golo Kante from suspension. There is an argument for bringing Kante in for Blaise Matuidi in defensive midfield, which might strengthen France’s ability to close down Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and Julian Draxler. He could even move Matuidi or Paul Pogba out onto the right wing, in place of Moussa Sissoko, although Sissoko does give them important balance.

But what Deschamps must not do is rip up his system just because Kante is back. He has found the right balance at the perfect time, and it would make no sense to change it now, with the final in his sights.