Euro 2016 final: If France score in first 20 minutes against Portugal, they'll lift the trophy, says Danny Higginbotham

France need to earn the right to counter-attack through an early goal, but the longer it stays 0-0 then Portugal will grow in confidence

Antonie Griezmann can lead France's counter-attack against Portugal but they need to score early to prosper (Getty)

The Stade de France will be a noisy emotional place on Sunday night and I am sure that France will try to ride that wave in the opening minutes of the final, to get them an early goal. That is what France tried to do against Germany in Marseille on Thursday night and it nearly worked.

France won that semi-final despite not scoring an early goal, but they needed that penalty decision just before half-time to go their way. On Sunday night, against a Portugal side set up to counter-attack, I believe that an early goal will be even more important to the course of the game.

Didier Deschamps will send his players to fly out of the blocks at Portugal at 100 miles per hour. France have enough pace, power and quality in their side that they have to be confident of overwhelming Portugal early on. All Portugal will hope to do in that crucial opening 20 minutes is just hang on for dear life, hoping that they can survive with their goal still intact. Then they can think about counter-attacking themselves, and the space left behind Patrice Evra.

On Wednesday night Germany managed to survive the early French barrage and having done so they gained a foothold in the game. With better finishing they would have gone 1-0 up and it would have been a very different game.

The reason why France will have to attack from the start is because they are hosts, favourites, and will be facing a Portugal side happy to sit back and defend. The onus will be on France and they have to make the most of it. But in reality we know that this France side is not a possession-based side. Like Portugal, they play their best football on the counter-attack. And only by scoring early on, and forcing the Portuguese to come out and attack, can France do that.

Modern football is about earning the right to play on the counter, as I have written in this column before. That is what France would love to be able to do tomorrow. If they sit back and defend they will always be confident in attacking with the pace of Antoine Griezmann, Moussa Sissoko and Dimitri Payet running in behind. Griezmann has made himself one of the best players in Europe at a counter-attacking Atletico Madrid side who barely have any possession, but know how to make the most of it.

So if France score early, sit back and play on the break, I am very confident that they would go on to win comfortably and lift the trophy at the end. But if France cannot score in that crucial first 20 minutes, I think it will become a different game.

Portugal will know that France will not be able to keep up their early intensity for 90 minutes. Against Germany France dropped their level after 10 minutes and were nearly punished for it. So if France do not get that early goal they will have a decision to make, about how whether they keep attacking or drop off. But the more they keep throwing at Portugal, the more vulnerable they will be on the counter.

The longer the game goes on at 0-0, the more nervous and frustrated France get, the happier the Portuguese will be. They did not have an excellent group phase but their success owes to Fernando Santos’ realising that this is not an effective possession team. Just look at the possession statistics.

When Portugal drew 1-1 with Iceland they had 72 per cent possession. When they drew 0-0 with Austria they had 53 per cent. And when they drew 3-3 with Hungary they had 63 per cent. Only in the knock-out rounds, when Santos had a clearer idea of how he wants his team to play, did they have less of the ball and get better results: 41 per cent in beating Croatia 1-0, 48 per cent in their 1-1 draw with Poland, and 44 per cent in their 2-0 win over Wales.

Nani can win the match for Portugal if they are allowed to play on the counter (Getty)

Santos will want Sunday to go exactly the same way, sitting back, waiting for France to make a mistake, and then taking advantage of it. This Portugal team may only have two genuine match-winners in it, in Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani, far fewer than France, but those two have shown so far that they can get Portugal over the line.

And I think they will spot in this France team a gap they can exploit. Evra is a fantastic player and professional but the way that France play means that he has to provide a lot of their width down the left. Payet likes to cut inside, so Evra has to overlap on that side. Whereas on the right Sissoko tends to stay wide, which means Bacary Sagna backs up the play.

Evra's ability to cover the space behind him could decide the game (Reuters)

So when Evra breaks forward there will be space down Portugal’s right flank for them to attack. If they are clever they will have Nani and right-back Cedric Soares targeting there to fire in crosses for Cristiano Ronaldo, who showed again against Wales how good he is in the air.

This threat on the break is why I think that Deschamps might make one change from the team who beat Iceland and Germany, and bring N’Golo Kante back into the team. I know that Blaise Matuidi has done well alongside Paul Pogba but Kante is better defensively, at anticipating danger and closing it off. If they are throwing everything they have at Portugal then they will not be able to do without the extra protection that Kante gives them.

The longer the final goes on at 0-0, the more nervous and cautious the hosts will get. Portugal will want to drag the evening out for as long as possible. France will want to end it instantly at the start. After the first 20 minutes we should have a good idea which way it is going to go.